A Pullback? What’s That??
After a nearly vertical rise in stock prices since the Christmas bottom, the market seems to have put in a short-term peak on Monday. There is nothing to suggest that this will be anything more than a routine, normal and healthy pullback which could be a few days and a few percent or a longer period of sideways action. On Monday, all five major stock market indices hit recovery highs and new highs for 2019. On Monday, all four key […]
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Date: February 27, 2019
Running Out of Descriptions
The epic rally from the Christmas bottom continues unabated. leaving more than a few people scratching their heads. The rally just isn’t conforming to historical norms and all those people waiting on the sidelines have been left behind, completely and utterly embarrassed. Actually, most of those people just keep digging their heels in to hate and disavow the rally. I can’t even count how many of those fast money guys and gals look like bigger clowns than they already are. […]
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Date: February 25, 2019
Junk Bonds Stepping Up. Everything Seems PERFECT!
Snowmageddon ’18 is here! Let’s make it two straight days in the New Year and two straight all-time highs in the major stock market indices with Dow 25K up next which was my next target after 23,000. After five straight closes above 25K, 30K will likely be the next target. So far, stocks have done nothing wrong and I do not believe the rally is ending here. However, I do think that the market is going to form a short-term […]
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Date: January 4, 2018
Semis Strong, Shouldering the Burden. Other Sectors Stepping Up.
The stock market continues to quietly drift higher, at least on the surface. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have seen new highs this week while the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 look constructive but still well below their peaks. I do expect them to play catch up and see blue skies before any meaningful downside is seen. I wrote about the banks earlier this week as being a concern. Discretionary is a bit stronger but also not firing […]
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Date: September 15, 2017
Small Caps, Semis & Junk Leading. Banks Looking Sick
Stocks ended last week on firm footing as the bounce saw four nice days. With more North Korea tensions in the air, it will be interesting to see if the stock market finally cares or just uses this as an excuse to open mildly lower. Very quietly as I have mentioned before, the Russell 2000 has been leading the major indices. That does have bullish implications if it holds on. Additionally, the semis which have been the only key sector […]
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Date: September 5, 2017
Crosscurrents Abound. Enough for Bulls & Bears
Stocks continue the bounce they began two weeks ago and the same one I have been discussing. Tuesday was the day where the acceleration started. That could be slowing today. The NASDAQ 100 sits an all-time high but it’s lonely up there. The Dow and S&P 500 are within striking distance but the ever improving S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are not close. With the monthly jobs report out this morning, any strength will create a little short-term headwind for […]
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Date: September 1, 2017
Short-Term Iffy But Long-Term Remains Strong
Following up from Friday’s post, stocks remain overbought and certainly stretched to the upside although the same can certainly be said all month. They are much in need of a break or at least a quick pause to refresh. However, sometimes strong momentum overpowers everything as we have seen from time to time. I closed last week by saying that the bull market is absolutely not over in my opinion. That prevented the usual emails. Look no further than two […]
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Date: February 21, 2017
Dow Breaking Out & Q4 GDP Miss the Last
After hitting yet another one of my upside targets, 20,000, the Dow has yet to pause. Five straight closes above 20,000 will open up new upside targets before the bull market ends. As you can see below, the Dow has been consolidating sideways since early December. That’s often referred to as a flat top or box. When prices finally exceed the flat top, they oftentimes see a spurt in the same direction. Although momentum is on the side of the […]
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Date: January 27, 2017
Irrational Exuberance
This past weekend was the first official ski weekend for my youngest son and me. And boy was it cold in Vermont! But with mid-winter conditions, it was hard not to overdo it. I overdid it and now I am in a world of pain. Neck, back, quads, calves, fingers. Anyway, as you can imagine, I am usually a chatty one on the lift. Since we typically ride the quad or 6 pack, we are usually with strangers. When people […]
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Date: December 12, 2016
Bulls Continue to Trample Ahead
On Wednesday, I gave a higher level overview of how the stock market is behaving along with the leadership and some key indicators. Nothing has really changed. Almost everything is severely overbought, but they can still become even more overbought. Pullbacks through year-end should be shallow and no more than 2-3%, lasting just a few days. Another piece of good news for the longevity of the bull market came this week. The NYSE Advance/Decline Line scored an all-time high. That […]
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Date: December 9, 2016
