OUCH!
Coming into the week after a drubbing last Friday there were strong winds blowing to begin the week. History suggested more selling on Monday with a likely attempt by the bulls to step and turn things around on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the opposite happened and Tuesday pushed prices to bottom end of the danger zone. Most of the major stock market indices are getting very close to the lowest levels seen in February and March. Frankly, that is not good for […]
Read More
Date: April 27, 2022
Another Shot Down & Rally
The stock market had a very rough end to the week, falling more than 5% from Thursday’s high to Friday’s close, ending with a 2.5% down day on Friday. That’s significant. Let’s unpack each number a little. Thursday to Friday collapses usually lead to one more big decline on Monday. There have only been a few instances to the contrary. However, down 2.5% Friday usually lead to a rally above Friday’s close with in the next week. The S&P 500 […]
Read More
Date: April 25, 2022
1994 & 2018 Still Offer the Best Clues on What Lies Ahead – Dow 40,000
A new video is posted. 1994 & 2018 Still Offer the Best Clues on What Lies Ahead – Dow 40,000
Read More
Date: April 24, 2022
Still Sloppy, Choppy & Frustrating
Stocks staged an impressive rally on Turnaround Tuesday, however we still did not see volume in stocks going up overwhelm that in stocks going down. The price action was strong and leadership was powerful. But remember, it was one single day. And for those operating on the thesis that this is a bear market, those kinds of rallies can and occur often. I am not one of them, but it should be said. Buying strength and selling weakness is tough […]
Read More
Date: April 20, 2022
Bulls Approaching The Danger Zone
Because of the holiday-shortened week last week, I wasn’t planning on a Thursday update, but I quickly cobbled one together. In my haste, I did not wish everyone celebrating, a Happy Passover and Easter. I hope yours was meaningful if you observed. Going without gluten for 8 days doesn’t make Passover a favorite. However, as I do every year, I ate pizza and/or pasta at least once a day for 7 days leading up to the holiday so I would […]
Read More
Date: April 18, 2022
Switching Financial Advisors: Finding A Pro in Connecticut
People hear the words “wealth management” and imagine somebody shuffling piles of gold coins around. Similarly, if they hear someone is “changing investment advisors,” they think it means swapping stock market coaches. The second one is right—because we do provide investing insights—but that’s only a small corner of the larger picture. My goal is to improve your overall financial life. Of course, this can happen through run-of-the-mill investing. However, it is more often due to interwoven fiscal strategies, like retirement […]
Read More
Date: April 18, 2022
Strong Seasonals & HOTTTT Inflation
Today is the day before Good Friday which is a seasonally strong day for stocks with surprisingly low downside when the bulls do not show up. Additionally, Monday is tax day which is also a strong seasonal day for stocks. The only 1%+ down days (2) in the past 20 days occurred with the S&P 500 below its average price of the last 20, 50 and 200 days. Today, the S&P 500 lies in between the 50 and 20/200. A […]
Read More
Date: April 14, 2022
Inflation Has Peaked
After a textbook thrust off of the March lows the stock market has not behaved well this month. Recall that the masses were beating their chest how strong April usually is for stocks. The last two days have not been pretty for the bulls, especially in the NASDAQ 100, and they do not have much leeway left for stocks to not turn ugly again. The bulls need to step up in the here and now which the odds still favor. […]
Read More
Date: April 13, 2022
Markets on Defensive – Oil Bear Market Rages On
Stocks return from the weekend the same way they began the weekend, on the defensive. After closing above the highest levels seen in February and sucking in investors, the stock market promptly reversed and is now pulling back again. The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 are mild so far, but the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 are deeper and more concerning. The technology sector just trades very heavy as interest rates continue to soar on the long […]
Read More
Date: April 11, 2022
Brainard Should Resign
Yesterday, I wrote about the little pullback in stocks. That was before Fed head Lael Brainard threw a big bucket of cold water on the markets. Brainard is usually in the dovish camp and was often mentioned as a replacement for Jay Powell if the liberals had their way with President Biden. Recall, she was widely considered as the front runner for Secretary of the Treasury if Hillary Clinton won in 2016. She’s certainly no hawk when it comes to […]
Read More
Date: April 7, 2022
A Little Pullback for Stocks
It wasn’t the ending UCONN Nation was hoping for in Minneapolis, but the best team all year with the best player all year won the national championship. UCONN was a M.A.S.H. unit all season and that carried right into the final buzzer. With another array of high school All-Americans coming to Storrs in a few short months, I have no doubt the team will be in Dallas this time next year. FYI, I am scheduled to join Maria Bartiromo on […]
Read More
Date: April 5, 2022
Retirement Planning: Will Social Security Really Go Broke?
The way people talk when discussing retirement planning, it sounds like a foregone conclusion. However, despite what you hear, Social Security probably isn’t going anywhere. Click here to view my recent video about the viability of Social Security. As a matter of fact, the Social Security Trust Fund is already at zero (even though some say it won’t reach that point for a few years): Our government has already borrowed trillions from it. Believe it or not, you can still […]
Read More
Date: April 4, 2022
Late Day Plunge to End The Month & Quarter
Greetings from the Ice Box of America, Minnesota, where it is surprisingly sunny and nice. I can’t decide if ice fishing, curling or the Mall of America is our on the docket for the weekend. With the month and quarter-end on Thursday we certainly saw some portfolio games in the last hour although they were not of the usual bullish variety. Check out the right side of the chart below. You can see the late day plunge that was essentially […]
Read More
Date: April 1, 2022
Stocks Rally Through Feb Highs – Bullish Sentiment Rising
On the surface we have seen one powerful move off the March bottom in the stock market. It’s been almost relentless with only one real down day out of 10. Additionally, we saw many of the major indices exceed their February highs, an area that has garnered much attention as lines in the sand for the bears to know they’re wrong. You can see that below in the S&P 500 with the blue, horizontal line. While I didn’t think stocks […]
Read More
Date: March 30, 2022
2022 Still Looking Like 2018 & 1994 – Details Below
As you know I have been viewing 2022 in the stock market as a challenging year, a frustrating year for both bull and bear alike. 2022 is a year that requires patience and quality, at least that was my theme as the year began and remains that way. By “challenging”, I do not mean like 2008, 2002 or 2001 which were years where few strategies worked and the indices were hit hard. No. I mean it is not going to […]
Read More
Date: March 28, 2022
Is This April 2008 Again? Answering Your Questions
Stocks continue to act very well off of the Fed week bottom. Momentum has been powerful and they have done nothing wrong. Heck, the S&P 500 is only about 6% from new highs. How many people noticed that? The headlines remain awful. Russia/Ukraine, inflation, supply chain. It’s ugly. I think famed investor Carl Icahn actually said he sees “recession or worse” coming up. I am not sure what that means exactly, but it sounds pretty dire. And yet stocks have […]
Read More
Date: March 25, 2022
2 Years Ago Today – Calling A Bottom
Let’s start off by recognizing that two years ago today was the COVID Crash bottom. I remember writing a post on this blog over the weekend how the downside momentum was waning although price continued lower, a key indication of an impending turn. Then there was the insanity from the paid actor pundits on those trading TV shows. There were guys literally falling over themselves to give the lowest target for the S&P 500. 1500 was shared by many. Some […]
Read More
Date: March 23, 2022
Stocks Set to Soar Over Next 12
Let me start off by sharing these high energy and fun segments from my visits to Fox Business and Yahoo. Market bottom coming. No recession. Consumer psyche already damaged as inflation peaks. Stocks have certainly rocketed off the lows from last Monday, precisely in the window of opportunity I wrote about for almost two months. I know I was crystal clear when I said that the February 24th bottom looked like the secondary and more important bottom from the January […]
Read More
Date: March 21, 2022
Reduce Your Retirement Tax Bill With a Backdoor Roth Conversion
Capital gains and other taxes spike for higher income brackets, so reducing tax liability is crucial in high net worth investing strategies. Roth IRAs present a rare opportunity to accumulate gains and withdraw them tax-free in retirement. However, direct contributions are not allowed for higher-income individuals. If your individual Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) is $144,000 in 2022 or your joint MAGI is $214,000 in 2022, you cannot contribute to a Roth IRA. However, there is another long-term investing strategy […]
Read More
Date: March 21, 2022
Stocks Rally Three Straight
As you know I have been targeting this week all quarter for the point where stocks begin to go up out of the bottom and not into the low or sideways. The last three days have seen 1%+ rallies for stocks. Not bad, but I am still not totally convinced it is off to the races again. While I do still believe Q2 is going to be a win for the bulls, there remain a few weeks to get to […]
Read More
Date: March 18, 2022
