The Absolute Arrogance, Ignorance & Incompetence of the Fed
Here we go. Cue the media’s hype. “The single most important Fed meeting, perhaps of All-TIME!” Oh brother. Model for the Day Let’s start with the model for the day. As with every Fed statement day, 90% of the time stocks stay in a plus or minus .50% range until 2pm before the fireworks take place. With pre-market action indicating a much higher open, the opportunity is there for a momentum trade to the upside from the open until 2pm […]
Read More
Date: December 19, 2018
Ugliness for the Bulls Rolls On. May Need More Panic
Most of the past few weeks when I sat down to start a new post I thought, “well, yesterday wasn’t very nice for the bulls”. Today, as I sit on the train to New York, I am thinking that Friday and Monday were downright ugly for the bulls. The bad Friday, bad Monday combination, regardless of whether this remains a bull market or not is something typically seen near lows which is where I think the market is. Similar to […]
Read More
Date: December 18, 2018
Is It a Bear Market???
In rare fashion, the bears are certainly in charge this quarter, but especially this month. Historically, it’s very difficult to see stocks under constant pressure during Q4, let alone December. The usual catalysts for decline are typically seasonally absent. While that doesn’t mean that stocks can’t decline this late in the year, a decline of the magnitude we are currently experiencing is very rare. 2002 saw a 6% decline in December and 1968 and 1957 had 4% declines, but that’s […]
Read More
Date: December 17, 2018
Bulls Just Can’t Get Going
Something is clearly wrong with the bulls this month. With two reversal days out of three ending this past Monday, stocks should have been a lot higher than they are right now. Every single rally is being met with selling and that is a giant change in character. I have pounded and pounded the table that the bull market remains intact. And while there is still enough evidence to suggest that, I have to be open to the idea that […]
Read More
Date: December 14, 2018
Looking Under the Hood of a Midday Waterfall Decline
This is going to be a little different kind of article that focuses on the minute to minute moves in the stock market. People often ask what happened or why something happened in the middle of the day which seemed rather large and out of the blue. Last week’s 800 point down Tuesday had two very obvious things occur so I am going to share. Below is a chart that I found very interesting. Each little red or green bar represents […]
Read More
Date: December 14, 2018
Unusual Volatility
December and Q4 continue my longstanding theme of increased volatility. It’s definitely unusual for stocks to be this volatile this late in the year and without doing my homework, 2008 and 2000 come to mind. Of course, this looks nothing like 2008, but 2000 does have vaguely similar comparisons. Stocks are certainly pricing in a much more negative outcome than we have seen in a while. As I have said before, I definitely did not see the magnitude of the […]
Read More
Date: December 13, 2018
Higher Rates Are to Blame. Lower Rates Are to Blame
Everywhere I turn, there seems to be another reason for this correction. Slowing in Europe, China falling off a cliff, tariffs, soaring long-term interest rates, yield curve inversion, deceleration in the U.S. economy. I have heard it all. The problem is that none of these reasons can easily be tied to the decline directly, nor should they be. And every once in a while, declines occur and the reasons are not apparent until well after the fact. Let’s look at […]
Read More
Date: December 12, 2018
Lots of Sectors Resist Decline & Many Seasonal Stats Point Higher
The correction in stocks technically continued through last week although I remain firm in my opinion that this is all part of the bottoming process that began in October. With each passing week, more and more bulls turn to bears and I feel like I am almost alone in my forecast that new, all-time highs will be seen in 2019. While higher prices will be accompanied by unusually high volatility, I do not believe that a rising tide is going […]
Read More
Date: December 11, 2018
Ugly & Ugly
On Monday, I wrote about the fireworks I saw coming at the open and not to get sucked into the media’s and pundits’ hysteria. Smart money would be selling not buying.Well, frankly, I wish I did some selling into that bull trap as Tuesday was downright ugly and this morning is looking even uglier to begin the day. I definitely did not see a decline of this magnitude coming. As I always say with outsized opens, where stocks close matters […]
Read More
Date: December 6, 2018
Fireworks at the Open
No one was surprised that positive news came out of Trump’s meeting with Jinping over the weekend. That’s been his m.o. all along. And stocks are set to react in a big way, at least at the open, with the Dow looking up 400-500 points. After last week’s huge surge this just continues the dominance by the bulls as I have been writing about. For the Dow, the next big hurdle to clear is closing above 26,300 which was the […]
Read More
Date: December 3, 2018
