Can You Trust the Experts?
One story related by Peter L. Bernstein in “Against the Gods: the remarkable story of risk” was the experience of Kenneth Joseph Arrow, an American economist and joint winner of the 1972 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. Some officers had been assigned the task of forecasting weather a month ahead, but Arrow and his statisticians found that their long-range forecasts were no better than numbers pulled out of a hat. The forecasters agreed and asked their superiors to be relieved […]
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Date: June 6, 2012
Shareholder Suit Plagues Facebook IPO
http://nhregister.com/articles/2012/05/23/news/doc4fbdaeef4f252625135824.txt?viewmode=fullstory
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Date: June 5, 2012
Stocks Hit with the Ugly Stick
Stocks got hit with the ugly stick on Friday after continued worries in Europe led to overnight weakness and then the market got thumped by the horrid jobs report. Gold and treasury bonds were the only bright spots. Did gold just see “THE” low or “a” low? We will tackle this in an upcoming Street$marts. Stocks should be in the early stages of the bottoming process. It’s too soon to offer how long it lasts, days or weeks. But the market […]
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Date: June 4, 2012
The Facebook Fiasco… A Guide of How NOT to IPO
Here is the latest Street$marts with a detailed article on the bust that is Facebook. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120525.pdf
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Date: May 29, 2012
CNBC’s Closing Bell TODAY at 4:10pm
I am going to be on with Maria and Bill at 4:10pm today discussing ethics versus business on Wall Street in the face of Facebook’s epic bust. Now that should make for interesting conversation!
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Date: May 25, 2012
Facebook, Facebook, Facebook
Is the world so boring a place that unless we can beat a story stock to death, there is nothing else to report? Have we forgotten about the need to create jobs in the private sector? First it was Apple; then it was JP Morgan; and now it’s Facebook. Thankfully, the IPO is over, Mark Zuckerberg is now worth $19B and the markets have created thousands of new paper millionaires. It also means that in a few weeks, the buzz […]
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Date: May 22, 2012
STILL Targeting JP Morgan?
It’s really amazing how the media latches on to a story. Not long ago, Apple was all the rage. Positive story after positive story. As you know, I took the very unpopular other side of that equation publicly. And they trashed me all over the place. Funny how that chatter has really quieted down! Now we have JP Morgan in the very unenviable position of being at the other end of that spectrum. Negative story after negative story. The media just […]
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Date: May 21, 2012
JP Morgan, The Next Recession and The Wave of New Jobs
I did an interview with FOX Business on Friday where I offered my comments on the overblown mess at JP Morgan, which is the story of the day/week. I also opined that the next recession in the US will likely be seen in 2013 or 2014. I was somewhat surpised that the anchor thought that was so outrageous. Except for the 1990s, we typically see one or two recessions per decade with one being more severe than the other when […]
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Date: May 15, 2012
Is JP Morgan as Dumb as the Rest?
As you will read below, I don’t think this is the beginning of another leg in the financial crisis, nor do I think we will see more of this from JPM or other banks. When you trade and invest, you don’t always win and sometimes the losses can be large, especially if people make some pretty stupid decisions en masse. This is Jamie Dimon’s first real black eye since taking the helm at JPM years ago. My takeaways are that Jamie […]
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Date: May 14, 2012
FOX Business
I am going to be on FOX Business this Friday, May 11, at 1:20pm discussing some short-term paths for the stock market as well as some interesting long-term scenarios.
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Date: May 10, 2012
Once Again, It’s About Europe
Socialist candidate Francois Hollande won the election in France, throwing the Eurozone into a tizzy as Germany no longer has a fiscally conservative partner in France. This is going to get very interesting as we have Germany favoring austerity and a more hard line fiscal path, while France will look to curb the expense cuts, raise taxes and possibly increase spending. Markets cratered overnight, especially in Asia, but by the time the US opened, losses were more muted. And by […]
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Date: May 7, 2012
The Most Unloved Investment
Last Wednesday, I participated in an interesting discussion on CNBC’s Closing Bell regarding what I consider to be the most “unloved” investment. Most continue to scratch their heads as to why they haven’t cratered with the trillions of the dollars our Fed has created over the past few years. But there are bigger stories at play. For years, most have thought that inflation would really kick into high gear, but that certainly hasn’t happened. You may have seen it at […]
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Stocks at Inflection Point
Here is the article based on my interview with CNBC’s European Closing Bell from May 1. http://www.cnbc.com/id/47243367 The 2012 bull market still has further to run, according to Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital, an independent investment banking and advisory firm. Instead of a major selloff, Schatz believes that the equity markets will only peak later on in the year, or early in 2013. But he’s undecided about whether this will incorporate a “sell in May and go away” mantra. […]
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CNBC’s Closing Bell
I am going to be on CNBC’s Closing Bell with Maria & Bill at 3:10pm today discussing (defending) why I am the only treasury bond bull left on earth!
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Date: May 1, 2012
Local Bank News in Connecticut
Long time readers know how critical I was of how the whole New Alliance Bank merger with First Niagra went. While it was a good deal at the time for shareholders, their CEO and the bank said one thing over and over, yet their actions did the opposite. http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Former-NewAlliance-CEO-taking-over-at-BNC-3492708.php New Canaan-based BNC Financial Inc., a $500 million institution, has hired Peyton R. Patterson, former NewAlliance chief executive officer, to lead an expansion that one day could include a public offering. BNC […]
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Date: April 30, 2012
Is Apple in Trouble?
My negative Apple segment on Yahoo’s Breakout continues to be picked up by other websites… http://blog.experts-exchange.com/ee-tech-news/is-apple-in-trouble-aapl-apple-stock/ After a historic rise to nearly $650 per share, Apple stockhas dipped back below the $600 mark after a steady decline over the past week. As a result, the soothsayers have unsurprisingly emerged from the woodwork with their less-than-certain predictions about the company’s future. And somewhat ironically, I’m going to make one of my own. But first, let’s see what everyone else is saying. […]
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Date: April 25, 2012
The Bubble in Apple
It’s amazing that every time I take the unpopular view on the market, a sector, a general security or a stock, people come out of the woodwork to so easily dismiss the majority view as implausible or crazy, which is fine. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and I have always believed that respectful and constructive disagreement is healthy communication. The “problem” is that it usually and eventually leads to personal attacks or worse from anonymous cowards sitting behind […]
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Date: April 24, 2012
Europe’s Debt Problems are Here for Many More Years
In my bi-weekly interview with my friends from ET NOW in India, I continue to share my long-term view that Europe’s debt problems are not going away anytime soon. Although that may seem bad on the surface, markets have a way of discounting known and anticipated news into current prices. Remember 2008? Who could forget it?!?! The stock market turned down long before the economy and news. And right at THE bottom in March 2009, the news was about as […]
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Date: April 22, 2012
Gold to $2000 and Beyond
Here is the second video I did with the folks from Yahoo! at their beautiful new studio in the city. Anytime there are bold statements on gold, people come out of the woodwork to comment. And I would be surprised if they aren’t at least 100 comments by the time you read this. One of the great myths is that gold goes up when there is inflation. I think the 1990s is the perfect example of why that isn’t true. […]
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Date: April 19, 2012
The Fed, QE and Earnings Season
I had a great time with the folks at Yahoo! yesterday in New York in their brand spanking new studio. We tape three fairly controversial segments and Matt Nesto knew exactly how to bait me just right! Here is the first piece. Enjoy! http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/move-bernanke-qe3-115057583.html#more-13067 In case you missed it, The House of Mirrors has officially taken the place of The Earnings & Fundamental Palace on Wall Street. I say this at a time when the aspirations and way forward for […]
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Date: April 17, 2012
