3 Indicators That Can Tell You the Market’s Next Move
On Monday, I was in the city spending some time with my friends at Yahoo Finance. As always, I thank them for their hospitality and Jeff Macke for the engaging conversation. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/3-indicators-tell-market-next-move-115923205.html With the volume and velocity of information out there, trying to get a read on the stock market is like attempting to get a sip of water from a firehose. Thankfully Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital has three ways to check the health of the market and durability […]
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Date: July 5, 2012
Summer Rally, Pre-Election Sell-Off
http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/Heritage-Capital-stock-rally/2012/06/27/id/443591 The stock market will experience a summer rally, followed by a sell-off in the fall right before the election, Paul Schatz, chief investment officer of Heritage Capital LLC, told Yahoo. Schatz said the first half of the year had a few unique twists, but it has been fairly typical for election-year market indices. “It’s been an interesting first half,” he said. “We were vertical for a while and then we gave almost all of it back and now we’re […]
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Date: June 29, 2012
It’s All about Greece
Here is the clip from my segment on CNBC’s Closing Bell on June 15. As is usually the case, my view is definitely the contrarian view and Bill certainly challenged me! Take a look… http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000096597&play=1
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Date: June 27, 2012
What would Thomas Jefferson Say to the Architects?
The latest Street$marts is out, “What would Thomas Jefferson Say to the Architects?” http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120625.pdf Topics in this issue include a little known, but important economic indicator, the latest pullback in stocks and where gold is headed.
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Date: June 26, 2012
Fed Day is Here
Today is Fed day with split announcements. At 12:30pm, the official announcment and statement come out and then Ben Bernanke will hold his press conference at 2:15pm. The Fed is not going to move rates. They will likely downgrade their view of the economy. So far in 2012, every single Fed statement day has been a big day for the bulls. The market is anticipating some extension of stimulus or outright quantitative easing (creating money to buy securities, likely in […]
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Date: June 20, 2012
CNBC’s Closing Bell at 3:10pm June 15
I am going to be on CNBC’s Closing Bell with Maria and Bill at 3:10pm today discussing Sunday’s election in Greece and the potential for a major market reaction next week. Here are some quick, off the cuff thoughts: 1 – Markets seem very comfortable rallying into the event, which makes me a bit uncomfortable. I would much prefer to see weakness and worry ahead of a geopolitical event to wash out the weak handed holders and then reverse after […]
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Date: June 15, 2012
Who Do You Trust?
The latest Street$marts has just been posted! http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120605.pdf
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Date: June 13, 2012
The Week Ahead
With earnings season over and the monthly jobs report behind us, markets will likely focus on Europe and the outcome of ObamaCare before the Supreme Court which is due out this month on a Monday. Heading in to this week, the bulls have the upper hand after putting in at least a trading low last Monday. You can read the details in Street$marts, which is also posted http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120605.pdf. With the Dow at 12,550, we could see 12,750 – 13,000 this […]
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Date: June 11, 2012
Can You Trust the Experts?
One story related by Peter L. Bernstein in “Against the Gods: the remarkable story of risk” was the experience of Kenneth Joseph Arrow, an American economist and joint winner of the 1972 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. Some officers had been assigned the task of forecasting weather a month ahead, but Arrow and his statisticians found that their long-range forecasts were no better than numbers pulled out of a hat. The forecasters agreed and asked their superiors to be relieved […]
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Date: June 6, 2012
Shareholder Suit Plagues Facebook IPO
http://nhregister.com/articles/2012/05/23/news/doc4fbdaeef4f252625135824.txt?viewmode=fullstory
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Date: June 5, 2012
Stocks Hit with the Ugly Stick
Stocks got hit with the ugly stick on Friday after continued worries in Europe led to overnight weakness and then the market got thumped by the horrid jobs report. Gold and treasury bonds were the only bright spots. Did gold just see “THE” low or “a” low? We will tackle this in an upcoming Street$marts. Stocks should be in the early stages of the bottoming process. It’s too soon to offer how long it lasts, days or weeks. But the market […]
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Date: June 4, 2012
The Facebook Fiasco… A Guide of How NOT to IPO
Here is the latest Street$marts with a detailed article on the bust that is Facebook. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120525.pdf
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Date: May 29, 2012
CNBC’s Closing Bell TODAY at 4:10pm
I am going to be on with Maria and Bill at 4:10pm today discussing ethics versus business on Wall Street in the face of Facebook’s epic bust. Now that should make for interesting conversation!
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Date: May 25, 2012
Facebook, Facebook, Facebook
Is the world so boring a place that unless we can beat a story stock to death, there is nothing else to report? Have we forgotten about the need to create jobs in the private sector? First it was Apple; then it was JP Morgan; and now it’s Facebook. Thankfully, the IPO is over, Mark Zuckerberg is now worth $19B and the markets have created thousands of new paper millionaires. It also means that in a few weeks, the buzz […]
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Date: May 22, 2012
STILL Targeting JP Morgan?
It’s really amazing how the media latches on to a story. Not long ago, Apple was all the rage. Positive story after positive story. As you know, I took the very unpopular other side of that equation publicly. And they trashed me all over the place. Funny how that chatter has really quieted down! Now we have JP Morgan in the very unenviable position of being at the other end of that spectrum. Negative story after negative story. The media just […]
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Date: May 21, 2012
JP Morgan, The Next Recession and The Wave of New Jobs
I did an interview with FOX Business on Friday where I offered my comments on the overblown mess at JP Morgan, which is the story of the day/week. I also opined that the next recession in the US will likely be seen in 2013 or 2014. I was somewhat surpised that the anchor thought that was so outrageous. Except for the 1990s, we typically see one or two recessions per decade with one being more severe than the other when […]
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Date: May 15, 2012
Is JP Morgan as Dumb as the Rest?
As you will read below, I don’t think this is the beginning of another leg in the financial crisis, nor do I think we will see more of this from JPM or other banks. When you trade and invest, you don’t always win and sometimes the losses can be large, especially if people make some pretty stupid decisions en masse. This is Jamie Dimon’s first real black eye since taking the helm at JPM years ago. My takeaways are that Jamie […]
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Date: May 14, 2012
FOX Business
I am going to be on FOX Business this Friday, May 11, at 1:20pm discussing some short-term paths for the stock market as well as some interesting long-term scenarios.
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Date: May 10, 2012
Once Again, It’s About Europe
Socialist candidate Francois Hollande won the election in France, throwing the Eurozone into a tizzy as Germany no longer has a fiscally conservative partner in France. This is going to get very interesting as we have Germany favoring austerity and a more hard line fiscal path, while France will look to curb the expense cuts, raise taxes and possibly increase spending. Markets cratered overnight, especially in Asia, but by the time the US opened, losses were more muted. And by […]
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Date: May 7, 2012
The Most Unloved Investment
Last Wednesday, I participated in an interesting discussion on CNBC’s Closing Bell regarding what I consider to be the most “unloved” investment. Most continue to scratch their heads as to why they haven’t cratered with the trillions of the dollars our Fed has created over the past few years. But there are bigger stories at play. For years, most have thought that inflation would really kick into high gear, but that certainly hasn’t happened. You may have seen it at […]
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