Big Week Ahead
For several weeks, I have warned about market sentiment at “rally killing levels”. Not a single thing has changed for the better in this department. The bulls are bulls and the bears are kinda, sorta bulls, at least through year-end. That continues to make me worried, but not enough given the calendar to take serious action. I want to preface my next comment by saying I absolutely do not believe we are on the precipice of another financial crisis like […]
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Date: December 16, 2013
Like a Broken Record
It’s getting boring, but essentially, the same comments apply. Stocks remain overbought and extended, and as we know, they can get more overbought and extended if all other indicators remain strong. That’s not the case right now and it wasn’t mid December, I would be an outright bear looking for a full fledged correction of at least 10%. As I have mentioned over and over, it is just very, very unusual to see a meaningful peak this time of year […]
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Date: December 10, 2013
Expert Year-End Tax Tips
Health Care Reform – Despite last-minute postponements in the effective date of some provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), it’s important to determine now what impact this law will have on your business. By acting now, we can identify a long-term plan that anticipates the eventual rollout of the reporting and penalty provisions of the employer mandate. The Small Business Health Care Tax Credit can help offset the cost of coverage for many companies by providing a credit against […]
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Date: December 9, 2013
5 Straight Down Days
The Dow Jones is now down 5 straight days and it’s in a bull market. Without diving into the research, this has to be one of the mellowest 5 straight down days in history! I haven’t heard a single person express concern that this is the beginning of anything more significant on the downside. That’s worrisome in itself, especially if the calendar did not say December. As I have mentioned before here and in Street$marts, while market sentiment remains at […]
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Date: December 6, 2013
Even the Bears are Bulls… for Now
The stock market is tired, again. That seems like a phrase I have used often this year without much follow through. There have been many times in 2013 when the market had risen sharply and then looked just plain weary. Instead of correcting or even pulling back smartly, the stock market behaved like it does when it’s in a powerful bull trend; it’s consolidated sideways within a few percent of its high and then blasted off again. “Is this time […]
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Date: December 2, 2013
Happy Thanksgiving
At this time of Thanksgiving celebration our thoughts turn gratefully to you with appreciation. May the good things of life be yours in abundance, not only at Thanksgiving but throughout the coming year May peace & happiness always be with you, Paul Schatz Heritage Capital _____________________________________________________________ For each new morning with its Light For rest & shelter of the night For health & food, for love & friends, for Everything Thy goodness sends Ralph Waldo Emerson
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Date: November 27, 2013
LIVE from the Floor of the NYSE
I am going to be on CNBC’s Closing Bell on Tuesday, November 26, at 3:45 PM est live from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. The topic will likely be the Dow’s recent assault on 16K and where it goes from here til year-end. As you already know, risk has increased substantially since mid October, but that doesn’t usually pick the exact top. Last week, I did a really enjoyable and informative interview on Fox Business discussing the […]
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Date: November 26, 2013
Fed Should NOT Taper!
Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital, typically lets it all hang out when expressing his views on markets, economics and sometimes even politics. An active asset allocator and adviser with 25 years’ experience, Mr. Schatz is on board with the Federal Reserve‘s quantitative-easing policy and would even like to see it extended beyond early next year, when the Fed is expected to start tapering its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. InvestmentNews: Do you think it’s time for the Fed […]
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Date: November 25, 2013
Fox Business, Stocks, Bonds, Gold and Oil
I am going to be on Fox Business’ Markets Now at 1:05pm today (Wednesday) discussing the stock market’s recent assault on Dow 16,000, a target I gave several times here and in the media. Now that the market is there, what’s next? I can tell you that from my perspective, risk has increased substantially, but by no means should the bull market be over. Stocks are overdue for at least a pullback (2-8%), but probably more on the downside next […]
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Date: November 20, 2013
More on Twitter
I have pretty much beaten the proverbial dead horse with my comments on Twitter, but as I look back, they were nowhere near as much as when Facebook went public. Below is another TV interview where I look particularly good. I can say that because they interviewed me over the phone! http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2816611949001/twitter-hype-overblown/ Twitter, the stock, is in an interesting spot right here. It looks like it wants to rally in the short-term, but because the line in the sand is so […]
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Date: November 19, 2013
Twitter & How to Play Hot IPOs
Last week, Twitter began trading in one of most highly anticipated IPOs in years, very similar to Facebook. You can view my very negative initial comments here. http://investfortomorrowblog.com/archives/826. “Hot” IPOs like Twitter and Facebook are usually very emotional and as I have discussed over and over, emotion in investing can have a very detrimental impact on your portfolio! I went back and found similar IPOs to show you what transpired over the coming few months. The results should not be surprising. Facebook […]
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Date: November 11, 2013
Thank You
A very heartfelt THANK YOU to all of the brave men and women who have served our country and protected our freedom!
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Date: November 11, 2013
Big Day for the Stock Market… Twitter, ECB, GDP
The media and masses are all keenly focused on Twitter’s overblown IPO. Too bad you can’t trade it to the short side. Already, some knucklehead paid north of $50. Do people ever learn? While I do not think we will ever see the tech mania like the Dotcom bubble again in my lifetime, we are certainly seeing froth in the social media space and that’s not a good thing! The real news of the day that is now only a […]
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Date: November 7, 2013
Canaries Still Singing
With many all time highs seen in October, it is a good time to review the canaries in the coal mine for signs of trouble. Remember, canaries are only valuable at major market peaks and bottoms. For the vast majority of the time in between, they will be of little value. We review all of the major stock market indices and sectors along with other key indicators of overall market health. At major market turning points, we will often see […]
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Date: November 1, 2013
Fed Day
The Fed concludes their two day meeting today with an announcement at 2pm and no press conference with Ben Bernanke. Markets are widely expecting absolutely nothing! No taper, certainly no increase and absolutely not even the hint of a rate hike anytime in the next few years. There is a very bullish tendency for stocks to rally on statement day and we should expect nothing different unless today begins the long awaited pullback. I have written about stocks being tired […]
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Date: October 30, 2013
Rolling Over or Revving Up?
Last week, I wrote about how stocks were looking a bit tired and in need of a rest. Nothing has changed since that piece. The lagging blue chip indices like the Dow and S&P 500 reached higher while the leadership indices like the S&P 400 Mid Cap, Russell 2000 Small Cap and Nasdaq 100 have moved sideways. This is all healthy, routine and constructive behavior that should not lead to anything more than a trading pullback worst case scenario. Market […]
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Date: October 28, 2013
Stocks Growing Tired
With the major indices going vertical since October 9, I am starting to see some signs of tiring. “Tiring” is a lot different than forecasting a full fledged correction or even a deep pullback. It just means that the odds favor either some sideways action to help restart the engine or some sort of mild price decline to shake out the Johnny Come Latelys. During this rally, we saw the S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 hit all time […]
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Date: October 23, 2013
Idiocy in DC
I don’t even want to begin to count the hours wasted in DC on the shutdown and debt ceiling let alone what it did to innocent Americans, our economy and our focus as a nation. Yet our elected officials are celebrating like they won the World Series?!?! What an embarrassing mess. White House staffers were quoted as saying they were “winning”. Speaker Boehner said they “fought the good fight”. I am glad our elected officials in DC treated this debacle […]
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Date: October 17, 2013
Another Crossroad for Gold
I haven’t written about gold in a while, probably because it’s been so darn frustrating. And if you ask my thoughts on the metal, they will vary greatly depending on the time horizon. Long, long-term, I believe the secular bull market that began in 2001 is alive, but gold is curently in a cyclical bear market that began in mid 2011 and could last until we elect a new president in 2016 or it could end in short order. It’s […]
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Date: October 16, 2013
Boehner Listened… Kinda, Sorta
John Boehner didn’t call me (he should have) and I doubt he reads my comments (he should), but at least the republicans figured out that their tactics were not working. They may not have unilaterally raised the debt ceiling long-term, but if the reports are accurate, they are going to offer a short-term raise in exchange for negotiations with the democrats on a variety of fiscal issues. As you would imagine, the markets responded favorably although Europe led the way as […]
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Date: October 10, 2013
