Bulls on Their Heels, Unlikely Enough Strength to Muster a Stand
The bulls mustered enough strength on Monday to avoid closing anywhere near last week’s lows. That was mildly impressive. However, the Trump Tariff Tantrum is front and center today as it was on Monday as overnight action looks like a nasty 300+ point decline to begin Tuesday. Unlike yesterday, I will be surprised if the bulls have enough power and ammunition left to thwart the bears. Taking somewhat of a stab in the dark, I would imagine a day where […]
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Date: June 19, 2018
Trump Tariff Tantrum Again
Stocks came back from some mild morning weakness on Friday but still look like they want to pause to refresh as the on again, off again continuation of the Trump Tariff Tantrum is front page now. In the very short-term, it’s pretty easy. Closing above last week’s highs gives the bulls energy to move higher. Closing below Friday’s low means stocks could see a mild 2-3% pullback before heading to all-time highs in Q3. The seasonal trends show some weakness […]
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Date: June 18, 2018
Bears May Have Reason to Celebrate But It Will Be Short-Lived
On Wednesday with most of our tried and true Fed Day trends muted, I mentioned the possibility for a negative set up. With the S&P 500 down on statement day, that set up a shorting opportunity for yesterday, today and into next week. Nothing big, just some potential mild weakness after a very nice run into the Fed meeting. If any weakness does materialize, it will be interesting to see if tech cedes leadership in favor of value. With the […]
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Date: June 15, 2018
Leadership A Changin’
Stocks appear to be shrugging off the reversal I wrote about last week, pretty much as expected. There is a lot of the news docket this week with the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday as well as the summit in Singapore with North Korea. While the latter will be all the focus, the former has a much better chance of moving the markets. You should expect another special Fed edition shortly. Over the past week or so, index leadership […]
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Date: June 11, 2018
ANOTHER Reversal
While stocks opened higher on Thursday, the bulls couldn’t hold on to those gains as the Trump Tariff & Trade Tantrum sprouted up again. With the G7 meeting this weekend, stocks are probably going to pause and let tensions cool off. As headlines and tweets crossed the wires, stocks gave up those early gains and for a few hours, selling was strong. Below is a chart that has become all too familiar. It’s the Russell 2000 Index of small cap […]
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Date: June 8, 2018
Bulls in Charge. Oil Corrects
With the elevator pattern broken, stocks have enjoyed a nice rally since Friday. The Dow Industrials are FINALLY getting off their rear end and seem poised to visit 25,100. All of the other major indices are well above that comparable level with the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 at new highs. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 are gearing up for new highs. Markets are much healthier with the Dow lagging than leading. Sector leadership is strong and improving. The […]
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Date: June 6, 2018
Follow Through???
Stocks ended last week with a solid up day, completing four days of down, up, down, up. The elevator ride may try to end today as stocks are poised to rise at the open. We will have to see if we get a run throughout the day or if they fade and end up in the red. With earnings season over and the biggest economic report of the month already in the books, only the inflation data are left before […]
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Date: June 4, 2018
Trump’s Foot in Tweet. Strong Jobs Report & Fed
If it’s the first Friday of the month, it’s the “all-important” jobs report. I opened Twitter to find the president tweeting about the still embargoed report and that was “looking forward to it”. Trump has many communication and information faux pas in his short tenure, but this one may be his biggest blunder. The President of the United States hinting at the content of market moving confidential information scheduled to be released is certainly precedent setting and idiotic. Anyway, as […]
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Date: June 1, 2018
Chicken Little is Alive and Well
In Friday morning’s piece, The “All-Important” Jobs Report, I discussed that it’s much more important to watch how the markets react to the news rather than what the actual news is. The jobs report was abysmal and the media reacted in kind by rolling out every bearish economist to let us know that the economy was as weak as anytime since 2009. Market strategists also responded as expected with the same wrong calls for a major correction and new bear […]
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Date: June 8, 2016
The “All-Important” Jobs Report
Another new month, another employment report. As usual, the media is hyping this to the Nth degree as a clue to what the Fed is going to do with interest rates later this month. I learned very early on that economic reports and earnings and geopolitical news don’t really matter. It’s how the markets REACT to the news that’s really important. In October 2000, companies started reporting very solid earnings, but stocks fell sharply day after day in what became […]
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Date: June 3, 2016
