Fed to Hike Rates Today In Spite of Falling Inflation. Dow 23,000 Next
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Five meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement day which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, as with most statement days, […]
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Date: June 14, 2017
Another Tech Wreck
Between the ECB, UK and Comey, there was lots of news to digest. However, stocks really didn’t seem to care. The ECB did nothing and hinted that the European economy was improving. Comey testified and you couldn’t turn left or right without hearing “expert” commentary from the pundits. As expected, it was much ado about nothing. The big shocker came from the UK where PM Theresa May underestimated her constituency when she called for a general election. Hoping to strengthen […]
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Date: June 9, 2017
What Else is New? The Bears are Wrong!
Two whole days of consolidation. In modern terms, that sounds like a correction! Of course, I am kidding as pullbacks have been few and far between lately, not to mention shallow and brief. The Dow and the S&P 500 are digesting in textbook fashion with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 still not behaving the way I would like. The former is starting to show very early signs of leading, but we have been down this road before. The NASDAQ […]
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Date: June 7, 2017
Mixed Messages to Start the New Week
A new week, more of the same geopolitical news. Terrorist attacks in London. Trump tweeting. Economic mixed messages. Fed to raise rates. Stocks see more new highs. Friday’s market behavior was fine with the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 all adding to their recent new high run, however the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 seemed to run out of gas after lunch. Participation and leadership were solid. Friday’s employment report was also a mixed bag with the economy creating […]
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Date: June 5, 2017
Love or Hate It, Markets Don’t Care about Trump
On Thursday, the Dow and S&P 500 broke to fresh all-time highs to join the NASDAQ 100. The major index trading range since early March appears to be ending in favor of the bulls. I say “appears” because although breakouts are beginning to occur, every now and then they are fake (like news) and immediately reverse and head in the opposite direction. Only the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are lagging, but I would think they should both follow suit […]
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Date: June 2, 2017
Odd Day on Thursday Gives Warning
Thursday was an interesting day in the stock market. All of the major indices were up nicely in the morning. And while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 continued making new highs into the afternoon, the S&P 400, Russell 200 and Dow Industrials did not with the first two seeing real weakness during the afternoon. Additionally, even though the NYSE A/D Line and high yield bonds also scored new all-time highs as you can see below, the former went from […]
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Date: May 26, 2017
Bulls Are Resilient
On May 8th, I first started discussing what I saw as a skewed risk/reward ratio with 500 possible points of upside and 1000 points possible on the downside. Over the years when there was a decent chance for stocks to decline, I often referred to it as a window of opportunity that stays open for a period of time before closing. Three weeks after my comments, stocks have basically gone nowhere. We saw a brief dip when the “hysteria” over […]
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Date: May 25, 2017
Missing the Excitement
While nothing has really changed regarding the risk and reward for stocks, the bulls have moved the major indices a bit further than I thought they would after last week’s one day drubbing. Frankly, I thought we would see a few days up and then rollover for another decline towards the lower end of my risk range, Dow 20,000. Instead, the Dow is in the upper middle, giving the edge to neither group. The bears can point to the Russell […]
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Date: May 23, 2017
Bears Whipped into a Frenzy. Half Way There
I find it mildly amusing that after a 3000 point rally in the Dow, bears and pundits have been whipped into a frenzy because the Dow went down 370 points in one day. Talk about overly dramatic and idiotic. The bull market ain’t over folks, the same line I have said every day, week, month, quarter and year since 2009. Disavow and hate as they may, the bears have been, are and will be wrong. Don’t get me wrong. One […]
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Date: May 18, 2017
Impeachment? Another Watergate? What Will the Bears Say Next?
With yet another story “breaking” about President Trump, the markets seem to finally care, even if it’s only a short-term pullback which I believe it is. Day after day, week after week and month after month, there has been an ongoing deluge of negative stories in the press about Trump, whether deserved or not. The markets just kept yawning and moving higher. Until today. I would expect a barrage of impeachment calls and calls for independent investigations, etc. Markets will […]
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Date: May 17, 2017
