Historic Selling Wave Ended
As I have been writing about for more than a week, I had high conviction that a low of some sort was forming. Dozens of stars were lining up and even if this was 2008 (it’s not), prices should still rebound 7-15%. And the bulls did what I said they were supposed to do. Step up and squeeze the bears. Prices are back to the peak from Fed day this month where the last plunge began. The bulls should surpass […]
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Date: May 27, 2022
Like a Broken Record – Volatility to Remain High
Greetings from Metro North, my first train ride to New York City since February 2020. Trains are still crowded. Masks are mandatory although 25-33% of the riders are not wearing them. And my parking lot in Milford CT is now a condo complex, something that would have been helpful to know before I arrived. Given how bad traffic has been to NYC, I think I am going to stick with the train for now. I am hoping to get my […]
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Date: May 25, 2022
Lots Of & Increasing Evidence That Stocks Are Bottoming For Now
The markets start the new week with the Dow Industrials having been down 8 straight weeks, the most since 1923 if you believe the old data are correct. This stat has been posted all over social media. It’s just stating the obvious. The stock market has been in one of the most relentless selling waves of all-time. That’s inarguable fact and obvious to anyone with skin in the game. But it’s still not easy to live through. My question for […]
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Date: May 23, 2022
Bear Market Or Not – Looking at Other Bottoms for Clues
The bulls made several stands on Thursday after a total drubbing on Wednesday. And as the all-important 3pm hour started it looked as if the bulls were going to make some noise and eat into the big losses from the day before. But that wasn’t to be, leaving stocks vulnerable into the weekend. Again, the bears need to immediately progress to new lows across the board with conviction to have short-term impact. That’s not the most likely scenario. If stocks […]
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Date: May 20, 2022
How Interest Rate Changes REALLY Impact Retirement
Yes, higher interest rates are here. No, they do not signal the end of your assets or savings. Despite market volatility in the markets and drama in the news, you can still retire with confidence in CT. In fact, retirees and those planning to retire in the New Haven and Hartford areas do not need to panic. Read on and I will explain both why and how you may even be able to increase your returns. Inflation, Interest Rates, […]
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Date: May 20, 2022
Nasty Decline But Not The End of The World
Note to self. Don’t go to the eye doctor first thing in the morning and expect to get work done before lunch with dilated pupils. Wednesday’s stock market decline seems to have really stirred the bears, more so than any one single day this year. Yes, the magnitude was four digits which usually gets people going, but almost nothing scored a new low. Not the Dow Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400, Russell 2000 nor NASDAQ 100. Only consumer discretionary did […]
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Date: May 19, 2022
I Do Love Lemonade
My last two posts last week were essentially taking lemons and turning them into lemonade. By the way I absolutely love lemonade, especially fresh and naturally flavored ones. Strawberry, blueberry, raspberry. Sign me up! Anyway, I started to see the making of a low last week and the first nail was hammered in on Thursday with confirmation on Friday. That was one of the nastiest and longest selling waves of the modern investing era. And I am assuming that it […]
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Date: May 16, 2022
Carnage Over?
What a long week it has been. What a long month it has been. What a long year it has been. Can we start over? Markets continue to be super volatile and that’s expected at the end of massive selling waves which this turned out to be. Remember, a snowball is biggest the second before it hit the bottom. Through Thursday this wave has lasted 31 days which puts it in rarefied air. We usually see selling waves last 18-25 […]
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Date: May 13, 2022
Finding a Few Rays of Sunshine
The government released CPI today and it came in .2% hotter than expected. Pre-market trading saw an immediate plunge in the equity markets. Early morning trading shows moves in both directions so we will need to see how everything settles out at 4pm. It will be a huge win for the bulls to close mildly lower today and more of the same for the bears with another route. The stock market has been really ugly and I have certainly been […]
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Date: May 11, 2022
Epic Oversold in The Depths of Despair
Monday was an ugly day coming after ugly days on Thursday and Friday. This is what the end of nasty selling waves look like. Monday was the third day in the last few weeks where 90% of the volume was trading in stocks that went down. That is widespread and pervasive selling of the indiscriminate variety. For sure, an entity or two were being forced to liquidate. I heard rumors last week about a major asset allocation shift using ETFs. […]
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Date: May 10, 2022
Strong Selling Wave Continues – Plenty of Opportunities
Good Monday Morning. The weather may finally turn nice in New England, but the markets begin the new week in the same crummy mood as last week and the week before that. And the story remains the same. Higher interest rates. Less confidence in the Fed. Inflation. The correction has been sharp and swift and painful with few places to hide. What different about this one is that the bond market’s decline has much worse on a relative basis. Bonds […]
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Date: May 9, 2022
A Few Green Shoots But For How Long?
What a week it has been! And there is still one day left although I will go out on a limb and say that Friday will look nothing like Wednesday or Thursday. On Wednesday the Fed raised rates by 1/2%, something everyone knew was coming. In my special Fed piece, I said that we would see a juiced post-2pm rally because of the selloff leading up to the meeting. Juiced was an understatement. Stocks soared in the last two hours […]
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Date: May 6, 2022
***Buckle Up Boys & Girls – Special Fed Meeting Update***
The model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Given the correction there is extra juice behind the model for post 2pm. Stocks are supposed to rally and I will add the word “strongly”. Today is the Fed day everyone has been waiting for. The day the Fed finally takes real action to combat inflation and slow down an economy that shrunk by 1.4% in Q1. Yes. You read that right. Jay Powell & […]
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Date: May 4, 2022
Lots of Market Worsts
Horrible week Horrible month Horrible year Lots of Market Worsts A new video is posted.
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Date: May 2, 2022
Negative GDP Growth Already?
Coming in to 2022 one of my main economic themes was slowing growth without recession. That would be accompanied by decelerating earnings growth and finally a blink by the Fed late in the year. On Thursday we got a first glimpse at Q1 GDP which came in at -1.4%, well below estimates of +1%. Yes; I know that people will rationalize it away because it was “inventory”, but facts are facts. I did not see the economy shrinking this early […]
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Date: April 30, 2022
OUCH!
Coming into the week after a drubbing last Friday there were strong winds blowing to begin the week. History suggested more selling on Monday with a likely attempt by the bulls to step and turn things around on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the opposite happened and Tuesday pushed prices to bottom end of the danger zone. Most of the major stock market indices are getting very close to the lowest levels seen in February and March. Frankly, that is not good for […]
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Date: April 27, 2022
Another Shot Down & Rally
The stock market had a very rough end to the week, falling more than 5% from Thursday’s high to Friday’s close, ending with a 2.5% down day on Friday. That’s significant. Let’s unpack each number a little. Thursday to Friday collapses usually lead to one more big decline on Monday. There have only been a few instances to the contrary. However, down 2.5% Friday usually lead to a rally above Friday’s close with in the next week. The S&P 500 […]
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Date: April 25, 2022
1994 & 2018 Still Offer the Best Clues on What Lies Ahead – Dow 40,000
A new video is posted. 1994 & 2018 Still Offer the Best Clues on What Lies Ahead – Dow 40,000
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Date: April 24, 2022
Still Sloppy, Choppy & Frustrating
Stocks staged an impressive rally on Turnaround Tuesday, however we still did not see volume in stocks going up overwhelm that in stocks going down. The price action was strong and leadership was powerful. But remember, it was one single day. And for those operating on the thesis that this is a bear market, those kinds of rallies can and occur often. I am not one of them, but it should be said. Buying strength and selling weakness is tough […]
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Date: April 20, 2022
Bulls Approaching The Danger Zone
Because of the holiday-shortened week last week, I wasn’t planning on a Thursday update, but I quickly cobbled one together. In my haste, I did not wish everyone celebrating, a Happy Passover and Easter. I hope yours was meaningful if you observed. Going without gluten for 8 days doesn’t make Passover a favorite. However, as I do every year, I ate pizza and/or pasta at least once a day for 7 days leading up to the holiday so I would […]
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Date: April 18, 2022
