Crushing the Doubters
I know I must sound like a broken record, but boy, have the bulls been tough to fight. Just when the bears think a deeper pullback has started, the bulls step up again and power stocks higher. After an unexpected turnaround on Monday from the early weakness after the lack of OPEC production cuts, stocks are pausing once again. Earnings season is in full swing and we have heard time and time again how this is the worst earnings since […]
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Date: April 20, 2016
All-Time Highs On the Way, But…
After a 24 hour trip to Houston, I am happily back home.Thanks to the Houston MTA for hosting me and inviting me to speak at their chapter meeting. I really enjoyed my time there. It was also good to see clients, colleagues and friends, all in 24 hours! When I look back over my posts since the bottom, there has been one common theme. The bulls are in control. Higher prices to follow. Expect brief and mild pullbacks. Continue to […]
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Date: April 14, 2016
Give the Bears a Break
Last Friday, I wrote about stocks looking a little sleepy, but that higher prices would eventually prevail. For the 6th time since the rally began on February 11th, the stock market is pulling back. It’s normal, healthy and expected. No need to panic. The bears should be out in force shortly with calls of another correction or resumption of the bear market. But let’s give them a break; they have had so little to celebrate for almost two months. The […]
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Date: April 5, 2016
Bye Bye March & Q1
Last day of the month. Last day of the quarter. What a ride it’s been although if you fell asleep on New Year’s Eve and woke up today, you might conclude it was a quiet three months with the Dow up a few hundred and points and the S&P up 1%. As we all know, it was anything but dull. March is on pace to return more than 6% after an historically weak start to the year. This kind of […]
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Date: March 31, 2016
And the 5th Pullback since The Bottom Ends
On March 21, I penned a piece calling for the 5th pullback since the rally began. I used words like “brief” and “mild” to describe what I thought was coming before the next rally began. As with the previous four pullbacks, all we saw was essentially two days of slight weakness before the bulls roared back. And roar back they did. Right before Janet Yellen released her speech on Tuesday, I did an interview with CNBC India regarding the Fed […]
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Date: March 30, 2016
The 5th Pullback Since The Bottom is Here
Repeating what I said on Friday, stocks now have a mild headwind post the Fed announcement which last through this week. Couple that with the fifth short-term overbought market since the rally began on February 11 and you have the ingredients for a small pullback or pause to refresh. The rally isn’t over. Three of the four key sectors (except banks) are dominating and can still be bought on weakness. While all of the major indices remain strong, I am […]
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Date: March 21, 2016
FOMC & Options Expiration the Themes for the Week
The Dow, S&P 500 and S&P 400 enter the new week at their highest levels of 2016. That surprised me when I did my weekend review. I would bet that most people think stocks are much lower than they actually are. Last week was another big victory for the bulls, much to my delight. Day in and day out since February 11, investors have disavowed and laughed at this rally. However, all we have seen in historic participation and strength […]
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Date: March 14, 2016
What do the Bears Say NOW?
Late last week, I wrote in Another 7% in the Cards that stocks were far from done going up. If you missed that post, it’s a good one to go back an peruse. That’s the same message I offered a day after the bottom in February and I have updated the S&P 500’s chart below. With Tuesday’s huge rally to open the month of March, the S&P 500 has moved meaningfully away from the bullish line in the sand. That […]
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Date: March 2, 2016
Spurt or Pullback???
Stocks continue to digest the gains made in early November without giving up against the negative news backdrop. That’s a well supported, resilient market. When the major indices close above their November highs, we should see a quick spurt to the upside. If they fail to do so this week, I would not be surprised at all to see a mild 1-3% pullback lasting a week or two to set up the Santa Claus rally into 2016. My theme remains […]
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Date: December 1, 2015
Bulls Come Back to Life
Stocks came into the week on their heels from the recent pullback and the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris. In my previous post, I offered that the odds favored some more weakness with a reversal this week. The market saw a quick bout of weakness to open the week, but quickly reversed into a very strong day for the bulls on Monday. While Tuesday saw some internal soft spots, the bears will have a tough time taking control unless stocks […]
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Date: November 18, 2015
