Beware of the Rally. “EVERYONE” is in The Hamptons
Early indications are for more new highs in the stock market today as the S&P 500, S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 look to see blue skies when stocks open. This comes as no surprise since I have been writing about new highs coming all along, but especially after the Q1 correction which is now a distant memory. I still expect the Dow Industrials to join the part in all-time high territory before long. When I look at the […]
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Date: August 27, 2018
Lots of New Highs as the Grinding Continues
After some fresh all-time highs in the S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000, stocks have been resting although the path of least resistance is higher, more in grinding fashion than explosive. Index leadership is good. Sector leadership isn’t bad. Junk bonds have defied my forecast that they saw their bull market peak 8 months ago and powered ahead to score a fresh, all-time high. Score another positive for the bulls. The all-important NYSE A/D Line continues to make new, […]
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Date: August 24, 2018
Manafort, Cohen Guilty but Reality over Rhetoric
On Tuesday the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 hit fresh all-time highs although without strong conviction. The three indices are not far behind although the Dow may take a little longer. All is good on that front. Banks are perking up and as I mentioned the other day, the semis look to have bottomed. Discretionary hit an all time high as did the transports in somewhat of a quiet surprise. All is good on the sector front for the most […]
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Date: August 22, 2018
Dollar Still King, Gold Garbage and Stocks Moving
What a change with the Dow Jones Industrials leading stocks higher. It felt like yesterday that Turkey was going down and about to take the whole world with her. Turkey remains an issue as does the emerging markets complex or at least those countries which have borrowed too much money denominated in dollars. With the dollar’s recent resurgence those debts are more expensive to pay when your own local currency declines. Anyway, that’s a big picture problem that’s only going […]
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Date: August 20, 2018
Turkey Burgers, US Dollar & Gold
Turkey this, Erdogan that. I would bet that the vast majority of Americans have absolutely no idea where Turkey is on a map. But, that country is in almost every financial story this week. Seeing the name so much subliminally made me order a turkey burger for lunch today! While stocks are beginning the day much lower, I think the news about a Chinese economic slowdown may be more important. In any case, as we know, stocks can never just […]
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Date: August 15, 2018
All Eyes on Turkey. LOL
The bulls had their wings clipped on Friday, making it three straight down days for stocks although the bears haven’t made much progress just yet. The macro concern right now is the collapse in the Turkish Lira. Similar to Greece and Cyprus, Turkey by itself has the economic output of Connecticut and the world really doesn’t care what some crazy dictator does to his country, per se. However, any time there is a crisis in the emerging markets complex, two […]
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Date: August 13, 2018
Sell Facebook. Bull Market Peak Likely In
After writing about beloved tech giant, Apple, for so long, I thought I would keep it going and turn to another overly owned and loved FAANG stock, Facebook. As you know Facebook has had its share of triumphs, trials and tribulations since its infamous 2012 IPO, but mostly troubles this year with the personal information collection scandal at Cambridge Analytica. For those who invested in Facebook at the opening price in 2012, you endured incredible pain as the stock plummeted […]
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Date: August 8, 2018
Bull Markets Do NOT End Like This
Quick update as I am trying to get a full Street$marts out today or tomorrow. The theme remains the almost same. I thought a modest pullback would materialize and take the major indices below last week’s low. However, as I mentioned on Friday, the bulls put in a strong performance, like the Red Sox did over my Yankees, and took control from the bears on Thursday. That strength continues today with the S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 leading with the […]
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Date: August 7, 2018
Bulls Cede Control But Lows Not In Yet
So much to discuss, too little space on the blog. I know. I know. I need to do a full Street$marts which I promise to bang out shortly. First, Fed statement day actually worked out okay as the market stayed in a tight range as forecast until 2pm and then rallied modestly into the close. Not a huge winner, but a win is a win and it kept the almost 80% accuracy rate going. Apple is now a trillion dollar […]
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Date: August 3, 2018
***SPECIAL Fed Update – It Doesn’t Get Much Better Than This***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends were muted but today is at least a little different. As with most statement days, the model for the day calls for stocks to return plus or minus 0.50% […]
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Date: August 1, 2018
