Stocks Remain in Pullback Mode
With the major indices down 4-8% I am once again getting questions whether the bull market has ended and a multi-year decline is unfolding. I don’t think so.The New York Stock Exchange Cumulative Advance/Decline line recently scored an all time high. When bull markets end, we typically see this indicator peak months, quarters or even years before the Dow and S&P 500. The same can be said of the high yield bond sector. Bear markets are usually associated with restrictive […]
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Date: April 14, 2014
U-G-L-Y Day on Thursday
The stock market had a very rough day on Thursday with all of the major indices breaking down below all short-term support levels for the chartists out there. There is no other way to characterize than UGLY. Keep in mind, however, that so far, all we have seen are 3-6% declines. It feels much worse because we saw two large down days over the past week, the likes of which we haven’t seen all year, including the January pullback. On […]
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Date: April 11, 2014
Routine & Healthy Consolidation in Play
Last Friday, we saw the S&P 500 tick at all time highs for a few seconds. That’s anything but unexpected and certainly not newsworthy. What was “different this time” was that it was the only major index to score new highs before they all reversed sharply to the downside. That made calling for an overall market pullback fairly easy. Over the past few days, the high flying, momentum driven tech stocks, like Google Netflix and Amazon have come under strong […]
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Date: March 26, 2014
The “All Important” Employment Report
Today is Jobs Friday and the pundits are usually out in force predicting the number of non-farm payroll jobs created. That’s one area I usually steer clear of as it is probably the most volatile, inconsistent and unpredictable economic number of the month. What’s even more futile is forecasting the market’s reaction, which is sometimes a head scratcher. Last month’s number was a complete and utter disaster, but the stock market barely shrugged and tested the highs the following week. […]
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Date: February 7, 2014
Bears Take a Breather
Here is the link to the segment I did on Fox Business the other day with Lori Rothman and Adam Shapiro. This pretty much spells out what I have written here regarding my thoughts on the market this quarter. Thanks to Adam and Lori for letting me articulate my forecast. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3151668123001/ingredients-for-ending-a-bull-market/#sp=show-clips Stock market action over the past two days gives a glimmer of hope to the bulls for a short-term rally. I do not believe the final bottom is in as […]
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Date: February 6, 2014
Fox Business TODAY @ 1:05 PM
I am going to be on Fox Business’ Markets Now at 1:05 PM EST today, February 4, discussing the stock market’s plunge from the perspective of someone who forecasted it a month ago. Yesterday’s collapse was very broad based with 94% of the volume on the downside. That’s the second 90%+ downside volume day of the decline and while a little late, confirmed that the stock market is in a corrective phase. Sentiment has come way off the overly bullish […]
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Date: February 4, 2014
Battered, Bruised & Beaten Up
After that “thrilling” Super Bowl, the markets come back to work kind of like Peyton Manning, battered, bruised, beaten up and in need of some TLC. Unfortunately, any TLC seen in the stock market should only be temporary and lead to more selling and lower lows. I am starting to see some constructive things, but the market isn’t there yet. Downside targets are beginning to develop and the easiest one in the S&P 500 is the 1700 area, which represents […]
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Date: February 3, 2014
Stocks Take It on the Chin, But…
Since the start of the year, I have been very cautious on the stock market, primarily due to market sentiment being at rally killing levels along with finally losing the tailwind of the positive calendar effects. The risk/reward looked so unfavorable that we took across the board action in many of our portfolios raising cash to even 100% in some cases, levels not seen since 2012. On average the major indices have gone nowhere for the past month with the […]
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Date: January 24, 2014
Bull Market to Live On
The stock market continued digesting gains seen from the June 24 to mid July rally. So far, the consolidation has been constructive with the Dow Jones Industrials being the weakest index of the majors. Over the very short-term, the major indices should see a bounce but not exceed the all time highs seen in July. It’s too early to tell whether this will end up being an intermediate-term decline lasting well into September or short lived. One clue will be […]
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Date: August 16, 2013
Correction Coming?
Every month or so, I write an update on the market’s canaries in the coal mine to get a sense where the bull market stands. Nothing has changed on that front in that we having an aging bull market, but one that should live on through the next correction and probably into 2014. As the market builds towards the next meaningful pullback, here are a few things to watch as I briefly discussed on Fox Business. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2565939221001/correction-coming/
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Date: August 2, 2013
