Still Bullish. Junk Bonds & Taxes
Stocks have definitely been quiet of late although that’s from a bull’s perspective from the inside looking out. There has been a very slight drift higher. From a bear’s perspective from the outside looking in, it must be painful first watching stocks relentlessly melt up and then continue to grind higher day after day after day. These types of markets wear on anyone holding cash waiting to invest. From my perspective, I have tried to do my best not to […]
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Date: April 15, 2019
Junk Bonds Say Full Steam Ahead
It’s been a fairly quiet few days for stocks after the better than expected employment numbers were released on Friday. The economy created 196,000 new jobs versus the 175,000 expected. As I wrote about then, I was expecting a strong number with a sharply higher revised number for February. While the former happened, the latter certainly didn’t as February was only revised higher from 20,000 to 33,000. There’s nothing wrong the major indices. All looks fine. The four key sectors […]
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Date: April 9, 2019
Jobs Friday
Today, we have what is always labeled as the “all important” monthly jobs report. Frankly, given the Fed’s recent 170 degree turn, I don’t think it’s that vital unless the data either completely fall off a cliff or completely spike. Both are unlikely. After February’s unexpectedly weak report, I said that I fully expect a sharp revision higher when March’s report is released in early April as well as a decent report for March. I still feel that is the […]
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Date: April 5, 2019
Lyft a Bust??? Stocks Soar & Roar
Last week, we ended with the hottest and most anticipated IPO in a very long time. It was one that caused me to dust off my HOT IPO Roadmap and tell you to run for the hills. Lyft came public to all the glory and hoopla of a Ringling Brother circus. And certainly not to my surprise, it fell flat on its face after running above $88. Last I checked, it was sub $70. The pundits were chastising Uber for […]
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Date: April 2, 2019
Hot IPO, LYFT, Coming Out. Time to Buy?
“Hot” IPOs like Alibaba, Twitter and Facebook are usually very emotional, much anticipated and huge financial media events. Investors clamor for these stocks, usually throwing caution to the wind as fundamentals are trampled by greed. The media are usually camped out at the NYSE or NASDAQ with minute by minute updates as to where the stock may open. As I have discussed over and over, emotion in investing can have a very detrimental impact on your portfolio! That’s one of […]
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Date: March 29, 2019
Stocks Pause, Bonds Yields Collapse
Greetings from Baltimore with some absolutely beautiful spring weather waiting for me! I knew my day would be great on Tuesday when I arrived at the airport and saw not a soul around. From the time I dropped my car off at 7am to the time they closed the boarding door at 7:30am to the time I landed and picked up my rental car at 9:15am, every minute was a pleasure! And my day only got better from there as […]
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Date: March 27, 2019
Boeing, Mueller and Yield Curve, OH MY!
A week ago, I started off my writing that a stronger seasonal headwind was in play for the week, but I didn’t think it would be a significant decline. Stocks did pause overall, pulling back about 1% although it certainly did feel like there was more to it, especially if you watched the various headlines come across with Boeing and the Mueller investigation, BREXIT and the yield curve once again. For a stock market that has risen almost vertically since […]
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Date: March 25, 2019
The Most Unanticipated FOMC Meeting
The Most Unanticipated FOMC Meeting Today is one of the most unanticipated Fed statement days in recent memory. How will we ever survive without hearing that “today is the most important Fed day ever”? I say that because absolutely nothing is really expected today. Chairman Jay Powell did his 170 degree turn earlier this year and the Fed is now on a new course. Okay. Maybe, I am exaggerating a little bit. Perhaps, we will hear about their plans to […]
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Date: March 20, 2019
Strong Sector Leadership. Seasonal Headwind This Week.
As I wrote about last week, stocks ended their deepest and longest pullback since the Christmas bottom. And that was all of 3% and 5 days. Not much for the bears to hang their hopes on. I also commented that I wanted to see which sectors led out of that pullback since it was unlikely that the rising tide would continue to lift all ships. Since the March 8th low, the bulls should be proud that it’s been a “risk […]
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Date: March 18, 2019
If At First You Don’t Succeed…
On Wednesday, the bulls tried to break stocks above what pundits are calling the “key” line in the sand. This was the fourth such attempt in the past three weeks. As I mentioned before the first try almost always fails and the second is usually a little more emotional. After that, one of the attempts usually sticks. You can see this on the chart below. Today, is that fourth attempt and we will see where the bulls end up. Given […]
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Date: March 15, 2019
Once Again, the Bears Get Left Behind, Waiting, Hoping & Praying
Greetings from LA! Hopefully, this is the final day of a long, three city trip. I always debate compressing my trips into fewer ones so I can get a lot accomplished with less flying. In today’s case, this massive winter storm will likely result in my flight being canceled to Denver. So, my fingers and toes are crossed that I can get back to CT tonight and not have to deal with the masses tomorrow. Last Friday, I wrote about […]
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Date: March 13, 2019
ECB & Feb Jobs Report Says NO to Fed
Greetings from 36,000 feet as I am heading from Florida to LA. There were two major non-financial market news items from last week which I think warrant serious attention. The first was the European Central Bank (ECB) which downgraded their view of the European economy from 1.7% growth to 1.1% growth. That may not seem like “stop the presses” news, but with growth teetering around 1%, the ECB has to be very concerned about recession across Europe and not just […]
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Date: March 11, 2019
The Pullback to Buy is Here. But the Pundits Will Worry.
The pause to mild pullback eliminated the pause as the bears sunk their teeth into the markets a little deeper on Thursday. The March 4 peak and reversal day I referenced a few days ago now has a bit more significance although indices saw their highs on February 25. I am traveling so I won’t get to pay enough attention to the chatter, but I am guessing there will be some focus on the S&P 500 falling back to its […]
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Date: March 8, 2019
Buy Weakness Until Proven Otherwise
Stocks are continuing the recent pause or mild pullback. Monday’s action saw the indices reverse to the downside and now we’re watching to see if the market can close below Monday’s lowest level to signal further downside. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have exhibited the best relative strength with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 much weaker this week. On the downside, I wouldn’t expect more than a few percent with the Dow likely to find a little […]
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Date: March 6, 2019
Pullback Over? GDP Report a WOWZA
All week stocks have been in pullback mode but it sure doesn’t feel like it. What is the S&P 500 down from its intra-day peak? Not even 1%. Overnight trading suggests a test of 2019 highs. Again, when the masses have been sitting in so much cash all year, waiting for stocks to go down 5%, 10% and 15%, it provides a strong cushion against such a decline. The slightest bit of weakness continues to be bought, until it isn’t. […]
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Date: March 1, 2019
A Pullback? What’s That??
After a nearly vertical rise in stock prices since the Christmas bottom, the market seems to have put in a short-term peak on Monday. There is nothing to suggest that this will be anything more than a routine, normal and healthy pullback which could be a few days and a few percent or a longer period of sideways action. On Monday, all five major stock market indices hit recovery highs and new highs for 2019. On Monday, all four key […]
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Date: February 27, 2019
Running Out of Descriptions
The epic rally from the Christmas bottom continues unabated. leaving more than a few people scratching their heads. The rally just isn’t conforming to historical norms and all those people waiting on the sidelines have been left behind, completely and utterly embarrassed. Actually, most of those people just keep digging their heels in to hate and disavow the rally. I can’t even count how many of those fast money guys and gals look like bigger clowns than they already are. […]
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Date: February 25, 2019
VIX Says Full Steam Ahead for Bulls
While stocks “paused” on Thursday, it’s something you can hardly see on a chart. Since the Christmas low, all the market has given back has been one to two days here and there. Remember, in the strongest of trends, a two day pullback is really all you get until the first real trading range sets in to frustrate bull and bear alike. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 followed by the Volatility Index or VIX. As you know, […]
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Date: February 22, 2019
Yet Another Sign of Confirmation
The chart below is one I first learned about from my good friend, Tom McClellan. Tom and I have known each other for 25 years and I always enjoy our email threads regarding research. Below you can see the the S&P 500 in the top chart and one of Tom’s indicators in the bottom which is called the McClellan Summation Index. How it is created doesn’t matter, only that it’s a measure of thrust and participation in rallies and declines. […]
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Date: February 21, 2019
Just Keeps Powering Ahead
By now there should have been some pullback, any pullback. But no, the stock market continues to defy the odds. Sure, there have been a few small pauses, but nothing close to even a 2% decline. All the way up, naysayer after naysayer just keeps disavowing and hating the rally. I do love how many people continue to revise history and say that they called the bottom and the magnitude of this rally. In my next life, I am coming […]
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Date: February 20, 2019
