It’s Confirmed. I Was Wrong
As you know, my thesis has been for an absolute minimum 4-8% pullback in Q1 to at least move the sentiment needle from greed and euphoric to neutral. Well, Mr. Market gave us the bare minimum 4% decline, but not only did it not repair anything, it has actually made the landscape even worse. Rather than weak handed investors selling, it seems like anyone not involved in the Gamestop Saga bought the decline. That was a bit of a surprise. […]
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Date: February 8, 2021
Am I Wrong?
Thankfully, the markets are calming down from the Gamestop Saga, but it is hard to believe that the whole thing is over. It may be over for the current stocks, but there should be others. And my experience says that the outcome will not be the same and the little guy will be hurt. I just do not believe that the hedge funds and big money will be fooled again. And neither will the platforms like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers. […]
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Date: February 4, 2021
Bottom Not In But Pullback Is Buyable
I have put enough content out on the Gamestop Saga, between the blog and video and I am sure the vast majority of people are tired of reading about it. So, I will leave that alone for now. Stocks did not close last week or the month of January well. And for that matter, they didn’t close the day of Friday well either. But today is a new week and month and there is a strong trend for the stock […]
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Date: February 1, 2021
Just The 4-8% Pullback
After a quick little bloodbath on Wednesday, stocks saw a feeble bounce on Thursday with another rollover to the downside looking to be the case on Friday. I would be shocked if Wednesday was the low to buy for a run to new highs. The most likely scenario has stocks making new lows for the week and that spills over into next week. This should be the 4-8% pullback in Q1 I have written about so often. I can only […]
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Date: January 29, 2021
BEWARE! – Stocks (Gamestop) Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent
The stock market looks to open bright red today, something we haven’t seen in a while. Are short-term traders prepared? No way. I am guessing that even a mild to modest single digit decline will have most of them under their desks, sucking their thumbs in the fetal position. Look, the market has seen epic greed and euphoria since early November. However, the foundation of the market has been very solid until the past week. The theme over the past […]
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Date: January 27, 2021
Sentiment Remains Ripe – Foundation Rock Solid
As I did my weekend review, it was apparent that all five major stock market indices were perfectly in sync, something that has been the case on and off since the bull market began. Usually, it has been the Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 2000, but today, the Dow Industrials are a little off. I do not believe this is a big deal in the grand scheme of things. As you know I have been writing about the epic level […]
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Date: January 25, 2021
A Crack in the Pavement
Sitting here on Inauguration Day watching the markets shoot to new highs, I found myself complaining that so many of our positions were not participating in the rally that saw the major indices higher by 1.50% to 2.50%. That is unusual behavior. Now, I am not talking about the major indices we own like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Of course, they did fine. I am referring to our sector holdings and individual stocks. When I looked closer at […]
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Date: January 21, 2021
***Q4 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very brief quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop reading here. The year where time stood still and just wouldn’t end has finally come to a close. It was certainly a year that will live in infamy. Most importantly, I am grateful that you and our other clients survived. 2020 was one of those generational years that made an indelible […]
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Date: January 20, 2021
How Stocks Fare on Inauguration Day & Beyond
Wednesday is Inauguration Day (ID), a time of supposed new beginnings and a fresh start for the country. The truth of the matter is that stocks have been behaving as if there has been a new administration since the day after Election Day which they typically do. That’s how the four-year Presidential Cycle works in the markets. The markets don’t wait until January 20th and then realize there is a new sheriff in town. Intuitively, you would think that with […]
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Date: January 19, 2021
Pullback is Here – Foundation Strong
The stock market looks to open mildly lower and the media is blaming incoming President Biden’s recently unveiled $1.9 trillion spending bill. Yet again, that is pure and utter nonsense. The market already knew his plan would be in the trillions and that it is already dead on arrival in its current form. It’s almost as if any down day needs an explanation as they are no longer allowed. Since October 30th when I pounded the table that this was […]
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Date: January 15, 2021
