Short-Term Murkiness Continues
While I continue to be intermediate and long-term positive on the stock market, there remains a small cloud over the markets in the short-term. That usually means a pullback, which equals weakness to the tune of 3-7%. Market sentiment has become slightly less bullish, but not to the degree where I believe the next launch to all-time highs can begin. Recent price action shows the S&P 500, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 poking to all-time highs and then being rejected […]
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Date: April 28, 2015
Bears Having Their Day
Not even half a day of weakness and talk of the big C is out. The dreaded correction! It’s amazing that after a 73 month secular bull market, it’s still the most hated and disavowed bull ever. Yes, it’s now been 42 months since the last 10% correction, but markets don’t fall just because of age. Corrections occur to repair breaks and right now, there aren’t enough things broken to warrant a full fledged correction. The most glaring concern is […]
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Date: April 17, 2015
Only Sentiment Holding Back Bulls
The markets begin a new week with a huge stream of earnings on tap including Intel, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. The European Central Bank is scheduled to meet and there are a number of important economic releases with inflation being front and center. On Friday, it’s April options expiration. The major indices look neutral to positive as the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are a whisker away from all-time highs while the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Dow are […]
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Date: April 13, 2015
Dow Theory Warnings Continue
Several months ago, I wrote back to back articles about the Dow Theory trend change. You can view them below. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20141029.pdf http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20141103.pdf Simply put, this analysis holds that the Dow Jones Industrials and Transports should move in lock step to confirm each intermediate-term move in the stock market. When one index see a relative new high, so should the other. The opposite is true at lows. When one index diverges from the other, it is a possible sign of a […]
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Date: April 6, 2015
Q2 Begins Where Q1 Left Off
I hope you all enjoyed April Fool’s Day. I know I definitely did and the emails, calls and texts continue rolling in. Even the media called for an interview about my new gig! 🙂 The first quarter and the month of March rolled in like a bear and both rolled out like a bear, meaning that the bears had the upper hand at least in the short-term. During the middle of the quarter, the bulls were in firm control. The […]
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Date: April 2, 2015
Fox News Here I Come!
I am excited and thrilled to announce that I have signed a deal with Fox News to host my own TV show weekdays from 8 pm to 8:30 pm. As you already know, I have always enjoyed appearing on CNBC, Fox Business and Bloomberg, but the time is right to give this a go on my own, under my terms and my way. Apparently, there is a soon to be announced shake up at the network. The content will be […]
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Date: April 1, 2015
Goldilocks
The stock market continues its Goldilocks behavior of not too hot and not too cold. Two steps up and half or one step back. On Monday, markets were a little too warm early on and that should lead to a little cooling over the coming week or so. It should be just another small pullback in an ongoing uptrend in the context of major bull market. Until proven otherwise, any and all weakness is a buying opportunity. On the sector […]
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Date: March 24, 2015
Dow Jones Industrials Come Calling for Apple Today
After many years of speculation and a healthy 7 for 1 stock split to boot, the folks at Dow Jones finally added Apple into the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average effective the close on March 18. This had to be one of the worst kept secrets on Wall Street for years. As I mentioned in my 2015 Fearless Forecast, I thought this would happen in 2015. There were no excuses left not to add the tech giant and bellwether. In two […]
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Date: March 19, 2015
Fed Trend Says UP, But They are Nuts to Raise Rates
Today ends the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s two day meeting where no action is expected to take place. Computer algorithms will be set to trade on any non-mention of the word “patience” or actual mention of the same word. Isn’t technology great?!?! As you know, I have done a fair amount of research of Fed statement days and the trend for today is plus or minus -.50% in the S&P 500 until 2 pm and then a rally into […]
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Date: March 18, 2015
NASDAQ 5000. Bubble or is This Time Different?
Almost 15 years to the day after the NASDAQ last closed above 5000, the index finally breached that level again, albeit for only one close, so far. That means that if you invested in the NASDAQ in March 2000, it took you 15 years just to get back to break even, which doesn’t sound like such a great investment. Between then and now, the NASDAQ lost 78% to its October 2002 bottom and rallied 351% to its recent high. That’s […]
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Date: March 17, 2015
Cash at “Alarmingly” Low Levels
As I mentioned in my 2015 Fearless Forecast, I view the bull market as being in the fourth quarter if this was a football game. While there is still a lot of game to be played, energy levels aren’t what they were in the first quarter and a few players have some injuries. And, the game could go overtime. It takes months and quarters and sometimes years for a bull market to peter out. The warning signs don’t all come […]
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Date: March 12, 2015
Is it Crash Helmet Time???
For the past three weeks, my message has been one of a little short-term concern against the backdrop of much higher prices to follow. That remains unchanged. Market sentiment had become frothy, meaning that too many people had become too confident in the stock market. We saw that in both the individual investor and newsletter writer sentiment surveys. Options traders were betting overwhelmingly on higher prices over the short-term. Corporate insiders were selling much more than they were buying. Traders […]
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Date: March 11, 2015
Sector Canaries Singing but Quietly
With the major stock market indices all in good shape beyond the short-term pullback, let’s take a look at the key sectors and two other important canaries. The banks are first and they remain mired in a trading range for the past year. Before the last bear market, banks peaked a good nine months before the major indices did. In the Dotcom bear market, banks topped a full 18 months before the overall market did. As a bull, it would […]
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Date: March 10, 2015
Canaries in the Major Indices Singing Loudly
With stocks scoring new highs lately, it’s a good time to pay a visit to the canaries in the coal mine and see if we have any dead ones. For newer readers, Canaries in the Coal Mine is a semi-regular piece when stocks are near fresh highs or lows to signal a potential major trend change or warning sign. This analysis is not good at identifying routine and regular corrections or intermediate-term rallies. In this first piece, we are going […]
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Date: March 9, 2015
Blue Skies
Another day, more blue skies for the major stock market indices. The pain for the bears has to be strong and growing, but I have yet to see evidence that they are throwing in the towel en mass. And price action has done absolutely wrong to suggest anything more than a trading pullback. As I mentioned the other day, I think it pays to be a little more vigilant here, not that I think we are going to see a […]
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Date: February 23, 2015
Time to Be Careful
Before I dive in, let me be very clear, I remain bullish over most time frames. Nothing has changed. Five straight closes above 18,000 as I spelled out on CNBC last week and many times over the past six months may create a slingshot to 20,000 this year. The bull market is old and wrinkly but not dead. Same old lines from me. The headline about being “careful” is more about the short-term and because stocks just broke out to […]
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Date: February 18, 2015
Lines in the Sand
The bulls are back to pressing against the upper end of the short-term trading range and should attempt to close above those lines in the sand. On the Dow, the level is 17975 on a closing basis while it’s 2073 on the S&P 500. Both are just a one day rally away. The S&P 400 already saw all time highs last week while the Russell 2000, long left for dead by the market, has a line in the sand at […]
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Date: February 11, 2015
Bulls Trying to Step on Bears’ Throats
Earlier this week, I spelled out three possible scenarios for stocks with one very bullish, one mildly bullish and one bearish. I gave most weight to the mildly bullish one and least weight to the bearish one. Right now, stocks are marching more towards the very bullish scenario although the Dow breached the lows I had discussed in the mildly bullish scenario. Looking at the five major indices, the Dow needs to close above 17,850 to set up a run […]
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Date: February 5, 2015
Bears Pulling a Pete Carroll?
The bears began Monday’s trading with the ball, seemingly just needing to breach the lows to force a wave of technical selling. It shouldn’t have been that difficult. After multiple intra-day reversals by the bulls stocks ended sharply higher on decent internals. While that all looks very nice and neat on a chart, I would have still preferred to see a clear breach of all recent key lows by at least the majority of the major indices. All we saw […]
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Date: February 3, 2015
Bears Trying to Run It In
Congratulations to the New England Patriots! I didn’t root for you, but a win is a win, even in the face of the single worst offensive play called in the history of big game sports. Stocks begin the week with the bears in mild control even following Thursday’s reversal. Early this week should be very key to see which way the short-term winds blow. On the S&P 500 and its weaker cousin, the Dow, price has declined to the same […]
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Date: February 2, 2015
