Role Reversal
The NASDAQ 100 and by default, the technology sector has led the markets all year. That’s certainly no secret. Value stocks have lagged not only this year, but every year since the bull market began. In fact, they are about as cheap relative to growth as they have ever been. This week, there has been somewhat of a reversal of fortunes as the tech-laden NASDAQ 100 has come under strong selling pressure while value stocks have held their own. Does […]
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Date: September 6, 2018
The Misunderstood Bearishness of September. The Real Facts
I cannot believe that September is here. That was the fastest August ever! With the turn of the calendar, the stock market now enters what has historically been the worst month if you look back 100 years. Of course, none of us have been investing that long and as we all know, markets can and do morph. In other words, over time, markets are at least efficient enough to arbitrage away most known calendar effects. Sometimes, the trend starts early, […]
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Date: September 4, 2018
Growth/Value Back to Dotcom Bubble Peak
Under the large umbrella of the U.S. stock market, there are indices, sectors, market capitalizations and style boxes. For example, the five major stock indices are the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100. Sure, you can argue that the NASDAQ belongs instead of the 100. We also have large cap, mid and small cap along with growth stocks and value stocks. I often write about different kinds of leadership in good times and bad […]
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Date: August 31, 2018
Record Highs in Stocks, Record Economic Output, Record Corporate Profits
And the beat goes on. I know stocks must be close to a pause because one of my market buddies asked me if stocks will ever go down again. Of course, he was kidding, but he and I ask each other idiotic questions from time to time during very strong trends. Stocks remain strong. That’s inarguable. Index leadership is excellent. Same for sector leadership. Sure, the banks could step up a little more and they probably will when bond yields […]
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Date: August 29, 2018
Beware of the Rally. “EVERYONE” is in The Hamptons
Early indications are for more new highs in the stock market today as the S&P 500, S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 look to see blue skies when stocks open. This comes as no surprise since I have been writing about new highs coming all along, but especially after the Q1 correction which is now a distant memory. I still expect the Dow Industrials to join the part in all-time high territory before long. When I look at the […]
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Date: August 27, 2018
Lots of New Highs as the Grinding Continues
After some fresh all-time highs in the S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000, stocks have been resting although the path of least resistance is higher, more in grinding fashion than explosive. Index leadership is good. Sector leadership isn’t bad. Junk bonds have defied my forecast that they saw their bull market peak 8 months ago and powered ahead to score a fresh, all-time high. Score another positive for the bulls. The all-important NYSE A/D Line continues to make new, […]
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Date: August 24, 2018
Manafort, Cohen Guilty but Reality over Rhetoric
On Tuesday the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 hit fresh all-time highs although without strong conviction. The three indices are not far behind although the Dow may take a little longer. All is good on that front. Banks are perking up and as I mentioned the other day, the semis look to have bottomed. Discretionary hit an all time high as did the transports in somewhat of a quiet surprise. All is good on the sector front for the most […]
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Date: August 22, 2018
Dollar Still King, Gold Garbage and Stocks Moving
What a change with the Dow Jones Industrials leading stocks higher. It felt like yesterday that Turkey was going down and about to take the whole world with her. Turkey remains an issue as does the emerging markets complex or at least those countries which have borrowed too much money denominated in dollars. With the dollar’s recent resurgence those debts are more expensive to pay when your own local currency declines. Anyway, that’s a big picture problem that’s only going […]
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Date: August 20, 2018
Turkey Burgers, US Dollar & Gold
Turkey this, Erdogan that. I would bet that the vast majority of Americans have absolutely no idea where Turkey is on a map. But, that country is in almost every financial story this week. Seeing the name so much subliminally made me order a turkey burger for lunch today! While stocks are beginning the day much lower, I think the news about a Chinese economic slowdown may be more important. In any case, as we know, stocks can never just […]
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Date: August 15, 2018
All Eyes on Turkey. LOL
The bulls had their wings clipped on Friday, making it three straight down days for stocks although the bears haven’t made much progress just yet. The macro concern right now is the collapse in the Turkish Lira. Similar to Greece and Cyprus, Turkey by itself has the economic output of Connecticut and the world really doesn’t care what some crazy dictator does to his country, per se. However, any time there is a crisis in the emerging markets complex, two […]
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Date: August 13, 2018
