Jobs Friday
Today, we have what is always labeled as the “all important” monthly jobs report. Frankly, given the Fed’s recent 170 degree turn, I don’t think it’s that vital unless the data either completely fall off a cliff or completely spike. Both are unlikely. After February’s unexpectedly weak report, I said that I fully expect a sharp revision higher when March’s report is released in early April as well as a decent report for March. I still feel that is the […]
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Date: April 5, 2019
VIX Says Full Steam Ahead for Bulls
While stocks “paused” on Thursday, it’s something you can hardly see on a chart. Since the Christmas low, all the market has given back has been one to two days here and there. Remember, in the strongest of trends, a two day pullback is really all you get until the first real trading range sets in to frustrate bull and bear alike. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 followed by the Volatility Index or VIX. As you know, […]
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Date: February 22, 2019
Just Keeps Powering Ahead
By now there should have been some pullback, any pullback. But no, the stock market continues to defy the odds. Sure, there have been a few small pauses, but nothing close to even a 2% decline. All the way up, naysayer after naysayer just keeps disavowing and hating the rally. I do love how many people continue to revise history and say that they called the bottom and the magnitude of this rally. In my next life, I am coming […]
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Date: February 20, 2019
No Cigar for the Bears
I had thought by now that stocks would have paused or taken a little 1-2% mild pullback. There was evidence last week. There was evidence over the past two days. So far, no cigar for the bears. This is very much typical behavior when the stock market emerges from a major bottom as we saw at Christmas. They just don’t give you a chance to comfortably buy after the train leaves the station. Any and all pauses and pullbacks are […]
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Date: February 15, 2019
After a Brief Pause or Pullback, All System Go Again
The stock market continues to do very little wrong. Since the Christmas bottom it’s been almost a mirror image of the relentless selling wave I mentioned so often for two months. In fact, as I wrote this, the stock market has just recovered 100% of the losses from that final, nasty sell off. Recall that the almost unprecedented wave was where stocks closed lower than where they opened for 10 straight days, likely not seen since the 1930s. Additionally, stocks […]
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Date: February 14, 2019
Range Bound for Now But Bulls Should Test Higher Early This Week
Stocks still have done nothing wrong since the rally began in December. Since the peak last week, they have been quietly digesting massive gains by mildly pulling back. For all major indices, the stock market should be range bound for a bit, bound by last week’s high and perhaps a few percent lower. If and when last week’s highs are exceeded, the widely watched average price of the last 200 days should provide a short-term ceiling. Coming in to the […]
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Date: February 11, 2019
Stocks A Bit Tired But Not Sick At All
The rally off of the historic Christmas low has been nothing short of amazing. It’s only now that folks are realizing its magnitude and power. Stocks still have not done anything wrong, but are certainly a little tired. I will have more on my upcoming issue, state of the market, either later today or tomorrow. Stock index leadership has healthily rotated during the rally and now we have the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 leading. That’s a good thing. Semis […]
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Date: February 5, 2019
MONSTER Jobs Report, BUT…
As I sat down to craft today’s piece just after the January jobs report was released, I found myself sidetracking from the short-term reaction to the report to a sort of state of the markets if you will. So, I went with it, writing for several hours on where stocks stand today. I will publish that early next week. Today, I was shocked when I heard that the economy created more than 300,000 new jobs in January, almost double what […]
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Date: February 1, 2019
Trump Tariff Tantrum Again
Stocks came back from some mild morning weakness on Friday but still look like they want to pause to refresh as the on again, off again continuation of the Trump Tariff Tantrum is front page now. In the very short-term, it’s pretty easy. Closing above last week’s highs gives the bulls energy to move higher. Closing below Friday’s low means stocks could see a mild 2-3% pullback before heading to all-time highs in Q3. The seasonal trends show some weakness […]
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Date: June 18, 2018
Bears May Have Reason to Celebrate But It Will Be Short-Lived
On Wednesday with most of our tried and true Fed Day trends muted, I mentioned the possibility for a negative set up. With the S&P 500 down on statement day, that set up a shorting opportunity for yesterday, today and into next week. Nothing big, just some potential mild weakness after a very nice run into the Fed meeting. If any weakness does materialize, it will be interesting to see if tech cedes leadership in favor of value. With the […]
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Date: June 15, 2018
