Was That It? Pullback Over?
My, my, my, what a difference a day makes. The stock market went from the world ending to partying like it’s 1999 in the span of 18 hours. Oh how I enjoyed the pundits falling over themselves espousing their bearishness on Monday and turning tail on Tuesday. In my case, as you know, I wrote about playing some defense last week. And we did with some sales and hedging. After Monday’s rout I bought a small cap index, Cathie Woods’ […]
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Date: July 21, 2021
Bears Getting to Dance
The new week begins and the bears are out and about. If you listen to the morning media and pundits, you would think a repeat of March 2020 is here. I always laugh how people report the stock market in terms of points in the Dow Industrials. That’s more for shock value and attention than it is for relevance. Remember, when numbers get big, they sound much more important. A 1000 point move is supposed to happen with more regularity […]
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Date: July 19, 2021
Starting to Play Some Defense
Some of our models went neutral and some portfolios (remember, we have 18 strategies) reduced risk exposure to the largest degree since last September. We did a lot of outright selling as well as hedging on Tuesday, but those strategies are still net long risk. The models did not turn outright negative just yet. And they may not. As you know, while some of the major stock market indices have been making fresh new highs, the rising tide is no […]
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Date: July 16, 2021
Low Stress in Markets But Inflation Report Coming Up
On Friday we had the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 all at new highs. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 were absent. It just didn’t seem like a celebratory day. Perhaps, it was because the rising tide is not lifting all ships as I mentioned on Thursday. But the market is also not showing stress on the credit side either. Looking below at the high yield bond ETF, you can see that it is just a few pennies […]
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Date: July 12, 2021
Financial Planning for Women: Q&A
Several studies have shown that women are better investors than men, in that they earn higher returns, are less prone to volatile trading and pay less in commissions. You can agree or disagree, but that’s what the data shows. Some men have a difficult time accepting this. Yet, women face several gender-specific financial challenges throughout their lives, including unequal pay, taking time out for family reasons, higher costs for medical care, and a longer life expectancy than that for men. […]
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Date: July 12, 2021
Lots of Negatives Today – ONE Day Off ATHs
The stock market is looking lower in pre-market as comments about the Fed beginning to taper their $120 billion a month bond purchases as well as added regulations in China are worrying people. First of all, it’s clinically insane that the Fed is still buying $40 billion of mortgage backed bonds each month when the housing market is white hot all over the country. Why on earth does it need support? When I woke up this morning I heard one […]
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Date: July 8, 2021
Stats Say It’s Still Onward & Upward for the Bulls
I hope you had a safe and enjoyable Independence Day long weekend! While Mother Nature certainly did not cooperate in New England, it is still always great to celebrate America’s birthday and all she has stood for. Lots of interesting stats to post so let’s jump right in. The other day I wrote about the euphoric IPO market and some things investors should consider before jumping in. Today, I want to discuss a bunch of really cool stats about July […]
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Date: July 6, 2021
IPO Market Says Investors Are Greedy – Don’t Follow The Herd
June, Q2 and the first half of 2021 are in the books. Boy, as slow as 2020 went, 2021 is racing along. And this is with the markets really cooperating. I wish everything would slow down. I have so much to cover, but not enough time today so I am just going to offer some timely comments about the new offering market. FYI, I did a fun and educational interview on TD Ameritrade Network yesterday on this very topic along […]
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Date: July 2, 2021
Finishing Up June, Q2 and 1H
It’s the last day of the month, quarter and first half of the year. Certainly, do not be surprised to see some portfolio games being played although the markets have been super quiet this month. A week ago I wrote about the strong trend for small caps to outperform large caps through today. As you can see below which is a line of the S&P 500 divided by the Russell 2000, that trend has not played out this year. It […]
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Date: June 30, 2021
New Week
The stock market begins the last week of June with the bulls mildly in control. Don’t forget we have end of month and quarter this week along with many people beginning vacations. I won’t be among them although I do wish them a safe and enjoyable vacation. It has been a fun Q2 and great start to 2021 as the halfway mark approaches. As I have written for a while, I do not sense that the stock market is about […]
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Date: June 28, 2021
One Week Later & The Bulls Did Their Job
It has been a good week for the bulls! After four straight days of red ending last week, the bulls stepped up exactly when they should have. While I would have preferred a weaker opening on Monday the market doesn’t always cooperate perfectly. But this time, it was fairly easy to forecast higher prices, especially when Jim Cramer was imploring and begging people not to buy for another week, meaning today, after a big up week. Today, I am a […]
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Date: June 25, 2021
Bounce Came Right on Schedule – Now What?
The four straight days of decline where Jim Cramer implored people not to buy on day four have quietly passed. Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying the stock market can’t pull back here, but after four straight days of weakness in a bull market, the odds heavily favor at least a bounce. We got that bounce. That’s why Cramer is paid to be a commentator and entertainer and not a money manager. It’s not a knock. It’s just […]
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Date: June 23, 2021
7 Social Security Strategies Following the Pandemic
The past year has been one of unprecedented upheaval, but now, as we transition to a new normal, it’s time to take a fresh look at our finances. If you are approaching or have reached retirement age, this process should include reassessing your Social Security strategy for the post-pandemic world. Social Security is a major element of most retirement plans; so much in fact that at Heritage Capital, we’ve created this new guide: Understanding Social Security. However, as we move […]
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Date: June 22, 2021
Time for The Bulls to Make a Stand – Cramer Warning More Selling
The stock market has now closed lower for four straight days and three consecutive post-Fed meeting. The pullback has been healthy and relatively modest, so far. On Friday we saw one of the big, quarterly options and futures expirations which usually see prices rally into the day and selloff post. That didn’t happen. Many people are focused on the negative seasonal trend post-June expiration. However, most people are lazy and do not dig beneath the surface. I am not saying […]
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Date: June 21, 2021
Watch The Reaction Not The News
I lost track of how many times in 32 years I have said, “it’s not what the news is, but how markets react”. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve concluded their two-day meeting. As I wrote about, the Fed did nothing and said nothing. Everything was as expected. That led to an initial reaction that Powell & Company were more hawkish, meaning more skewed towards tightening policy. Stocks sold off. Bonds sold off. Gold sold off. The dollar rallied. One day […]
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Date: June 18, 2021
Fed Meeting Ending – No Fireworks Expected
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today. The stock market model is for plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. There are several historical trends which point to higher prices today based on stocks not being at new highs as well as market action so far this week that was not strong. If stocks rally today, especially after the 2pm announcement and Powell’s tea and crumpets with the press, there may a trend calling for mildly […]
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Date: June 16, 2021
Froth & Greed Are Back
Greetings from 38,000 feet as my JetBlue flight to Florida bumps along down the east coast. The markets begin the new week on continued solid footing over the intermediate-term. All market foundations appear to be solid which indicate that there should not be any major changes in trend. However, that doesn’t preclude any market, especially stocks, from seeing modest to moderate weakness over the short-term. Right now, the vast majority of stocks on the NYSE are above their long-term and […]
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Date: June 14, 2021
Inflation Soaring – Bonds Yields Falling – HMMMMM…
As you know, inflation soared in May coming in at the highest level, 5%, since August 2008. The core rate which removes food and energy because they are so volatile was 3.8% which is the highest since 1992. On the surface that is really hot and very worrisome. But my readers already knew this was coming as I began discussing it 10 months ago. Some of our portfolios introduced commodities in the middle of last year while others added my […]
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Date: June 11, 2021
I Was Wrong – We Have a Problem
I was wrong. Last week, I left you with my opinion that April’s well below expected employment report was just an anomaly or aberration. And that a big upward revision was coming along with a strong May report. Well folks, May was weaker by more than 100,000 new jobs. Thankfully, the unemployment rate came in as expected. Two months is now a nascent trend and there is something structurally wrong with the economy. You know my trifecta. Vaccines + Massive […]
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Date: June 8, 2021
5 Common Concerns Investors Have Today
As COVID-19 continues to recede, investors must re-adapt to an investment environment less distorted by the economic effects of the pandemic. Add to this new environment some of the same concerns that existed pre-pandemic, and there’s a lot of fear and confusion about investing today and in the future. To help investors navigate this interesting time, I publish regular articles to the Heritage Capital blog and speak to national and local media outlets. At Heritage Capital, we also created a […]
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Date: June 8, 2021
