Powell on the Warpath
What a crazy week! It’s good to be in CT and not flying again until December although I really do love seeing so many folks. Three trips in October was plenty. Atlanta, Dallas and Florida. With skiing in Vermont scheduled to open in one week, it’s time to start packing up although it certainly does not seem like Mother Nature will be cooperating anytime soon. She is giving all her winter love to the Wasatch and the Utah ski areas. […]
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Date: November 4, 2022
***Q3 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. In baseball, people sometimes refer to a homerun as a roundtripper, having started at home and ending at home. This season Aaron Judge of the 27-time world champion New York Yankees hit 62 roundtrippers, the most ever in the American League and really […]
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Date: November 2, 2022
The Most Bullish 6 Months of the Four-Year Cycle
Happy Halloween! This is usually one of my favorite holidays and we planned to be in costume for a party in NYC over but I was still under the weather. And my new cowboy from the Village People costume was all ready! Today is the final day of the month and it has been a seasonally weak day. If history holds serve, Monday is down and then the next four days are up. The stock market is also starting the […]
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Date: October 31, 2022
Market Builds On The Bottom & Still No Recession
I came back Dallas very late Tuesday night and was definitely under the weather. I could feel it building and building for days.Thankfully, it’s not Covid and my doctor said I should be ready to go for Halloween. Traveling isn’t fun when you’re sick. Flying downright stinks. Flight delays from DFW to NYC were just icing on the cake. However, I did have a great trip to NAAIM’s annual Outlook conference which I chaired. I learned a lot, multiples more […]
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Date: October 28, 2022
Sole Survivor: How John’s Planning Supported Jill’s Retirement
Divorce is never easy, but it can be made easier—if you plan for it ahead of time. Believe it or not, you may still retire with confidence in Woodbridge. For example, let’s take a look at how a family working with their financial advisor got through a divorce without undue stress or hardship. We’ll also examine their situation before the split in order to see how they got through it afterward. This article discusses the following: How proactive planning can […]
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Date: October 28, 2022
Confounding The Masses
The bulls came out in force on Friday aided by what was considered to be dovish comments by some Fed members regarding future interest rates hikes. At least that’s what the media attributed the rally to. The reality is that the markets were already set up to rally, but just needed a spark to ignite the gas. Volume came in heavy, but let’s remember that it was the expiration of options where volume typically surges. As I wrote last week, […]
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Date: October 24, 2022
More Signs Of a Bottom, Yankees & Saying Goodbye
The stock market has been down 5 straight Fridays and 8 out of the last 9. That in itself tells you all you need to know about market confidence, or lack thereof. That’s also what happens during a decline that leads into the bottoming process and finally a or the bottom. Most of you know I never shy away from the camera. In fact, I don’t think I have ever met a media story I didn’t like. And it’s not […]
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Date: October 21, 2022
How Inflation Affects Your Taxes in Retirement
Inflation is an inevitable part of life. It means that prices will increase over time, and (believe it or not), in some cases, that is good news. For example, inflation can help the economy grow more quickly and provides more opportunities for workers to raise their salaries over time. Sometimes it can help countries and individuals with high amounts of debt pay their creditors off more easily, as well. However, when it comes to retirement savings and taxes, even for […]
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Date: October 18, 2022
FedEx Offering Many Market and Economic Clues
After one of the wilder stock market days on Thursday, stocks could not follow through on Friday after an up opening. While I wouldn’t say it is the end of the world, stocks absolutely, positively must hold above Thursday’s low. Otherwise, the bears take control yet again. This Friday is the expiration for October options. Seasonally, it is a strong period through Thursday’s close, so it will be telling if stocks stink it up. What’s interesting as the new week […]
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Date: October 17, 2022
Bells May Not Be Ringing But They Are Being Polished
Geez, it only took one day before I got my wish. As you know I have been skeptical that the September 30th bottom would hold having closed on the screws of the low of the day, week, month and quarter. But that didn’t mean the market had to collapse beneath it. And I was concerned that price hadn’t reacted with a surge in volatility as it approached and/or breached the recent lows. Well folks, that all changed on Thursday. I […]
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Date: October 14, 2022
Barrage of Bad News – Looking for Volatility to Spike
I can always find things that concern me in the markets just as easily as things that are sanguine. Lately, it’s bothered me that the bottom on September 30th came on the screws of the low for the day, week, month and quarter. I couldn’t find a single comparable low and that’s why I thought those price levels had to be breached before the stock market could bottom. So far, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have cooperated and cleaned […]
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Date: October 12, 2022
Strong Employment Not Good For Stocks – Good News = Bad News
Today is Columbus Day, at least that’s what it says in my Outlook calendar. My kids tell me I can’t use that name anymore. Whatever today is called, the seasonal trend is mildly positive. Stocks ended last week on a sour note although they did fill the price gap left by last Tuesday’s big up opening. The employment data was softer than the prior month but it still came in stronger than expected with the unemployment rate back down to […]
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Date: October 10, 2022
Buying Stampede, Bull Market or Bull Trap, Aaron Judge & Fox Business
I am excited to join the most dapper man on TV, Charles Payne, on Fox Business today 2:45pm discussing the stock market’s bottom, surge potential and what investors could be buying. Thank you to all who attended our quarterly webinar last night where we reviewed the events of Q3, discussed the performance of our 18 strategies and took a sneak peak at how Q4 looks. The recording should be available this afternoon. The stock market continues to be volatile and […]
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Date: October 7, 2022
New Bull Market or Just Another Bounce?
Good thing not much has happened since I last published on Monday. And yes, I am kidding. I was off for Yom Kippur on Wednesday so that’s why I did not post. The stock market gapped up at the open on Monday and did not look back. The same thing happened on Tuesday. On Wednesday it gapped down at the open and rallied all day. Do you see the trend? Notice how different this week has been from the last […]
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Date: October 6, 2022
Ready or Not, October is Here – Major Bottom Coming
Seasonal trends are like headwinds and tailwinds. They typically do not act as buy or sell signals. Nonetheless, the trends I wrote about a month ago definitely played out. The S&P 500 lost 10% in September and its reputation as a cruel month plays out again. When I penned September is a Cruel Month I did not think that September would be down 10%. That’s a huge outlier in the distribution of monthly returns. And let’s recall that the stock […]
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Date: October 3, 2022
Stock Market Not Reacting To The June Lows Yet
So far, the stock market has not responded to the June lows, meaning that we didn’t see any trap door selling nor a rush of buying. The reaction has been muted. I don’t think that helps. You can see the S&P 500 below, but the rest look similar except for the Dow Industrials. Okay. I will show the Dow as well below. It broke the June lows but hasn’t been able to quickly get back above it. What all this […]
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Date: September 30, 2022
Should Your IRA Include Real-Estate Investments?
If you have a self-directed IRA, you can hold a variety of different investments, such as stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. In fact, this kind of retirement plan allows investing in all types of real estate, including commercial properties and residential homes. However, before you decide to pursue this option, let’s examine some of the pros and cons of utilizing your IRA this way. The following topics are discussed below: What is a self-directed IRA (SIDRA)? The differences between SIDRAs […]
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Date: September 29, 2022
Something Breaking Part II
So far, the only index to really break the June lows has been the Dow Industrials. The S&P 500, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 did a quick dive and recovery which likely stopped out many traders. At this point that does not qualify as a terminating move from which a major rally emerges although the stock market is getting closer both in terms of price and time. I have been targeting October and its bear killing history and nothing has […]
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Date: September 28, 2022
The Rocky Road & Silver Lining – How & When The Stock Market Bottoms
Stocks fell hard again on Thursday and Friday morning before firming into the weekend during the last two hours. Late day Friday comebacks are always suspect but a low isn’t impossible. In fact, the stock market should be close to at least a trading low and likely this week before perhaps rolling over to one more decline before the ultimate bottom. Rosh Hashanah begins tonight at sundown and the old adage is to sell before the holiday and buy when […]
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Date: September 26, 2022
Something Breaking Somewhere
The S&P 500 ended last week at 3873. Today, it stands at 3757. Unless the index rallies more than 100 points today, the weakest week in the weakest month in the weakest year will have struck again. Some wondered whether last week’s weakness was front running this week. We now know that was not the case. The odds were high that this week would be down, clearly not by this magnitude because long-term studies never get that right with so […]
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Date: September 23, 2022
