A Change in Tune? Decline Unfolding?
It would be impossible for any of my readers to not know my theme of epic greed and euphoria in the financial markets since late last year. Yet, stocks keep forging ahead, almost unabated except for a very brief 4% pullback a few weeks ago. Make no mistake about it, a sentiment landscape like this is not going to end well. To be crystal clear, excessive risk taking is going to be severely punished. Please do not email me with […]
Read More
Date: February 22, 2021
How to Get Accurate and Realistic Retirement Projections
Decisions about retirement have both objective and subjective components. Generally, the objective components deal with your money – how much you’ll have and how much you’ll need. To get accurate and realistic retirement projections, you’ll also need to consider other factors, such as your age, health, debt and estate plans. On the subjective side is deciding when to retire, where to live after retirement, and what to do with yourself in retirement. Do you have family that you want to […]
Read More
Date: February 22, 2021
Another Opp For The Bulls
Stocks have pulled back so mildly over the past few days with the Russell 2000, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 leading the way. Yet, there is a short-term buying opportunity in the stock market as today is an expiration day. Those indices that fell that hardest are supposed to bounce the most and likely to new highs. The key will be if one or more do not. That would be an opportunity to further prune and move away from the […]
Read More
Date: February 19, 2021
Now It’s About Rates
The yield on long-dated treasuries is set to jump this morning and the pundits are all over this. You can see in the chart below that the 10-Year Treasury Note has gone from almost 2% a year ago to 0.40% at the height of the Corona Crash in March to almost 1.30% today. That is hardly a surge in long-term interest rates and a gross exaggeration that equity investors are going to eschew stocks for bonds. But yet, we have […]
Read More
Date: February 16, 2021
SPACs the New Dotcom
It’s rare when my blog topics become the same day after day after day. I force myself to think if I am being lazy or there really is nothing new to write about. Perhaps some days, it is a combination of both. The major stock market indices continue to grind higher. Nothing new. My four key sectors, banks, semis, discretionary and transports are not all in sync at new highs, but they are all rallying. High yield bonds are at […]
Read More
Date: February 10, 2021
It’s Confirmed. I Was Wrong
As you know, my thesis has been for an absolute minimum 4-8% pullback in Q1 to at least move the sentiment needle from greed and euphoric to neutral. Well, Mr. Market gave us the bare minimum 4% decline, but not only did it not repair anything, it has actually made the landscape even worse. Rather than weak handed investors selling, it seems like anyone not involved in the Gamestop Saga bought the decline. That was a bit of a surprise. […]
Read More
Date: February 8, 2021
A High Net-Worth Financial Planning Tip: 6 Times to Revisit Your Budget
Few things are more personal than your budget. Among other things, a budget is an attempt to impose order upon an unpredictable future. Your budget should reflect your priorities and your financial circumstances, both of which can shift over time. Affluent, high net worth professionals have many opportunities for setting, achieving and revising goals that are sensitive to dynamic changes – whether it’s responding to unanticipated events or fulfilling a long-held dream. Given the central role your budget plays in […]
Read More
Date: February 8, 2021
Am I Wrong?
Thankfully, the markets are calming down from the Gamestop Saga, but it is hard to believe that the whole thing is over. It may be over for the current stocks, but there should be others. And my experience says that the outcome will not be the same and the little guy will be hurt. I just do not believe that the hedge funds and big money will be fooled again. And neither will the platforms like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers. […]
Read More
Date: February 4, 2021
Bottom Not In But Pullback Is Buyable
I have put enough content out on the Gamestop Saga, between the blog and video and I am sure the vast majority of people are tired of reading about it. So, I will leave that alone for now. Stocks did not close last week or the month of January well. And for that matter, they didn’t close the day of Friday well either. But today is a new week and month and there is a strong trend for the stock […]
Read More
Date: February 1, 2021
Just The 4-8% Pullback
After a quick little bloodbath on Wednesday, stocks saw a feeble bounce on Thursday with another rollover to the downside looking to be the case on Friday. I would be shocked if Wednesday was the low to buy for a run to new highs. The most likely scenario has stocks making new lows for the week and that spills over into next week. This should be the 4-8% pullback in Q1 I have written about so often. I can only […]
Read More
Date: January 29, 2021
BEWARE! – Stocks (Gamestop) Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent
The stock market looks to open bright red today, something we haven’t seen in a while. Are short-term traders prepared? No way. I am guessing that even a mild to modest single digit decline will have most of them under their desks, sucking their thumbs in the fetal position. Look, the market has seen epic greed and euphoria since early November. However, the foundation of the market has been very solid until the past week. The theme over the past […]
Read More
Date: January 27, 2021
Sentiment Remains Ripe – Foundation Rock Solid
As I did my weekend review, it was apparent that all five major stock market indices were perfectly in sync, something that has been the case on and off since the bull market began. Usually, it has been the Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 2000, but today, the Dow Industrials are a little off. I do not believe this is a big deal in the grand scheme of things. As you know I have been writing about the epic level […]
Read More
Date: January 25, 2021
A Crack in the Pavement
Sitting here on Inauguration Day watching the markets shoot to new highs, I found myself complaining that so many of our positions were not participating in the rally that saw the major indices higher by 1.50% to 2.50%. That is unusual behavior. Now, I am not talking about the major indices we own like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Of course, they did fine. I am referring to our sector holdings and individual stocks. When I looked closer at […]
Read More
Date: January 21, 2021
***Q4 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very brief quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop reading here. The year where time stood still and just wouldn’t end has finally come to a close. It was certainly a year that will live in infamy. Most importantly, I am grateful that you and our other clients survived. 2020 was one of those generational years that made an indelible […]
Read More
Date: January 20, 2021
How Stocks Fare on Inauguration Day & Beyond
Wednesday is Inauguration Day (ID), a time of supposed new beginnings and a fresh start for the country. The truth of the matter is that stocks have been behaving as if there has been a new administration since the day after Election Day which they typically do. That’s how the four-year Presidential Cycle works in the markets. The markets don’t wait until January 20th and then realize there is a new sheriff in town. Intuitively, you would think that with […]
Read More
Date: January 19, 2021
Do You Really Need a Financial Advisor? Investing Mistake #1: Not Considering Inflation!
As a financial advisor in Woodbridge, CT, as well as the founder and president of Heritage Capital, I see some of the same dangerous mistakes made by DIYers (and sometimes bad financial advisors) when putting together a financial plan. It is not properly factoring in the detriments of inflation. Inflation is a general rise in prices over time, which reduces your purchasing power. In other words, it cuts your standard of living. It’s been tame for years, but don’t be […]
Read More
Date: January 18, 2021
Pullback is Here – Foundation Strong
The stock market looks to open mildly lower and the media is blaming incoming President Biden’s recently unveiled $1.9 trillion spending bill. Yet again, that is pure and utter nonsense. The market already knew his plan would be in the trillions and that it is already dead on arrival in its current form. It’s almost as if any down day needs an explanation as they are no longer allowed. Since October 30th when I pounded the table that this was […]
Read More
Date: January 15, 2021
Dotcom Era Euphoria Doesn’t Mean Imminent Bear Market
The short answer is yes. Epic greed and euphoria remain in the markets. Bitcoin may have mildly pulled back and Tesla hasn’t made a new high this week, but that won’t correct what is the single worst sentiment backdrop since the Dotcom Bubble. However, unlike the Dotcom era, the stock market’s foundation remains fairly solid. Recall that when the Dotcom stocks soared, they were the only game in town. The vast majority of stocks peaked in May 1998. Today, the […]
Read More
Date: January 13, 2021
All Smart Eyes on the Dollar – Top 15 Resolutions Video is Up
As you know, I offered my full Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2021 on Fox61 last week and I actually sped through the entire list. Over the weekend I made a video of that list and went into more detail on each of the resolutions. Here it is below. Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2021 Since Friday’s blog post, there is nothing that has changed any of my thinking regarding the markets. Stocks look like they will open down by […]
Read More
Date: January 11, 2021
Easy Money and Fun
So far in this young year, we have seen a new variant of highly contagious COVID, a blue sweep in Georgia resulting in unified government in DC and a massive protest gone awry with the United States’ Capitol being stormed by lunatics and destructive people. If I read you those headlines from Japan, Germany or Brazil and asked you to guess how their stock markets were performing, I think it is safe to say those most would estimate at least […]
Read More
Date: January 8, 2021
