Don’t Go to The Hamptons – Big Move Coming
With the world seemingly focused on Friday’s employment report, I expected a lot more fireworks than we saw. After a gap lower at the opening and some modest follow through, stocks made it all the way back to even before tailing off to end the day. I have been talking about the rally not looking “complete” yet and that is starting to change. Our models remain defensive and only a break above Dow 27.000 on a daily and weekly close […]
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Date: July 8, 2019
Rally Not Complete Even Though New Highs Waning
Stocks continue the traditional holiday week drift higher. The S&P 500 has made fresh all-time highs and I expect the Dow and NASDAQ 100 to follow suit very shortly. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 may take some time. While I continue to be a little defensive on stocks over the short-term, some of the indicators within our models that caused that in the first place have strengthened. I imagine the next week or so will be key to see […]
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Date: July 3, 2019
Trump Lays Down As Expected
The G20 meeting in Japan is now behind us. Trump met with Xi and that’s no longer an uncertainty for the markets although you would have to be a fool to believe that something positive wasn’t going to come out of that meeting. That has been the president’s m.o. since he took office. He creates a spike in negativity and tough guy persona wit heels fully dug in to appease his base. Then he emerges as some victor or great […]
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Date: June 30, 2019
HUGE Crosscurrents on Friday
Interesting day on Friday. We have end of week, month, quarter and first half of 2019. The skeptic in me says some portfolio managers could play some games to mark up their positions. I know. I know. You are SHOCKED to hear this. I mean, money wouldn’t cause people to do unscrupulous things, right? Next, we have the last day for positioning ahead of the G20 meeting in Japan where Presidents Trump and Xi will meet tonight to discuss the […]
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Date: June 28, 2019
Mixed Messages – Playing a Little Defense
Earlier last week I wrote about a very binary outcome for stocks. You can reread it here. I thought a bigger move was coming, but the direction wasn’t totally clear. While stocks broke out to the upside across the board, the move was a bit more muted than I anticipated. With so many short-term indicators locked and loaded for higher prices at the time, I will say that the bulls should be a little disappointed. Of course, they could play […]
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Date: June 24, 2019
Big Move Coming. Binary Outcome.
The stock market begins the week in digestion mode as the Fed meeting looms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Stocks rallied in vertical fashion from June 3 to June 11 and have now paused. The next move should be a good one, whichever direction prices break. The longer the consolidation lasts, the more I would be on the lookout for a fake out, meaning that the first move out of the range sucks people in and then immediately reverses for the […]
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Date: June 17, 2019
Change in Character. Opportunity for the Bears
Earlier in the week, I offered that very short-term, nimble traders could sell the rally as stocks were beginning to look a little tired. I stick by that and still believe that’s a good strategy. Since then, several of our models have started to turn negative which changed my tone to be more defensive and less “risk on”. I think that will likely be the case into Q3 although that’s purely a guess. Of course, I could be wrong and […]
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Date: June 12, 2019
Sell the Rally? Mexico, Mega Mergers and Meat
The markets start the new week with an absolute cornucopia of news. We have mega mergers, Mexico, meat and employment. Obviously, the most important news comes as no surprise to anyone; the deal with Mexico to avoid the first in a series of tariffs on Mexican goods in response to the border and immigration. Stocks rallied sharply last week with an expected deal with Mexico as a significant contributor. The weaker than expected employment report on Friday was greeted with […]
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Date: June 10, 2019
Stocks Bottom on Schedule Catching Most By Surprise
For the last two weeks, I have written about the bottom I saw coming and how I would favor stocks over bonds. I didn’t write about a 10%+ correction nor a bear market beginning. I was very clear that I thought the stock market was experiencing a routine, normal and healthy bull market pullback that began on May 1 after the last Fed meeting. On May 13 as many of our short-term indicators signaled that the vast majority of the […]
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Date: June 7, 2019
Volatility to Continue But Bull Market Remains Alive
Last Thursday night, I wrote a quick piece about the latest tariff tantrum from the President. Early indications were that the stock market was looking at a very ugly opening on Friday. Bears were hoping for an all-out rout, but I wasn’t sensing that. In the end, most of the major indices closed slightly lower than they opened, meaning that not much transpired during market hours. As we start the new week, I would expect the bears to make some […]
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Date: June 3, 2019
