How a 2023 Recession May Impact the Elderly
As the economy continues to show uncertainty, many people are asking themselves how a potential recession in 2023 may impact their finances and future plans. This is especially vital for the elderly population: People living on fixed incomes are facing heightened levels of financial concern alongside retirees-to-be with fewer working-age years left before retirement age. Even financially independent families and individuals should be aware of the potential risks posed by a 2023 recession. It’s vital to understand which actions taken […]
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Date: March 30, 2023
Seasonals Remain Strong – Banks Still Key
As I mentioned on Monday this week continues to be strong on a seasonal basis. Last week’s high in the various major stock market indices is the next point for the bulls and bears to embrace. Until then on the upside it is just noise, however I do believe the market will exceed those highs shortly. Beyond this week, we also have strong seasonal trends in April and the entire Q2. Remember, seasonals act as nice tailwinds or headwinds, but […]
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Date: March 29, 2023
It’s ALL About the Banks
I know it was a big ask for both Huskies teams to make it to Texas, but the men came through and earned their first Final Four appearance since 2014. Friday was another interesting day in the saga of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature and Credit Suisse. It was only a matter of time before the bears turned their focus to Deutsche Bank as I mentioned last week. The difference is that the German government is not going to allow DB […]
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Date: March 27, 2023
Stress Ahead of the Weekend – Yellen & Her Flip Flops
The Fed did what was expected and hiked 1/4%. Jay Powell’s press conference was viewed positively by the markets. It looks like maybe one more 1/4% rate hike and then to neutral. But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen overshadowed Powell by doing a flip flop of her flip flop. And I am not referring to the rubber things I wear on my feet when it’s warm. On Wednesday she commented that the government has no intention of guaranteeing an unlimited amount […]
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Date: March 24, 2023
Fed to Hike by 1/4% – Balance Sheet Balloons Again!
Today, the FOMC (Fed) concludes their regularly scheduled two-day meeting. And for the first time in years, there are two outcomes being discussed by market participants which makes today all the more interesting. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally into the close post-2pm. However, we should realize that the stock market has rallied smartly into the announcement, taking some firepower away. In my view what usually is an 80% certainty […]
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Date: March 22, 2023
UBS, Fed and More of the Same
While the major stock market indices struggled on Friday and it looked on the ugly side, the range from high to low was still in between the range from Thursday. The NASDAQ 100 remains the strongest and the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 remain the weakest. I would like to see the weak bounce without the leaders ceding. That may be a tall task right here, but the bulls need to get prices to close above Thursday’s high. Over the […]
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Date: March 20, 2023
Markets Still on Edge
The end to a volatile week is here and the “risk on” markets fared well over the past two days. The bears tried to break keenly watched levels, but they were thwarted at each attempt. The NASDAQ 100 has behaved very well along with other growth indices while mid and small cap have been lagging. This combination makes an assessment more challenging. While I love seeing tech and the subsectors rally and lead, the market absolutely needs the financials to […]
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Date: March 17, 2023
Volatility Rising But Nowhere Close to 2008 or Even 2022
I am still surprised that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) created so much panic and anxiety over the weekend since the news broke on Friday. I guess losing two banks in the blink of an eye with the second and third largest failures in history reminded too many people of 2008. As I have said too many times to count, this is not 2008. It’s not even close except that it’s in the same millennium. Don’t get me wrong. I am […]
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Date: March 15, 2023
Bank Failure, Bank Runs and Images of 2008
As I mentioned on Friday to those who receive our regular blog updates, markets had two giant pieces of news to digest. First, Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was put into receivership by the FDIC and then we had the February employment report. I thought I was going to spend this post on the latter as it’s the biggest economic report of the month and would offer clues on what the Fed would be doing next week when they meet again. […]
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Date: March 13, 2023
Bears in Control as Market Waits on Big News
Lots of market moving news this morning. The monthly jobs report will be out at 8:30am and while I do not have a strong view on the number, I do think that last month’s crazy good number will be revised lower. We also have news on Silicon Valley Bank about a capital raise gone wrong. That is never a good thing for a bank and raises solvency issues. I vividly remember Bear Sterns in 2008. On the Friday before they […]
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Date: March 10, 2023
Powell Rained on the Parade
It’s always interesting from week to week and month to month when the markets react to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s various speeches and Fed minutes. He and the Fed have been clear on the path for interest rates, yet the reactions have been all over the map. On Tuesday Powell spoke and reiterated that we would see higher rates for longer. This time after a two-day market rally, stocks basically gave back the rally from the second day. Mid and […]
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Date: March 8, 2023
Hating, Disavowing and Fighting the Rally
For all the complaining I do regarding Mother Nature, it would be rude and disrespectful if I did not thank her for the 15 inches of snow she dropped on us Friday night and Saturday morning in Vermont. So, thank you kindly! On Friday I wrote about the bulls battling back precisely at the time when the bears were about the declare victory. The same thing happened in December as well as last October. While the masses are all disavowing, […]
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Date: March 6, 2023
Bulls Battle Back Right on Cue
Over the past week I have been pointing out that I wanted to see stocks gather themselves and the bulls take charge again. I didn’t want to see much more than a 5% pullback as that would open up further downside. On Thursday the stock market did collect itself after a rough morning that took the S&P 500 below the February lows. By the end of the day we saw strength and a nice reversal. But we need to see […]
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Date: March 3, 2023
Are You Ready for Tax Season?
Are you prepared for the upcoming tax season? With deductions, changes in regulations, inflation, and sometimes-uncertain markets, it’s important to take a moment and evaluate your financial position before filing. Tax season can be an especially stressful time for affluent families and individuals: The filing process often involves numerous documents, scaling hungrily with the size of your income. However, with enough forethought and planning, it doesn’t have to be painful. Whether you’ve yet to begin collecting your tax records or […]
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Date: March 2, 2023
Bulls Need to Gather Themselves Quickly
Let me start off by reiterating that nothing has changed in my outlook on the first half of 2023 or the full year. However, I cannot say I am exactly excited about how stocks have behaved lately. While I do not think it’s anything cataclysmic they do need to start gathering themselves and quickly. A move for anything other than a day below last week’s low would open the door for lower prices and likely give up all of 2023’s […]
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Date: March 1, 2023
Bears Make More Noise – Some Key Actions for the Bulls
The stock market returns from its worst week of 2023 with a higher opening indicated, not exactly what I wanted to see after last week’s drubbing. I would much prefer a lower open that exceeds Friday’s low, stabilizes and then gathers some steam into lunch. The risk is always that the opening range is the high for the day and then sellers come in strongly. The S&P 500 is below and you can see how it rallied to my horizontal, […]
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Date: February 27, 2023
Bears Testing The Downside
The stock market continues to absorb the latest barrage of hotter than expected inflation news from the CPI, PPI and PCE this morning. While stocks and bonds have pulled back, the dollar has rallied. As was my theme in Q4, the stock market needs a softer dollar (see chart below) and 2-Year and 10-Year that do not make new highs for a durable bottom to remain. Right now, that thesis is being tested. The 10-Year yield is below and it […]
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Date: February 24, 2023
Bears Work Not Done – Bonds Key
On Friday the “risk on” markets put in another solid showing in the face of hotter economic news. Any day other than a Friday and I would have been more excited that a little low was forming. Fridays are notoriously poor days to establish a bottom. Markets come back from a nice, three-day weekend with the bears looking to do some damage with pre-market action showing a move beneath Friday’s low. That’s not exactly the warm and fuzzy the bulls […]
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Date: February 21, 2023
How to Recession-Proof Your Retirement Savings
A lot of people have been Googling, “are we headed for a recession?” This is because a growing number of people in the financial industry see a recession this year as inevitable. Opinions vary as to how long it could last or how severe it’s likely to be, but nearly everyone agrees that it’s happening. At this point, it’s more of a question of “how soon” than anything else. However, another good question may be, “Should I be concerned about […]
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Date: February 20, 2023
2-Year & Fed Funds in Harmony Today
More hotter than expected inflation came in on Thursday and several Fed heads were out in the media reinforcing their higher for longer message. While the 2-Year has bounced this month it is currently sitting right on the Fed Funds Rate, meaning temporary perfect equilibrium. The next thing to watch for is when the 2-Year hits 4%. That will confirm the rate hike cycle is officially and firmly over. I expect to see that next quarter. I also want to […]
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Date: February 17, 2023
