News Quieting – Volatility to Follow
As we typically see this time of year, the news flow is quieting down and the markets have been even quieter. This trend is supposed to be in place for the rest of the year. The markets may have a day or two where they hit a pocket of air, much like you experience when flying, but overall, the trend is to see a mild drift higher. As I have written about for more than a month, any and all […]
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Date: December 17, 2020
Seasonal Low This Week – Big Bears Still Wrong
As you know I have been writing about this very mild patch of seasonal softness in early to mid-December. Historically, it is ends this week at some point. Given how little stocks have pulled back, it is entirely possible that all we end up seeing is some sideways action with a percent or two on the downside. This is also the period where small caps historically outperform large caps from mid-December through early January. A year ago, I was sounding […]
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Date: December 14, 2020
Seasonal Headwind But Junk is Stress Free
Stocks continue to digest and very mildly pull back. The NASDAQ 100 has been the “worst”, but still barely noticeable so far. As I keep mentioning we are in a seasonally soft time of year for another week. That doesn’t mean crash, just a mild headwind. I fully expect the media to again report on the plethora of negative news. Record COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Stimulus stalled for the umpteenth time. Government runs out of money tonight. But keep […]
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Date: December 11, 2020
When the Ducks Quack, Wall Street Feeds Them
For the past week or so I have been writing about a mild seasonal soft patch that usually occurs right about now. It’s the post-Thanksgiving to mid-December period of digestion where we typically see the rally moderate, flatten out and then mildly pull back. All the signs were there that the peak was on Wednesday morning. Should the major indices immediately recover and find new highs, my thesis will be wrong. Otherwise, I will look for a low next week […]
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Date: December 10, 2020
December With a New Party in Power
Last week, we looked at the seasonally strong month of December and what tailwinds were ahead. Recall, that there is also a small headwind which begins now when it blows. Should this soft patch develop, it is usually nothing more than a pause or mild pullback of a few percent lasting up to two weeks. With a change of power in the White House, I went back and checked December performance. Since 1992, the bulls have a perfect record. Keep […]
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Date: December 7, 2020
Seasonal Soft Patch, Sector Rotation and the Greenback’s Plunge
As I started to mention the other day, during this time of year we have a very light, seasonal soft patch in stocks that usually begins with the rally moderating, then going sideways and finally pulling back mildly. With momentum so strong right now, we will see shortly if this comes to fruition. The rally has been moderating but that’s been it. Very quietly, we have seen the defensive sectors like REITs, staples and utilities really start to lag as […]
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Date: December 4, 2020
December Seasonally Strong with Soft Patch Coming up to Santa
The last month of the year has begun. Usually at this time of year I comment that I can’t believe how fast the year flew by. However, 2020 hasn’t conformed to any historical norms. It feels like the year that just won’t end. The year that time stood still. December is the second month of the strong seasonal period of November through April. December is also one of the strongest months of the year. Going one step further, December is […]
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Date: December 2, 2020
Seasonal Weakness Today – Big Sea Change Elsewhere
Last Wednesday’s and Friday’s very strong seasonal tendency came in a bit muted, however with such a powerful rally coming into those days, no one can be surprised. Today, there is a strong headwind as the Monday after Thanksgiving always is. It is also the last day of the month where some portfolio games are sometimes seen. Over the past week or so, there has been a subtle shift back into the Fab Five Plus mega cap technology stocks and […]
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Date: November 30, 2020
Strong Seasonal Trend – Market Frothy
I hope everyone had a happy, safe and meaningful Thanksgiving! Today is one of those abbreviated trading sessions where many market participants often skip. While I would rather be skiing if I am being honest, my recovery is preventing that so off to the office it is. The Friday after Thanksgiving has a very bullish seasonal edge, even stronger than the Wednesday before which did not work out. Next Monday has a strong headwind so super short-term traders might be […]
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Date: November 27, 2020
Seasonal Trends Cranking Up
There has been so much written about the strong seasonal trends this week, specifically Wednesday and Friday. They are historically strong days, followed by next Monday being seasonally weak. The details do not matter. However, let’s remember that stocks have been in rally mode since October 30 with barely a whiff of weakness. Don’t be surprised if some or much of the seasonal tailwind dissipates. And while on the topic of positive tailwinds, we know the period from November through […]
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Date: November 25, 2020
