“Buy the Election, Sell the Inauguration”
That’s been a popular refrain over the past week as stocks continue in stall mode, basically since December 13. In fact, the Dow and Russell 2000 are now down on the new year. Only the NASDAQ 100 which I thought would go from laggard to leader has had the power to forge ahead in 2017. However, that index is now looking a bit tired and in need of a little rest which won’t be so bad. For most of the […]
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Date: January 23, 2017
Bulls & Bears Even But Opex Tilts Down
Bulls and bears come into the new week on equal footing, both still fighting it out in the trading range. The bulls have done nothing wrong to indicate anything more than a 3-5% pullback and the bears will have a lot to prove at that point. Since early December, the small cap Russell 2000 has lagged and the bulls are getting to that point where it’s time to step up. Clearly, the unpopular NASDAQ 100 has been the leadership index. […]
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Date: January 17, 2017
Dow 20,000 on Hold for Now
On Friday the Dow Jones Industrials failed to touch the vaunted 20,000 level, missing by less than a single point. It’s been interesting to watch the media fall over themselves, cheering, pushing and encouraging the Dow to touch 20,000. Frankly, it’s kind of embarrassing. What’s worse has been the pundits who actually believe Dow 20,000 actually means anything. It’s just a number although I guess eclipsing milestone levels does add to the euphoria. For me, it’s been a target I […]
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Date: January 9, 2017
Santa Came a Callin’ But Who Cares…
The Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has officially ended with the bulls winning by almost 1/2%. That’s supposed to portend positive things for the year ahead. However, as with most Wall Street adages and assumptions, it just stand up to scrutiny when doing the research. First, let’s remember that during most long-term periods, stocks rise at least 2 out of every 3 years, so a permanent kind of tailwind to support the bulls. As I started to update the stats on […]
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Date: January 6, 2017
Santa Came a Callin’ & Dow 20K Up Next
While the point totals so far have been more impressive on Tuesday, the market action on Wednesday is more constructive and healthier. We had a quieter opening without emotion. The Russell 2000 and S& P 400 are leading, which runs counter to the trend I pointed out yesterday. The NYSE Advance/Decline Line is much stronger today. Commodities are bouncing back. I was hard pressed to find any sector that behaved well on Tuesday, but the vast majority are today. I […]
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Date: January 4, 2017
Bulls Rockin’ to Start 2017
It looks like the bulls are refreshed and ready to go into 2017 with the bears perhaps still nursing a hangover. Early indications show the Dow Industrials up roughly 150 points this morning which would put them within striking distance of 20,000 this week. I have seen a number of very short-term studies over the weekend which all point to higher prices today and possibly tomorrow based off the weak close to 2017 within the context of a higher December. […]
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Date: January 3, 2017
Well, Well, Well Mr. Bear
Wednesday was definitely an interesting day as opening strength was immediately sold and built upon throughout the day. That behavior is not only out of character for the post-election rally, it certainly is as well for the final few days with prices so extended. Market internals were pretty much as expected for a day like that and the Dow held up much better than the other major indices. Except for gold, sector weakness was across the board. Treasuries got a […]
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Date: December 28, 2016
Dancing Sugar Plums & Dow 20K
Two days into the Santa Claus Rally and the Dow is up a whopping 26 points. While that doesn’t seem like anything, it’s fairly typical of the final five trading days of the year which often see a mild drift higher before sellers sometimes come in on the final day. Tuesday saw the bulls come right back to work early in the day with thoughts of sugar plums and Dow 20,000 dancing in the heads. Stock market internals were certainly […]
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Date: December 27, 2016
Stocks Tired But No Reason to Sell Just Yet
Stocks are now in one of the most seasonally strong times of year within one of the most seasonally strong times of year. The big question is whether the market has used up most of the available fuel and needs a break first. Certainly, the last few days have seen a mild pullback. It looks like the bears have a tiny bit of work left to do on the downside. However, those looking for any significant price damage during the […]
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Date: December 19, 2016
Fed to Hike Rates But All Not Well
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Two meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, the upside edge is just outside […]
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Date: December 14, 2016
