Watching the Bounce
Thursday’s shellacking in the stock market was a bit unusual given how close in time stocks were to all time highs. As I mentioned in Street$marts, my screen was a complete sea of red except for the instruments that go up when stocks go down. As I have over said over and over and over, based on history, the bull market remains alive. In the short-term, it looks like the best case for the bulls would be a few days […]
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Date: August 1, 2014
2nd Fed Trend a Success… Pullback is Here
Yesterday, I wrote about the Fed statement day trends. History suggested, a pre announcement market of +-0.50% which was spot on with the day closing green; it closed neutral. Today, the post Fed model called for lower prices which is spot on as well. This is all in the context of the pullback I forecast two days ago. Today’s action so far is nasty with my entire screen red except for the items that go up during a down market. […]
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Date: July 31, 2014
Beginning to Feel Like a Pullback
As you know, I have been uber bullish on stocks here for a long while. It’s time to temporarily temper that enthusiasm for the market to repair a bit of short-term damage. I DO NOT BELIEVE THE BULL MARKET IS OVER! Sorry to yell, but I know that is going to be the first question I get. From my seat the bull market remains reasonably healthy, albeit old and wrinkly, and should live on into 2015 with much higher prices […]
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Date: July 29, 2014
Bears Out of Hibernation
Stocks open the day with the largest down opening in some time due to Portuguese bank problems, slowing Eurozone concerns and less than stellar data out of China. As hard to believe as it is, I have already seen a few articles calling this the beginning of a new bear market. Geez, how many time have we heard that over the past 64 months! What we are seeing now is a routine, healthy and normal 3-7% pullback. Short-term downside risk […]
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Date: July 10, 2014
Dow 18,000 Next as Twitter, Investors, Advisors and Media Root for Bears
Small Caps Play Catch Up in BIG Way When we last left off, the major stock market indices were all playing nicely together except for the small cap Russell 2000 which had seen a full fledged 10% correction, but was beginning to bounce. The performance of that one index was a key ingredient to the bears’ negative stance on the market. At that time, here and on the blog, I dismissed the Russell’s warning and went so far as to […]
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Date: July 7, 2014
Bears Get Another Opportunity
On the Bullish Side It has been a relentless 10 day assault by the bulls with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 scoring new highs while the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are fighting to lead. Europe remains near new highs and emerging markets have had a very strong run, much to my delight! The New York Stock Exchange Advance/Decline line continues to see all time highs which has very positive intermediate-term implications for stocks as it is an […]
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Date: June 4, 2014
Rally, Decline… Outcomes Abound
The stock market begins the post holiday week in neutral territory after the mid week bottom last week that I discussed on Yahoo Finance. The day before Good Friday is usually up less than 0.50% and that ended up coming true. The Monday after Good Friday, which is also the first day after April option expiration has a bit of a headwind to it so a strong advance by the bulls would be an especially positive sign. In all likelihood, […]
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Date: April 21, 2014
Stocks Remain in Pullback Mode
With the major indices down 4-8% I am once again getting questions whether the bull market has ended and a multi-year decline is unfolding. I don’t think so.The New York Stock Exchange Cumulative Advance/Decline line recently scored an all time high. When bull markets end, we typically see this indicator peak months, quarters or even years before the Dow and S&P 500. The same can be said of the high yield bond sector. Bear markets are usually associated with restrictive […]
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Date: April 14, 2014
U-G-L-Y Day on Thursday
The stock market had a very rough day on Thursday with all of the major indices breaking down below all short-term support levels for the chartists out there. There is no other way to characterize than UGLY. Keep in mind, however, that so far, all we have seen are 3-6% declines. It feels much worse because we saw two large down days over the past week, the likes of which we haven’t seen all year, including the January pullback. On […]
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Date: April 11, 2014
The “All Important” Employment Report
Today is Jobs Friday and the pundits are usually out in force predicting the number of non-farm payroll jobs created. That’s one area I usually steer clear of as it is probably the most volatile, inconsistent and unpredictable economic number of the month. What’s even more futile is forecasting the market’s reaction, which is sometimes a head scratcher. Last month’s number was a complete and utter disaster, but the stock market barely shrugged and tested the highs the following week. […]
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Date: February 7, 2014
