Nope. Not a Bear Market
As I continue to write about, while much or most of the price damage should be over, day to day volatility is not. Worries have shifted from tariffs and a trade war to civil unrest in Hong Kong which is also associated with China. Remember, regardless of the situation, there is always, always, always “major” news surrounding a market’s attempt to bottom. That’s just how it is. It seems like every single time stocks pullback at least 5%, I get […]
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Date: August 12, 2019
Stocks Thrashing Around for a Bottom But Other Markets Hold Clues
Volatility happens in both directions. That has been the theme all week. Anyone who has bought strength or sold weakness has been left holding the bag. And I don’t think volatility is over, but much or most of the price damage should be. Worst case, as I have written, Dow 25,000 or so could be seen. The reward is a move to 28,000. With stocks thrashing around trying to find a low, I often look at other markets for signs […]
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Date: August 9, 2019
Hold on to Your Hats
As you know, volatility rarely builds slowly. It typically happens all at once. I went to bed last night and saw overnight trading indicating a lower open by 100 Dow points. When I woke up, that had shifted to up 100 Dow points. I showered, got dressed and ate breakfast. The Dow was then indicated to open lower by 300 points as global bond yields collapsed. Why do we care about this? Lower bond yields are mostly indicative of weakness […]
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Date: August 7, 2019
Here We Go Again
It’s been a tough three days for the bulls that is about to get worse as China retaliated for Trump’s tariffs with a series of their own. Their currency, the yuan, also fell below what analysts have deemed “critical” levels. It has long been argued that by weakening their currency, China has been able to partially offset the impact of the tariffs. I won’t get into another diatribe about how I detest and hate using tariffs as part of economic […]
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Date: August 5, 2019
Economic Reports Overshadowed by Trump & Powell
It’s been quite a week! Lost in the Fed and tariffs headlines has been three important economic reports that lead to a conclusion as clear as mud. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index cratered to under 45, signaling trouble in the manufacturing sector. However, this number does have the importance it once did as the economy is only about 12% manufacturing these days. We also saw Consumer Confidence soar in July to just shy of an all-time high. That’s a little […]
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Date: August 2, 2019
Powell’s Arrogance & Ignorance to Continue – Here Comes the Cut
What to Expect Today Let’s get the worst kept secret out of the way. The FOMC is going to cut interest rates today by 1/4%. I don’t know of anyone who doesn’t believe that short-term rates are going down today, regardless of whether they agree or not. The big question is going to be what Powell says after that. Is this an “insurance” cut as in one and done? Or, is it the beginning of a rate cut cycle like […]
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Date: July 31, 2019
Big Week Ahead
Boy, it only took a single day of weakness, Thursday, for bulls to get right back to work. Friday made quick work of the bears and the bulls look like they are not quite done yet. Of course, the Fed will have a lot to say about that when they conclude their two day meeting on Wednesday with an almost certainty for fireworks. More on that in another update. The government released Q2 GDP and it can be interpreted two […]
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Date: July 28, 2019
Lots of Sideways Action – Could Lead to Another Leg Higher
With tech earnings season in peak mode, we are seeing huge moves in the prominent companies like Amazon, Google and Facebook, but overall, the indices have been relatively calm. The Dow and S&P 500 have been range bound and the longer this sideways action continues, the more likely the ultimate resolution will be to the upside. Bears have been pointing to the poor action in the S&P 400 and Russell 2000. The problem is that they have been behaving poorly […]
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Date: July 26, 2019
Lots of Ammo for the Bears
Lots of focus on technology this week as some of the behemoths report earnings. One thing is certain; there will be movement. All of the major stock market indices ended last week on the defensive as the bears put the plow down with a very heavy selling wave last Friday afternoon. That resulted in hundreds of stocks closing lower from all-time or recent highs which a yet another sign of a tired market. Coupled with overly confident options traders and […]
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Date: July 23, 2019
Opening Gaps the Theme – Financials Leading Banks
As earnings remain the theme over the next few weeks, large gaps on the up and downside at the open can be seen as the more impactful companies report after the close of the previous day. After Wednesday’s close tech giant Netflix delivered a very poor earnings report that looked to weigh very heavily on Thursdays open. However, by morning, those losses were somewhat mitigated and a only a mildly lower open should be seen. After Thursday afternoon’s tech slide, […]
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Date: July 18, 2019
