The “All Important” Employment Report
Today is Jobs Friday and the pundits are usually out in force predicting the number of non-farm payroll jobs created. That’s one area I usually steer clear of as it is probably the most volatile, inconsistent and unpredictable economic number of the month. What’s even more futile is forecasting the market’s reaction, which is sometimes a head scratcher. Last month’s number was a complete and utter disaster, but the stock market barely shrugged and tested the highs the following week. […]
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Date: February 7, 2014
Bears Take a Breather
Here is the link to the segment I did on Fox Business the other day with Lori Rothman and Adam Shapiro. This pretty much spells out what I have written here regarding my thoughts on the market this quarter. Thanks to Adam and Lori for letting me articulate my forecast. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3151668123001/ingredients-for-ending-a-bull-market/#sp=show-clips Stock market action over the past two days gives a glimmer of hope to the bulls for a short-term rally. I do not believe the final bottom is in as […]
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Date: February 6, 2014
Ugliness & Carnage Continues… As Expected
The latest Street$marts has been posted. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20140203.pdf
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Date: February 5, 2014
Fox Business TODAY @ 1:05 PM
I am going to be on Fox Business’ Markets Now at 1:05 PM EST today, February 4, discussing the stock market’s plunge from the perspective of someone who forecasted it a month ago. Yesterday’s collapse was very broad based with 94% of the volume on the downside. That’s the second 90%+ downside volume day of the decline and while a little late, confirmed that the stock market is in a corrective phase. Sentiment has come way off the overly bullish […]
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Date: February 4, 2014
Battered, Bruised & Beaten Up
After that “thrilling” Super Bowl, the markets come back to work kind of like Peyton Manning, battered, bruised, beaten up and in need of some TLC. Unfortunately, any TLC seen in the stock market should only be temporary and lead to more selling and lower lows. I am starting to see some constructive things, but the market isn’t there yet. Downside targets are beginning to develop and the easiest one in the S&P 500 is the 1700 area, which represents […]
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Date: February 3, 2014
Super Bowl
For all of the 90’s whichever team I thought would win, usually lost. Of course, my own team the Dallas Cowboys won three times and I never wanted to jinx them by picking them! When the century turned and my team began to stink, my Super Bowl picking record improved dramatically. This year, I am very torn. My heart and family go to the class act of the NFL, Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. There are few stories as good […]
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Date: February 2, 2014
Canaries Quiet
Thanks to my friend and business colleague/partner Dave Moenning (stateofthemarkets.com) for the canary pic. It’s been a while since I last updated this column, but it’s not because I am lazy! There simply haven’t been enough changes in the data to warrant an update. The rally through year-end was very powerful and almost all areas we in gear to the upside. And even today, while there may be a few warnings, we don’t have bull market ending conditions in place. […]
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Date: February 1, 2014
Snap Back
Stocks are opening sharply higher after Wednesday’s drubbing. We have not seen the ultimate low for a good rally. That looks to come in February. This little rally should be more than a one day wonder, but if it somehow fizzles out and closes in the red today, look out below! I think you could see one of those trap door, elevator shaft declines that forces a mini panic. I don’t think that scenario plays out, but it’s something to […]
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Date: January 30, 2014
Bernanke’s Swan Song at Interesting Crossroad
On Monday, I discussed how a very short-term rally was close at hand. I continued that yesterday morning about the prospects for a Turnaround Tuesday rally. The bulls came back to work on Tuesday in a very underwhelming way. The open was without conviction. Volume was anemic, further solidifying my stance that the market isn’t close to a low of any significance. With Apple’s disaster, stocks had a chance for a big gap down and short-term washout. But that wasn’t […]
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Date: January 29, 2014
Turnaround Tuesday
The carnage continued yet again on Monday, spilling over from Friday’s sharp decline. If you turned on the TV, you would have thought stocks are down double digits and in free fall the way the pundits are talking about this little decline. But you know better. Since the first of the year when the market started losing the positive calendar tailwind, I have been discussing a scenario for a routine and healthy bull market pullback of 5-10%. That’s where we […]
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Date: January 28, 2014
Stock Market in Tailspin but Bull Market Lives In
The latest Street$marts has been posted. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20140124.pdf
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Date: January 27, 2014
Very Short-Term Bounce on the Way
Stocks closed last week on a very ugly note with an across the board rout after underwhelming earnings and continued problems in the emerging markets. This is exactly the type of decline I spoke about for the past few weeks. All of the necessary ingredients were there and price finally succumbed. Friday was so ugly that it can actually be construed as okay in the very, very short-term. Days like that either lead to higher openings on Monday to relieve […]
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Date: January 27, 2014
Top 5 Tips for Financial Fitness in 2014
Here is the link to my segment on Fox 61 in CT, Top 5 Tips for Financial Fitness in 2014 http://foxct.com/2014/01/23/morning-extra-tips-to-get-financially-fit-in-2014/
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Date: January 26, 2014
Stocks Take It on the Chin, But…
Since the start of the year, I have been very cautious on the stock market, primarily due to market sentiment being at rally killing levels along with finally losing the tailwind of the positive calendar effects. The risk/reward looked so unfavorable that we took across the board action in many of our portfolios raising cash to even 100% in some cases, levels not seen since 2012. On average the major indices have gone nowhere for the past month with the […]
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Date: January 24, 2014
Goldman Sachs and the “Curious” Biotech Downgrade
I like to take things at face value. It’s makes life so much easier that way! But every once in a while, and probably more so in this business, some things just make you go “hmmmmmmmmm…”. Two weeks ago, Goldman Sachs issued a very public call on the biotech sector. If it was almost anyone else, you would shrug your shoulders and move on. However, with Goldman, I sometimes take the “curious” stance, rightly or wrongly so. Goldman downgraded biotech […]
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Date: January 22, 2014
There is Always Something to Buy
Like a broken record, stock market sentiment remains at rally killing levels as it has for the past two months or so, but that certainly didn’t prevented us from taking full advantage of the Santa Claus rally. Now that the calendar turned and the most bullish period of the year has ended, the tailwind for stocks isn’t as strong. As the market has been for some time, it is stretched, very overbought and in need of good 5-10% pullback. The very […]
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Date: January 13, 2014
Employment Report Disappoints
The overly anticipated employment report showed a disappointing 74,000 jobs being created in December. I have already heard the pundits argue away ad nauseam this report as an outlier that will be revised higher in subsequent months, something I don’t rule out. However, they also reason that all is great and our economy is about to go into warp speed. I could not disagree more as I have since the economy bottomed in 2009. All was not ok in 2009 or 2010 […]
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Date: January 12, 2014
Employment Report Key to Very Short-Term
On Friday morning at 8:30am the monthly jobs report will be out. This has become the most watched and heavily anticipated economic report of the month. Over the past year or so it has been the bulls’ ATM machine as the vast majority of those days have been up and very easy on the bulls with few meaningful losses. The major stock market indices are in a very interesting position heading into Friday. Since Christmas they have essentially gone nowhere, […]
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Date: January 10, 2014
Bears Have the Ball
Having been bullish on balance since Q4 of 2012, the time has come to temporarily temper that enthusiasm. As I have written about since November, market sentiment has been at rally killing levels that is starting to encroach on bull market ending levels. Our investment models rolled over at the close of 2013 and the risk/reward is now skewed to the downside by at least a 2:1 margin. In plain English, I think the upside is now capped at 2-4% […]
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Date: January 6, 2014
A “To Do” List Before 2013 Ends
Don’t leave money on the table In uncertain economic times, many employees put off contributions to retirement accounts, reasoning that they will make up lost ground when times improve. Doing so, however, could result in leaving what is virtually “free” money on the table. If you have a 401(k) or comparable retirement account where your employer matches your contributions always contribute enough each year to receive your full employer match. Not doing so leaves money on the table. […]
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Date: December 27, 2013
