Can the Bears Make Any Move?
While the Dow declined almost 200 points on Monday the other indices were down much less with the NASDAQ 100 closing higher, a good sign for the bulls. Overall participation was poor and the defensive sectors were hit the hardest which was little bit of a head scratcher. As I mentioned yesterday, this week is the weakest week of the year on a seasonal basis. It is also another down Monday with an opportunity for an up Tuesday. I mention […]
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Date: September 25, 2018
Junk Hanging In While Pullback Begins
This post is going to be short as I am planning on writing my special Fed piece as well as a full Street$marts before I head to New York City tomorrow. Nothing new to report. I remain negative for the next few weeks or so as the window of opportunity for a mid to upper single digit pullback has opened. I have written about the split market and small warning from the NYSE A/D Line, however high yield bonds are […]
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Date: September 24, 2018
And FINALLY, the Dow Rings the Bell
Well folks, with the Dow Industrials finally scoring fresh all-time highs, we have every major stock market index plus all four key sectors seeing new highs since the bottom of the Q1 correction. My forecast is now complete. I can’t count how many times people told me that a new bear market started or this time I was going to fall flat on my face. Don’t get me wrong. I fall on my face plenty times. I just keep getting […]
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Date: September 21, 2018
Buy Yom Kippur But Participation is Waning
As the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur is here, so ends the seasonal trend of selling Rosh Hashanah and buying Yom Kippur. It worked out very well this year, if you did the exact opposite! Rosh Hashanah was the most recent little low and stocks quietly rallied right through to Yom Kippur. The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 have reasserted themselves while the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 have lagged, not exactly the healthiest backdrop. In sector land, banks […]
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Date: September 18, 2018
Hindenburg, Titanic, OH MY!
As I did my usual weekend research and overview I am even more convinced that there is valid reason to have some short-term concern. By short-term, I am looking at the next three to five weeks and nothing more than a single digit pullback, worst case. Lots of little things have ans continue to pop up to go along with the negative seasonal headwind this time of year. However, the real and nasty bearishness of September has been muted by […]
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Date: September 17, 2018
Gold a Bit Perplexing. Stocks Due for Pullback
Let’s start with gold. A few weeks ago, I wrote a longer article in Street$marts about a major low in gold forming. It’s USUALLY not that difficult to spot. However, this time, gold and the gold stocks have been diverging with the metal holding the bottom while the stocks made new lows. See the charts below. I can tell you that it’s been a bit perplexing, but not unprecedented. And although I have been long-term bullish on the dollar since […]
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Date: September 14, 2018
Becoming a Little Concerned
Sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur. The age old stock market adage for this time of year. I can tell you that no one was discussing that at synagogue over the past two days. As you can imagine, it was AAT, all about Trump, the good, the bad, the ugly and the otherwise. Normally, as you know, I would insert myself right into the conversation. However, given the holiday and toxic nature of politics right now, why bother. Everyone has […]
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Date: September 12, 2018
Role Reversal
The NASDAQ 100 and by default, the technology sector has led the markets all year. That’s certainly no secret. Value stocks have lagged not only this year, but every year since the bull market began. In fact, they are about as cheap relative to growth as they have ever been. This week, there has been somewhat of a reversal of fortunes as the tech-laden NASDAQ 100 has come under strong selling pressure while value stocks have held their own. Does […]
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Date: September 6, 2018
Record Highs in Stocks, Record Economic Output, Record Corporate Profits
And the beat goes on. I know stocks must be close to a pause because one of my market buddies asked me if stocks will ever go down again. Of course, he was kidding, but he and I ask each other idiotic questions from time to time during very strong trends. Stocks remain strong. That’s inarguable. Index leadership is excellent. Same for sector leadership. Sure, the banks could step up a little more and they probably will when bond yields […]
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Date: August 29, 2018
Beware of the Rally. “EVERYONE” is in The Hamptons
Early indications are for more new highs in the stock market today as the S&P 500, S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 look to see blue skies when stocks open. This comes as no surprise since I have been writing about new highs coming all along, but especially after the Q1 correction which is now a distant memory. I still expect the Dow Industrials to join the part in all-time high territory before long. When I look at the […]
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Date: August 27, 2018
