NASDAQ 100 Still Ugly
Those looking for volatility certainly got their wish this week as moves were seen Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. With Friday being the start of an unofficial four day weekend, I doubt there will be much action without a major news event. In Wednesday’s piece, I offered that stocks could bounce into the 4th holiday and then see some more downside, especially in the NASDAQ 100. Well, Thursday didn’t work out so well for that forecast! At the open, all […]
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Date: June 30, 2017
NASDAQ 100 to Bounce and then Fully Correct
As has been the case since the big “shock” day in the NASDAQ 100 on June 9, I have been a little cautious (neutral) on that index and more positive on the Dow and S&P as it looked like leadership was rotating. In healthy bull markets, this is normal and a good thing. The problem comes when leadership stops rotating into the more aggressive sectors and heads into the defensive ones like staples, utilities and REITs. Tuesday saw follow through […]
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Date: June 28, 2017
Fakeout or Breakout
Friday saw the most constructive market action of the week with the little pullback seeming to come to an end. Early indications are that the bulls will continue moving stocks higher today. Starting with the NASDAQ 100, for now, until the June high or low is closed above or below respectively, I am going to remain in the neutral camp although I continue to believe that new highs will be eventually seen. It looks like the index’s leadership role has […]
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Date: June 26, 2017
Pretty Good Little Fight
It’s been 24 years since I moved out of New York City to the calm and quiet of CT. I love hearing nature at night in my pitch black bedroom instead of the horns and trucks driving down the avenues. I stayed in the city last night as I had an early conference for our custodian this morning at the NYSE and I wasn’t really interested in getting up at 4:30am to train in. Well, I forgot how loud the […]
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Date: June 23, 2017
Seasonals Say No, But Bulls Say Yes
The major stock market indices closed last week on decent footing and should be poised for further gains with the Dow and S&P 500 seeing new highs first . Even the recently hit NASDAQ 100 hung in and remains above the line in the sand I drew last week. However, this week is a seasonally weak one as it’s the five days immediately following June option expiration. We’ll see how that plays out as pre-market indications show a higher open. […]
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Date: June 19, 2017
Bulls Still in Charge (as is Amazon!)
The major stock market indices put in a very constructive day on Thursday with stocks opening at their lows for the day and closing in the upper end of the range. The beaten down NASDAQ 100 saw the best behavior as it tries to repair itself from two unexpectedly large and volatile down days over the past month from all-time highs. One clue will be a weekly closing price for this index and the semiconductors near the high for the […]
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Date: June 16, 2017
Stocks Looking Down After Rate Hike
Everything happened as expected on Wednesday. Stocks stayed in a tight range until 2PM. The Fed raised rates. Yellen spoke about reducing the balance sheet. And the bullish Fed trend was significantly muted. Given how stocks closed, there is a very short-term trend which indicates lower prices today and possibly into next week. However, with the stock market set to open lower, the opportunity to take advantage is likely gone. The Dow is now the leading index and that’s not […]
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Date: June 15, 2017
Fed to Hike Rates Today In Spite of Falling Inflation. Dow 23,000 Next
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Five meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement day which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, as with most statement days, […]
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Date: June 14, 2017
Another Tech Wreck
Between the ECB, UK and Comey, there was lots of news to digest. However, stocks really didn’t seem to care. The ECB did nothing and hinted that the European economy was improving. Comey testified and you couldn’t turn left or right without hearing “expert” commentary from the pundits. As expected, it was much ado about nothing. The big shocker came from the UK where PM Theresa May underestimated her constituency when she called for a general election. Hoping to strengthen […]
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Date: June 9, 2017
What Else is New? The Bears are Wrong!
Two whole days of consolidation. In modern terms, that sounds like a correction! Of course, I am kidding as pullbacks have been few and far between lately, not to mention shallow and brief. The Dow and the S&P 500 are digesting in textbook fashion with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 still not behaving the way I would like. The former is starting to show very early signs of leading, but we have been down this road before. The NASDAQ […]
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Date: June 7, 2017
Mixed Messages to Start the New Week
A new week, more of the same geopolitical news. Terrorist attacks in London. Trump tweeting. Economic mixed messages. Fed to raise rates. Stocks see more new highs. Friday’s market behavior was fine with the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 all adding to their recent new high run, however the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 seemed to run out of gas after lunch. Participation and leadership were solid. Friday’s employment report was also a mixed bag with the economy creating […]
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Date: June 5, 2017
Love or Hate It, Markets Don’t Care about Trump
On Thursday, the Dow and S&P 500 broke to fresh all-time highs to join the NASDAQ 100. The major index trading range since early March appears to be ending in favor of the bulls. I say “appears” because although breakouts are beginning to occur, every now and then they are fake (like news) and immediately reverse and head in the opposite direction. Only the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are lagging, but I would think they should both follow suit […]
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Date: June 2, 2017
Odd Day on Thursday Gives Warning
Thursday was an interesting day in the stock market. All of the major indices were up nicely in the morning. And while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 continued making new highs into the afternoon, the S&P 400, Russell 200 and Dow Industrials did not with the first two seeing real weakness during the afternoon. Additionally, even though the NYSE A/D Line and high yield bonds also scored new all-time highs as you can see below, the former went from […]
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Date: May 26, 2017
Bulls Are Resilient
On May 8th, I first started discussing what I saw as a skewed risk/reward ratio with 500 possible points of upside and 1000 points possible on the downside. Over the years when there was a decent chance for stocks to decline, I often referred to it as a window of opportunity that stays open for a period of time before closing. Three weeks after my comments, stocks have basically gone nowhere. We saw a brief dip when the “hysteria” over […]
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Date: May 25, 2017
Missing the Excitement
While nothing has really changed regarding the risk and reward for stocks, the bulls have moved the major indices a bit further than I thought they would after last week’s one day drubbing. Frankly, I thought we would see a few days up and then rollover for another decline towards the lower end of my risk range, Dow 20,000. Instead, the Dow is in the upper middle, giving the edge to neither group. The bears can point to the Russell […]
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Date: May 23, 2017
Bears Whipped into a Frenzy. Half Way There
I find it mildly amusing that after a 3000 point rally in the Dow, bears and pundits have been whipped into a frenzy because the Dow went down 370 points in one day. Talk about overly dramatic and idiotic. The bull market ain’t over folks, the same line I have said every day, week, month, quarter and year since 2009. Disavow and hate as they may, the bears have been, are and will be wrong. Don’t get me wrong. One […]
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Date: May 18, 2017
Impeachment? Another Watergate? What Will the Bears Say Next?
With yet another story “breaking” about President Trump, the markets seem to finally care, even if it’s only a short-term pullback which I believe it is. Day after day, week after week and month after month, there has been an ongoing deluge of negative stories in the press about Trump, whether deserved or not. The markets just kept yawning and moving higher. Until today. I would expect a barrage of impeachment calls and calls for independent investigations, etc. Markets will […]
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Date: May 17, 2017
Reality over Rhetoric
The markets begin the week with little changed from last week. Volatility remains absurdly low, but remember, regardless of what you hear on the financial shows, markets do not go down just because vol is low. And bull markets do not end with vol so low. The major stock market indices are not in sync. The Dow continues in its range but looks to be testing the top of it. The S&P 500 should try to poke above its range […]
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Date: May 15, 2017
Lines in the Sand Drawn
We saw a fairly strong selling wave on Thursday during the first hour of trading. However, by mid afternoon, the bulls stepped right back up and recouped all of the losses before closing modestly lower. Their resilience continues. Given how most of the major indices are positioned, the bulls need to score new highs sooner than later to reset the clock. On the bears’ side, a close below Thursday’s low should set a deeper pullback in motion. That’s the one […]
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Date: May 11, 2017
Bulls Still in Control Over Long-Term
Let’s continue on the same theme I started the other day, risk versus reward. While I firmly believe that the bull market remains alive and fairly healthy, I do not like the risk/reward right here. My view is that Dow 21,600 is the upside ceiling while downside risk looks to be 20,000 or even a little lower. That’s just not the set up you want over the long-term and I think pruning and protecting is the right call here, whether […]
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Date: May 10, 2017
