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Author:

Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital

Pause to Refresh. Transports Looking Juicy

It looks like Monday’s failure by the bulls put in a short-term peak and stocks will either trade sideways for a bit or pullback below Tuesday’s low. There shouldn’t be too much price deterioration. We have some overbought readings in the major indices so if stocks can resist much weakness, that could speak volumes about the next move which should be to new  highs. On the key sector front, banks and discretionary are quietly stepping up while semis appear to […]   Read More
Date: May 16, 2018

Nothing Sexy But Still Higher Prices

Since May 3rd, the path of least resistance has been up in the major stock market indices. That is supposed to continue although I will soon be on the lookout for a short-term pause or minor pullback. With the small cap Russell 2000 leading, there has been little to complain about lately, at least for the bulls. While none of the four key sectors are knocking it out of the park, they all look poised to head higher. Energy has […]   Read More
Date: May 13, 2018

Bull Markets Do NOT End This Way

*NOTE: I began this piece as my regular Friday blog post as a follow up to a tweet I sent last night. The more I wrote, the more I wanted to say. That turned into more of an Analysis 101 piece which I am distributing to everyone. It’s also one very important piece in my canaries in the coal mine which I hope to have out next week. One of my favorite long-term indicators scored an all-time high on Thursday, […]   Read More
Date: May 11, 2018

Stock Market & Economy Yawn as Trump Terminates Iran Deal

I have to laugh when I hear so many pundits surprised that Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. It was one of his many campaign promises. Most members of his revolving door administration were squarely against the deal’s continuation. What was so surprising? While my interview was 5 minutes, only a few comments made the segment on WTNH (ABC in CT) last night. I don’t think the Iran news will have any economic impact at all. It’s been fairly […]   Read More
Date: May 9, 2018

Friday was Constructive but More Work to be Done

Last Thursday, I wrote about green shoots in the stock market. Until former Fed chair Ben Bernanke used that phrase on 60 Minutes in March 2009, I had absolutely no idea what it meant. Later I learned that after a forest fire burns everything to the ground, the landscape becomes incredibly rich with nutrients and these little “green shoots” spring up as the first sign of new life. Eventually, these shoots become trees that grow very tall over time. Of […]   Read More
Date: May 7, 2018

Green Shoots for the Bulls After Fed Selloff

As expected by almost everyone, the Fed stood pat on Wednesday. I was shocked to hear some pundits predicted a rate hike. That’s one of the dumbest forecasts I have heard in an awfully long time as the Fed has become almost too transparent and too accommodating to the markets. A rate hike out of nowhere?!?! That made me laugh out loud. Stocks sold off after the announcement for the second straight Fed meeting, in direct contradiction to one of […]   Read More
Date: May 3, 2018

***SPECIAL Fed Update – Fed’s Arrogance & Pomposity Leading to Recession Watch***

Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends were muted. As with most statement days, the model for the day calls for stocks to return plus or minus 0.50% until 2:00 PM. There is a 90% chance […]   Read More
Date: May 2, 2018

Crosscurrents Abound in May but Fraught with Risk

The month of May begins today. It’s supposed to be spring although you wouldn’t know it in New England on Monday as folks had on hats, gloves and down jackets. The weather is finally looking up in CT as the forecast calls for 70s and 80s this week. I think the bulls are hoping their forecast heats up this week as it’s been cold for stocks of late. As you know from my blog posts since April 18 I have […]   Read More
Date: May 1, 2018

Huge Week Ahead. May 1st VERY Bullish

Stocks begin the new week with the bulls on the optimistic side. Yes, the tariff deadline looms, but we also have the Fed on Wednesday, employment report on Friday and earnings scattered throughout the week. Lots going. Lots of ammunition for the bulls, or so they say. I am not as encouraged for the same reasons I discussed last week and the week before. Lower before higher although I am sure I will feel squeezed if stocks break out to […]   Read More
Date: April 30, 2018

Don’t Let the Bulls Fool You; Bears are in Control

Turnaround Tuesday didn’t work out so well for the bulls,  but they did muster up some strength to rally on Wednesday and Thursday. Still, we don’t have a single day where 90% of the volume was in stocks going up. That’s sorely lacking to give the bulls some comfort. Lots of folks were crowing on Thursday about the NASDAQ 100’s regaining leadership with Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon blowing out earnings to the upside. However, let’s not forget that the market […]   Read More
Date: April 27, 2018