Oh My! 3 Down Days in a Row!!
Should we break out the crash helmets? The market just went down three straight days! Yes, it was and is stretched, but there isn’t enough internal damage to warrant more than a routine, healthy and normal 3-8% pullback. A much larger correction is coming; it’s just not right now. If and when the major market indices close below the lows from August 7, we should see a deeper bull market pullback. Here were my comments from the interview I did […]
Read More
Date: August 8, 2013
CNBC’s Closing Bell TODAY (Aug 5) at 4pm
I am going to be on CNBC’s Closing Bell TODAY (Aug 5) at 4pm discussing where the stock market is headed over the coming weeks and into September’s Fed meeting where the “taper” could begin. Over the past few weeks, I visited Fox Business and Yahoo Finance. Regarding the Fed, here were and are my thoughts: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/fed-meeting-tap-investors-await-bumpy-ride-112711784.html.
Read More
Date: August 5, 2013
Big Jobs Friday
The biggest economic report of the month is due out at 8:30am on Friday. It’s become even more closely watched if that’s possible because of the Fed’s focus on the unemployment rate for scaling back their massive bond purchases and then raising interest rates. It is widely forecasted that tomorrow’s number will be good to strong. What becomes very interesting for me is how the market would view better economic news. Is good news still good news or will we […]
Read More
Date: August 2, 2013
Correction Coming?
Every month or so, I write an update on the market’s canaries in the coal mine to get a sense where the bull market stands. Nothing has changed on that front in that we having an aging bull market, but one that should live on through the next correction and probably into 2014. As the market builds towards the next meaningful pullback, here are a few things to watch as I briefly discussed on Fox Business. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2565939221001/correction-coming/
Read More
Date: August 2, 2013
Announcement from Bernanke & Co. Just Around the Corner
Here are my thoughts on the Fed meeting today and into the fall as well as Bernanke’s impending successor. I think this was one of the clearest, most concise Fed discussions I have had. What do you think? http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/fed-meeting-tap-investors-await-bumpy-ride-112711784.html For today, anything other than what Bernanke said in front of Congress last week will be a big surprise. And no, I absolutely do not think Bernanke knows what Friday’s jobs report will be. As a tiny business who participates in the […]
Read More
Date: July 31, 2013
Hedge Fund Giant SAC Indicted
As I started my first segment with the folks at Yahoo Finance, SAC was indicted. Here is the on the spot discussion we had. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/sac-capital-indicted-criminal-securities-fraud-155459600.html
Read More
Date: July 30, 2013
Gold’s Bearish Pattern Trying to Change
When we last left off with the gold market (and the chart below), I offered that “Unless the metal quickly regains the $1350 level, we are most likely looking at further selling and even more record setting negative sentiment before a sustainable rally can begin.” Gold continued its collapse from the time I hit the send button at $1292 all the way down to $1179 a week later. From $1179, it rallied all the way back to $1303 this […]
Read More
Date: July 26, 2013
Fox Business Markets Now on July 25th at 1pm
I am going to be on Fox Business’ Markets Now tomorrow (Thursday July 25) at 1:00pm EDT discussing earnings, the upcoming Fed meeting and where stocks are headed this quarter. I am also going to spend some time with the folks at Yahoo Finance creating three segments. The first will be on the comparison between 1987 and the current market while the second will focus on the upcoming Fed meeting and when Bernanke & Co. will begin to pull the punch […]
Read More
Date: July 24, 2013
Comparisons to 1987 Mount
For the past six months when asked about my outlook for 2013 I replied that I thought it would be a front loaded year with all or close to all of the gains during the first half of the year. I have and continue to compare it to 1987 without a one day stock market crash. Others have predicted that 2013 will look more like 1995, the single greatest investing year of the modern era. Now that would make me (and you) […]
Read More
Date: July 22, 2013
Economy Still Plodding Along
Economically, as you know, my views haven’t changed since 2009. We are living the “typical” post financial crisis recovery with sub par growth and stubbornly high unemployment that sometimes teases on the upside and terrifies on the downside. Until we get to the other side of the next recession, I believe it will continue this way. I often share two of my favorite and off the beaten path indicators to look for clues as to the direction of the economy. […]
Read More
Date: July 19, 2013
Short-Term Crossroad
Interesting crossroad for the stock market. Price action says more rally coming shortly while sentiment and internals argue for a 4-8% pullback into August. I guess both could occur in theory. With the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 hitting fresh all time highs, it will be telling to see if any more cracks appear in the market’s foundation. We’ll take a look at our regular column of Canaries in the Coal Mine shortly. Yesterday, Ben Bernanke’s much anticipated and […]
Read More
Date: July 18, 2013
Oil Acting Up
Crude oil has very quietly rallied from $93 to $106 over the past few weeks. I am surprised we haven’t heard more from the media about it. Usually when it cracks $100, we hear how it is going to hurt the consumer and lead to recession. And all this while the dollar was strong as well. Thursday’s downside reversal was interesting, especially given how weak the dollar was and I will be closely watching to see if the bears can muster […]
Read More
Date: July 12, 2013
Big Ben to the Rescue
It wasn’t long ago that we discussed Bernanke throwing cold water on the rally, something I thought was overblown. But on Wednesday after the markets closed, he did a complete 180 and essentially gave the crack addict more crack. While I was not at all surprised with what he said, I thought the market overreacted somewhat. Precious metals stocks and emerging markets were the biggest beneficiaries of the Bernanke Bang which should be expected given how decimated they were. Friday […]
Read More
Date: July 12, 2013
Still in a Selling Mood
Although short, it was a good exchange on Squawk Box the other morning. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000180365&play=1 The stock market SHOULD come back from the day and a half break with the bulls pushing the Dow well above 15,000 again. We have the jobs report at 8:30am on Friday and I don’t see that as throwing too much cold water on the rally. But as I have discussed and written about for a while, I believe rallies over 15,000 are selling opportunities for now. […]
Read More
Date: July 4, 2013
Squawk Box on Wednesday July 3 at 6:30am
I am going to be on CNBC’s Squawk Box tomorrow (Wednesday July 3) at 6:30am discussing Friday’s “much anticipated” jobs report (aren’t they all???) and my outlook for stocks. If you missed last night’s Nightly Business Report, you can find it here. http://nbr.com/2013/07/02/dont-expect-earnings-blowout-or-market-rallies-pro-says/ The only thing I forgot to mention last night when I spoke about high quality corporate bonds and floating rate was that municipal bonds have been hammered as badly as any time since Meredith Whitney’s pathetically awful call towards the end […]
Read More
Date: July 2, 2013
Nightly Business Report TONIGHT
I am going to be on The Nightly Business Report tonight (Monday July 1st). In my neck of the woods, it’s at 6:30pm on public television, CPTV or channel 13. You can find it on your dial here, http://nbr.com/. In all likelihood we will be discussing what I see down the road as we begin the new quarter and second half of the year with earnings season beginning next week. Stocks are beginning the quarter with the bulls in charge. Will […]
Read More
Date: July 1, 2013
Markets Stabilized… For Now
Here is the segment I did with Fox Business. I think Adam Shapiro was trying to interview me as a bull, but he ended up calling me a bear. Truth is, I am an opportunist right here and willing to play both sides of the market for a while. I think big rallies can be sold and short-term panics can be bought. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2506211035001/markets-stabilizedfor-now/
Read More
Date: July 1, 2013
Market angst pushes stocks into ‘pullback’ territory
Thanks to Adam Shell for the quote in the USA Today article below. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/06/24/stock-pullback-intensifies/2453507/ Adam Shell, USA TODAY 9:34 p.m. EDT June 24, 2013 Pullbacks of 5% or more are considered normal. But with stocks in an early summer swoon and angst over the Federal Reserve’s plan to pull back on stimulus, investors wonder when the selling will end. Story Highlights S&P 500 suffers first 5% dip since late 2012 as losses mount Pros debate whether the selling is […]
Read More
Date: July 1, 2013
Just a Few Words Please
Here is the segment I did on Squawk on the Street the other day with Rich Bernstein. Rich does good work but geez, can I get a word in? http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000178049&play=1 Stocks rallied for the second day in a row and while it seems like investors have forgotten about the Fed’s tapering, I don’t believe the decline is over just yet. Another 100 points in the Dow and it will be time to lighten up again.
Read More
Date: June 27, 2013
