Carnage Over?
What a long week it has been. What a long month it has been. What a long year it has been. Can we start over? Markets continue to be super volatile and that’s expected at the end of massive selling waves which this turned out to be. Remember, a snowball is biggest the second before it hit the bottom. Through Thursday this wave has lasted 31 days which puts it in rarefied air. We usually see selling waves last 18-25 […]
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Date: May 13, 2022
Finding a Few Rays of Sunshine
The government released CPI today and it came in .2% hotter than expected. Pre-market trading saw an immediate plunge in the equity markets. Early morning trading shows moves in both directions so we will need to see how everything settles out at 4pm. It will be a huge win for the bulls to close mildly lower today and more of the same for the bears with another route. The stock market has been really ugly and I have certainly been […]
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Date: May 11, 2022
Epic Oversold in The Depths of Despair
Monday was an ugly day coming after ugly days on Thursday and Friday. This is what the end of nasty selling waves look like. Monday was the third day in the last few weeks where 90% of the volume was trading in stocks that went down. That is widespread and pervasive selling of the indiscriminate variety. For sure, an entity or two were being forced to liquidate. I heard rumors last week about a major asset allocation shift using ETFs. […]
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Date: May 10, 2022
Strong Selling Wave Continues – Plenty of Opportunities
Good Monday Morning. The weather may finally turn nice in New England, but the markets begin the new week in the same crummy mood as last week and the week before that. And the story remains the same. Higher interest rates. Less confidence in the Fed. Inflation. The correction has been sharp and swift and painful with few places to hide. What different about this one is that the bond market’s decline has much worse on a relative basis. Bonds […]
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Date: May 9, 2022
A Few Green Shoots But For How Long?
What a week it has been! And there is still one day left although I will go out on a limb and say that Friday will look nothing like Wednesday or Thursday. On Wednesday the Fed raised rates by 1/2%, something everyone knew was coming. In my special Fed piece, I said that we would see a juiced post-2pm rally because of the selloff leading up to the meeting. Juiced was an understatement. Stocks soared in the last two hours […]
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Date: May 6, 2022
***Buckle Up Boys & Girls – Special Fed Meeting Update***
The model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Given the correction there is extra juice behind the model for post 2pm. Stocks are supposed to rally and I will add the word “strongly”. Today is the Fed day everyone has been waiting for. The day the Fed finally takes real action to combat inflation and slow down an economy that shrunk by 1.4% in Q1. Yes. You read that right. Jay Powell & […]
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Date: May 4, 2022
Lots of Market Worsts
Horrible week Horrible month Horrible year Lots of Market Worsts A new video is posted.
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Date: May 2, 2022
Negative GDP Growth Already?
Coming in to 2022 one of my main economic themes was slowing growth without recession. That would be accompanied by decelerating earnings growth and finally a blink by the Fed late in the year. On Thursday we got a first glimpse at Q1 GDP which came in at -1.4%, well below estimates of +1%. Yes; I know that people will rationalize it away because it was “inventory”, but facts are facts. I did not see the economy shrinking this early […]
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Date: April 30, 2022
OUCH!
Coming into the week after a drubbing last Friday there were strong winds blowing to begin the week. History suggested more selling on Monday with a likely attempt by the bulls to step and turn things around on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the opposite happened and Tuesday pushed prices to bottom end of the danger zone. Most of the major stock market indices are getting very close to the lowest levels seen in February and March. Frankly, that is not good for […]
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Date: April 27, 2022
Another Shot Down & Rally
The stock market had a very rough end to the week, falling more than 5% from Thursday’s high to Friday’s close, ending with a 2.5% down day on Friday. That’s significant. Let’s unpack each number a little. Thursday to Friday collapses usually lead to one more big decline on Monday. There have only been a few instances to the contrary. However, down 2.5% Friday usually lead to a rally above Friday’s close with in the next week. The S&P 500 […]
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Date: April 25, 2022
1994 & 2018 Still Offer the Best Clues on What Lies Ahead – Dow 40,000
A new video is posted. 1994 & 2018 Still Offer the Best Clues on What Lies Ahead – Dow 40,000
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Date: April 24, 2022
Still Sloppy, Choppy & Frustrating
Stocks staged an impressive rally on Turnaround Tuesday, however we still did not see volume in stocks going up overwhelm that in stocks going down. The price action was strong and leadership was powerful. But remember, it was one single day. And for those operating on the thesis that this is a bear market, those kinds of rallies can and occur often. I am not one of them, but it should be said. Buying strength and selling weakness is tough […]
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Date: April 20, 2022
Bulls Approaching The Danger Zone
Because of the holiday-shortened week last week, I wasn’t planning on a Thursday update, but I quickly cobbled one together. In my haste, I did not wish everyone celebrating, a Happy Passover and Easter. I hope yours was meaningful if you observed. Going without gluten for 8 days doesn’t make Passover a favorite. However, as I do every year, I ate pizza and/or pasta at least once a day for 7 days leading up to the holiday so I would […]
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Date: April 18, 2022
Switching Financial Advisors: Finding A Pro in Connecticut
People hear the words “wealth management” and imagine somebody shuffling piles of gold coins around. Similarly, if they hear someone is “changing investment advisors,” they think it means swapping stock market coaches. The second one is right—because we do provide investing insights—but that’s only a small corner of the larger picture. My goal is to improve your overall financial life. Of course, this can happen through run-of-the-mill investing. However, it is more often due to interwoven fiscal strategies, like retirement […]
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Date: April 18, 2022
Strong Seasonals & HOTTTT Inflation
Today is the day before Good Friday which is a seasonally strong day for stocks with surprisingly low downside when the bulls do not show up. Additionally, Monday is tax day which is also a strong seasonal day for stocks. The only 1%+ down days (2) in the past 20 days occurred with the S&P 500 below its average price of the last 20, 50 and 200 days. Today, the S&P 500 lies in between the 50 and 20/200. A […]
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Date: April 14, 2022
Inflation Has Peaked
After a textbook thrust off of the March lows the stock market has not behaved well this month. Recall that the masses were beating their chest how strong April usually is for stocks. The last two days have not been pretty for the bulls, especially in the NASDAQ 100, and they do not have much leeway left for stocks to not turn ugly again. The bulls need to step up in the here and now which the odds still favor. […]
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Date: April 13, 2022
Markets on Defensive – Oil Bear Market Rages On
Stocks return from the weekend the same way they began the weekend, on the defensive. After closing above the highest levels seen in February and sucking in investors, the stock market promptly reversed and is now pulling back again. The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 are mild so far, but the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 are deeper and more concerning. The technology sector just trades very heavy as interest rates continue to soar on the long […]
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Date: April 11, 2022
Brainard Should Resign
Yesterday, I wrote about the little pullback in stocks. That was before Fed head Lael Brainard threw a big bucket of cold water on the markets. Brainard is usually in the dovish camp and was often mentioned as a replacement for Jay Powell if the liberals had their way with President Biden. Recall, she was widely considered as the front runner for Secretary of the Treasury if Hillary Clinton won in 2016. She’s certainly no hawk when it comes to […]
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Date: April 7, 2022
A Little Pullback for Stocks
It wasn’t the ending UCONN Nation was hoping for in Minneapolis, but the best team all year with the best player all year won the national championship. UCONN was a M.A.S.H. unit all season and that carried right into the final buzzer. With another array of high school All-Americans coming to Storrs in a few short months, I have no doubt the team will be in Dallas this time next year. FYI, I am scheduled to join Maria Bartiromo on […]
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Date: April 5, 2022
Retirement Planning: Will Social Security Really Go Broke?
The way people talk when discussing retirement planning, it sounds like a foregone conclusion. However, despite what you hear, Social Security probably isn’t going anywhere. Click here to view my recent video about the viability of Social Security. As a matter of fact, the Social Security Trust Fund is already at zero (even though some say it won’t reach that point for a few years): Our government has already borrowed trillions from it. Believe it or not, you can still […]
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Date: April 4, 2022
