More Airstrikes Announced… Markets Don’t Care
Last night, President Obama announced an expansion of the campaign against ISIS with targeted airstrikes in Syria. And as we have seen so many times over the past 10 years, the financial markets responded with a big yawn as if to say that, financially, nobody really cares. Are investors being complacent or realistic? My theory on geopolitical news is twofold. First, reaction depends on how solid a footing the markets are on. Cherry picking with the benefit of hindsight, in […]
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Date: September 11, 2014
Don’t Fall Asleep
Over the past few weeks I have written that stocks seem “tired” or “in need of a pullback or consolidation.” Remember, stock market digestion can occur two different ways; one by price declining 2-5% or price simply moves sideways for an extended period. Right now, it looks like we are getting the latter as the S&P 500 has essentially gone nowhere for more than two weeks. While all this boredom was occurring, we had a weak employment report, Russia/Ukraine cease […]
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Date: September 8, 2014
Beware the Ominous September… or not
Each year at this time, we hear the pundits roll out the ominous stats regarding the stock market’s performance for September. “It’s the worst month of the year.” “Be careful.” “Do some selling.” Those sound an awful lot like “Sell in May and Go Away.” The thing about compiling market stats is that over decades and decades the averages tend to really smooth out. Additionally, much depends on when you begin and end your study. Further, if you add enough […]
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Date: September 2, 2014
Happy Labor Day!
As we say goodbye to the unofficial end of summer, this Labor Day remember those who helped build our great country and celebrate the achievements of the American workforce. Wishing you a safe and enjoyable Labor Day filled with family, friends and cookouts! Heritage Capital LLC
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Date: August 31, 2014
Stocks Looking a Little Tired
The bull market remains alive and reasonably healthy. I am still long-term bullish. I am still fairly bullish over the intermediate-term. With that out of the way, stocks are looking a little weary at all time highs, which should not be totally unexpected. The market has powered higher all month and started to struggle a bit of late. At least for now, I think risk equals reward or perhaps even slightly outweighs reward. To refresh the rally, stocks can either […]
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Date: August 27, 2014
Treasuries Sneak Quietly into Favor
As you know, I have been a treasury bond bull almost all year, putting me squarely in the severe minority camp. 2014 began with the masses all forecasting much higher interest rates across the spectrum. Astute investors know that the masses are usually wrong, especially at major turning points. Jeff Benjamin from Investment News continues to listen to my usually contrarian side of investing and wrote a great article which you can click on below. Keep in mind that this […]
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Date: August 22, 2014
The Fed has It Wrong with the Taper
This is certainly not new news for my readers, but I continue to be in the very lonely camp that the Fed is misguided in tapering the $85 billion in monthly bond purchases and they should totally hold off raising interest rates until our economy gets to the other side of the next recession. As you know, we have been in the slow growth and no inflation camp for years, a theme we still have a high degree of confidence […]
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Date: August 19, 2014
Rumors of the US Dollar’s Demise Have Been Much Exaggerated
The second segment I did on Yahoo Finance last Thursday was not a new one for long time readers. As many of you know, I turned very positive on the US Dollar right about the time Bear Sterns needed a bailout in March 2008. That was long before any QE (money printing) began. Historically, the dollar spent most of its life oscillating between 80 and 120 on the US Dollar Index, an index containing a basket of currencies with the […]
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Date: August 18, 2014
The Most Hated Bull Market Continues
Yesterday, I spent a jam packed, fun filled day in New York City with client meetings and media interviews. Although I don’t enjoy the commute in and out of the city, I do enjoy the hustle and bustle as long as the weather is good since I like to walk as much as I can. I absolutely hate taking dirty, smelly cabs that take forever to get around, but I will hop on the subway when I have to go […]
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Date: August 15, 2014
M&A Hot Means Market Not?
Merger and acquisition activity has long been a trusty sign of a maturing equity market cycle By Jeff Benjamin Jul 16, 2014 @ 11:55 am (Updated 3:54 pm) EST Print E-mail Reprints 23Shares Twenty-First Century Fox Inc.’s offer Wednesday to pay $92 billion for Time Warner Inc. is all the proof anyone needs that the M&A market is hotter than ever. In mid-day trading, Time Warner shares were up almost 16% in an otherwise flat equity market. As economic […]
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Date: August 15, 2014
Reading the Short-Term Tea Leaves
To reiterate a comment I think I have made each and every week for at least three years, the bull market may be old and wrinkly, but it’s not dead. It continues to be the most disavowed and hated bull market of the modern investing era and that’s why it will live on. On an almost daily basis, another “market professional” comes out of the woodwork on why stocks should not be at these levels. Several good friends of mine […]
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Date: August 12, 2014
The Bounce The Bounce The Bounce
In the spirit of Herve Villechaize telling Ricardo Montelban on Fantasy Island, “Da Plane Da Plane Da Plane”, here is the bounce, the bounce, the bounce. After writing about the market bouncing and what was “supposed” to happen in several posts, stocks cooperated on Friday with what has been described as a “huge rally”. I am always keenly aware of what questions I am asked by the average investor as well as the comments. Over the weekend, folks I spoke […]
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Date: August 11, 2014
Getting Anywhere?
Early Monday I wrote about the market setting up for a bounce. And that was certainly the case on Monday. Tuesday, however, was a different story as stocks gave back all of Monday’s gains and then some. Wednesday’s solid action, once again, puts the stock market on bounce alert. I keep using the word “bounce” instead of rally because it looks like there needs to be some more work on the downside before the current pullback wraps up. With each […]
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Date: August 7, 2014
Monday is Bounce Day
After some normal volatility on Friday, the bulls held their own and are positioned to see some green as the trading week opens. There are two scenarios I am watching here. The first is the lows hit on Friday. If the major indices close below those levels sooner than later, we should see some trap door, elevator shaft, immediate selling. That’s the more bearish path. Scenario number two has the market bouncing for a few days and then rolling over […]
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Date: August 4, 2014
Watching the Bounce
Thursday’s shellacking in the stock market was a bit unusual given how close in time stocks were to all time highs. As I mentioned in Street$marts, my screen was a complete sea of red except for the instruments that go up when stocks go down. As I have over said over and over and over, based on history, the bull market remains alive. In the short-term, it looks like the best case for the bulls would be a few days […]
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Date: August 1, 2014
2nd Fed Trend a Success… Pullback is Here
Yesterday, I wrote about the Fed statement day trends. History suggested, a pre announcement market of +-0.50% which was spot on with the day closing green; it closed neutral. Today, the post Fed model called for lower prices which is spot on as well. This is all in the context of the pullback I forecast two days ago. Today’s action so far is nasty with my entire screen red except for the items that go up during a down market. […]
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Date: July 31, 2014
Fed Statement Day Trend
That certainly felt like a quick six weeks since the Fed’s last statement day and press conference! Today, Yellen & Co. conclude their two day meeting with a statement to be released at 2:00 pm est and no press conference. As has been the case since the first taper last December, the Fed will reduce their assets purchases by another $10 billion to $25 billion per month on their to wrapping up quantitative easing this fall. There has been a […]
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Date: July 30, 2014
Beginning to Feel Like a Pullback
As you know, I have been uber bullish on stocks here for a long while. It’s time to temporarily temper that enthusiasm for the market to repair a bit of short-term damage. I DO NOT BELIEVE THE BULL MARKET IS OVER! Sorry to yell, but I know that is going to be the first question I get. From my seat the bull market remains reasonably healthy, albeit old and wrinkly, and should live on into 2015 with much higher prices […]
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Date: July 29, 2014
Something for the Bears to Hang their Hats on
The Dow hit yet another all time high today and there hasn’t been a 10%+ correction in 35 months. When stocks opened sharply lower on July 10th, the bears came roaring out of hibernation calling for everything from a 10% correction to the end of the bull market. It was a sea of ugly red prices on my screen due to Portuguese bank worries, and weak China data. That decline didn’t even last a full day. Nor did the decline […]
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Date: July 16, 2014
Bears Out of Hibernation
Stocks open the day with the largest down opening in some time due to Portuguese bank problems, slowing Eurozone concerns and less than stellar data out of China. As hard to believe as it is, I have already seen a few articles calling this the beginning of a new bear market. Geez, how many time have we heard that over the past 64 months! What we are seeing now is a routine, healthy and normal 3-7% pullback. Short-term downside risk […]
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Date: July 10, 2014
