Investor Behavior is now Very Dangerous
It seems like every single day stocks up higher, pullback and then rally into the close. It’s been one of those truly historic runs since December 3 where you would be hard-pressed to find any weakness. Those heavily invested are just sitting back, enjoying the gains and smiling. Those on the outside looking in are very frustrated and anxious to buy any discernible pullback at all. While we mark all of our strategies on a daily basis, I rarely give […]
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Date: January 17, 2020
That Was Quick
On Monday I wrote about a low risk opportunity for the bears with very well defined risk. Market sentiment had reached an historic extreme as investors had become beyond bullish and giddy. They are downright greedy. Market greed isn’t corrected quickly nor painlessly. It normally takes a sharp decline in stocks to create some fear and panic that things have changed. The problem with playing this is that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. With that […]
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Date: January 15, 2020
An Opportunity for the Bears
Since mid-November, I have often discussed sentiment in the stock market. Plainly put, investors have been very confident to the point of being greedy and giddy to an historic extreme. We last saw that behavior in January 2018 which led to a 13% stock market decline to resolve the condition. Of course, there were other factors that led to that decline, like some cracks in the market’s foundation, something I am not seeing today. When I have a little more […]
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Date: January 13, 2020
Early January Indicator Calls for More Upside While Oil & Gold Hit Peaks
With the much ballyhooed Santa Claus Rally out of the way which I really reduced to meaningless in the grand scheme of things, the media has turned its attention to the Early January Indicator (EJI). As Yale Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac fame discovered, as goes the first five days of January, so goes the rest of the year. Since 1990 when the EJI is positive, stocks end the year higher 78% of the time versus 74% for any random […]
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Date: January 9, 2020
Santa Called. Bulls Excited on Wall. Could There be a Fall?
Although it wasn’t much for the bulls to celebrate, Santa Claus did call to Broad & Wall. The last five days of 2019 plus the first two days of 2020 finished slightly in the green for the &P 500 by 0.34%. The media would have you believe that this 7 day trading period now holds untold fortunes for stock investors versus any old random year. That’s simply not the case, even when giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt […]
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Date: January 6, 2020
A Little Taste for the Bears – Santa Still in Play
Stocks roared out of the gate to begin 2020 and it certainly felt like the masses were buying hand over fist. However, let’s remember that this is a holiday-shortened week and I don’t think everyone is back to their normal schedules. With stocks closing at their highs for the day, it’s very unlikely that any peak of importance was seen. Several times last week I mentioned my last 5 and Santa Claus Rally research. The last 5 was reduced to […]
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Date: January 3, 2020
3224 the Key Number for Santa
Friday’s action in the stock market wasn’t the victory the bulls were claiming. After another higher opening, the bears made a tiny stand and managed to fend off higher prices for a few hours. That’s about all you can say besides there were more stocks declining than advancing. I know; I am grasping at straws into year-end. However, make no mistake about the historic sentiment readings we are currently seeing now. This is the polar opposite of what we saw […]
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Date: December 30, 2019
All Looks Terrific But Be Careful
I hope everyone had a great Christmas, Hanukah, Kwanzaa and Boxing Day! As I wrote about the other day, the Santa Claus Rally and last five days of the year are not the absolute layup the pundits keep predicting. In strong years, the last five days trade is not even a coin flip, however, Santa still comes calling about 70% of the time. That puts added bullish weight on the first two days of 2020 if the last five of […]
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Date: December 27, 2019
Stocks CREEP Higher – Waiting on Santa
Let’s start this article with the big picture. The bull market is alive and reasonably well and will live on into 2020. Next year will likely present some challenges, but we will cross that bridge when I start to work on my 2020 Fearless Forecast. One thing is for absolute sure in my opinion; there will be fireworks in 2020! For roughly a month, mostly on the blog, I had been discussing a stock market that was a little ahead […]
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Date: December 22, 2019
2019 A LOT Different from 2018 – Fedex Vomits on Itself
Stocks have really quieted down of late, but the bulls have been relentless. Each and every day seems like a slow drift higher. What has historically been a very reliable soft patch into mid-December is not arriving in 2019 or if I wanted to claim victory like those who can never be wrong, I would just say the two-day decline early in the month was it. That’s not exactly what I was looking for, but you always have to roll […]
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Date: December 18, 2019
