Key Sectors Sending Up Bearish Warning Signs
Last week, in Major Indices Issue Warning, I discussed how the strength in the Dow and S&P 500 were masking weakness in the other major indices and how a warning sign was given. Today, I go a step further and dive into the key sectors of the stock market. We begin this section with the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 all showing relative weakness, a clear red flag. Below is the first key stock market sector and also […]
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Date: May 9, 2014
All-Time Highs in Sight
This is it. Put up or shut up time for the Dow and S&P 500. Both are positioned constructively to power to all-time highs over the next week. And I think they will. With sentiment mixed, it’s hard to believe that there will be any mass celebration of new highs, especially with the index problems I discussed here. In fact, I think there is very little chance that the three other major indices will confirm the Dow and S&P 500 […]
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Date: May 6, 2014
Economy “Booming”
288,000 NEW jobs created in April. Unemployment rate plummets to “only” 6.3%. The U.S. economy is back! Does it feel like that to you or your friends? My thesis since the crisis began has been that post financial crisis recoveries are frustrating. They tease and tantalize on the upside but rarely deliver. GDP growth never hits “escape velocity” and unemployment remains stubbornly high. With the government printing a 6.3% that’s hard to still say “stubbornly high”. Digging into the details […]
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Date: May 3, 2014
No Foot in Mouth for Yellen Today
The Fed concludes their two day meeting today with the market expecting no increase in interest rates and another $10 billion tapered from their QE program. That would leave the Fed to continue purchasing treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities to the tune of $45 billion per month. After Janet Yellen’s rookie gaffe six weeks ago during the press conference, the chair is lucky that there won’t be another press conference today. Rather, the Fed will release a statement with […]
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Date: April 30, 2014
Major Indices Not Singing a Good Tune
2014 may be young, but so far, it’s exhibiting a very different character than 2013 with the rate of ascent completely flat lining and the high flying leaders hit very hard. In other words, the year has been digesting as I wrote about in the 2014 Fearless Forecast. Don’t get me wrong, just because I forecast this type of action doesn’t mean it has been an easy year to make money. It hasn’t. And I don’t think that changes just […]
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Date: April 25, 2014
“IF” – Something Ain’t Right
IF the employment data are improving… IF retail sales remain strong… IF the Fed is tapering because the economy is doing better… IF consumer sentiment is constructive… IF shipments at Port of LA see largest increase in 7 years… IF, IF, IF… Then why is the most economically sensitive bond’s yield falling out of bed like something dark is lurking?
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Date: April 21, 2014
Rally, Decline… Outcomes Abound
The stock market begins the post holiday week in neutral territory after the mid week bottom last week that I discussed on Yahoo Finance. The day before Good Friday is usually up less than 0.50% and that ended up coming true. The Monday after Good Friday, which is also the first day after April option expiration has a bit of a headwind to it so a strong advance by the bulls would be an especially positive sign. In all likelihood, […]
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Date: April 21, 2014
Bulls Step Up… Kinda Sorta
What a great day I had in New York with my friends at Yahoo Finance and Fox Business. In all, there should be five segments posted over the coming week. I began the day at Yahoo with Jeff Macke doing a piece called The Rally Has Begun and Here’s How to Play it. Click on the link and let me know what you think. This was the “calmest” of the three segments! Changing gears, here are some comments from recent […]
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Date: April 16, 2014
Media Day
I am heading to New York to first visit my friends at Yahoo Finance and their Breakout show with Jeff Macke. By week’s end, they should have 2-3 segments created on their website from our discussion. After that, it’s on to Fox Business to spend 30 minutes with Maria Bartiromo on her new show Opening Bell. I am scheduled to be on between 10am and 10:30am discussing a wide variety of topics. Although I hate the pre-dawn wake up call, […]
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Date: April 16, 2014
Stocks Remain in Pullback Mode
With the major indices down 4-8% I am once again getting questions whether the bull market has ended and a multi-year decline is unfolding. I don’t think so.The New York Stock Exchange Cumulative Advance/Decline line recently scored an all time high. When bull markets end, we typically see this indicator peak months, quarters or even years before the Dow and S&P 500. The same can be said of the high yield bond sector. Bear markets are usually associated with restrictive […]
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Date: April 14, 2014
Market stems sell-off but volatility is here to stay
Thanks for the quote Jeff Benjamin! Click here for article Market stems sell-off but volatility is here to stay Advisers agree investors need to stay calm and avoid knee-jerk selling By Jeff Benjamin Apr 8, 2014 @ 11:39 am (Updated 5:39 pm) EST Print E-mail Reprints 13Shares Bloomberg News The short and sudden streak of market volatility took a breather on Tuesday as traders took advantage of pullbacks by some of the higher-beta stocks. But financial advisers and market […]
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Date: April 14, 2014
U-G-L-Y Day on Thursday
The stock market had a very rough day on Thursday with all of the major indices breaking down below all short-term support levels for the chartists out there. There is no other way to characterize than UGLY. Keep in mind, however, that so far, all we have seen are 3-6% declines. It feels much worse because we saw two large down days over the past week, the likes of which we haven’t seen all year, including the January pullback. On […]
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Date: April 11, 2014
Bull market intact after “good flat” first quarter, but changes afoot
Thanks for the quote Jeff Benjamin. http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20140331/FREE/140339990# In a three-month stretch of extreme winter weather, unexpected geopolitical unrest, a Federal Reserve chairmanship transition, and a continuing sluggish economy, investors should be happy with a 1% first-quarter gain by the S&P 500. In essence, even without a lot of good news during the quarter, the financial markets proved resilient enough to keep general volatility low and fend off anything that looked like a threat to the bull market. “The first quarter […]
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Date: April 8, 2014
It’s All Negative
It was an interesting reading weekend. Everything I read was negative about the stock market, which is very unusual. Bulls became bears and bears were beating their chests. Not a single piece was positive. After last Friday’s market drubbing, the bears would normally come out, but so would the “buy the dip” bulls. And yesterday, it only got worse. When I saw newsletter writer Dennis Gartman say he got “scared” out of stocks, I began to believe a low was […]
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Date: April 8, 2014
CNBC’s Squawk Box Monday at 6:30 AM
I am excited to be with Joe, Becky and Andrew on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday the 31st at 6:30 AM. We will be discussing the markets, the wrong way Fed and the latest comments from Putin regarding the Ukraine. There should be a new issue of Street$marts out later on Monday. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. I am heading to my 6 year old’s very loud and chaotic birthday party. Too bad they don’t serve adult beverages with […]
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Date: March 30, 2014
The Story that Never Ends
Almost two weeks ago, I published this piece about PIMCO and Bill Gross. Since then, many news outlets continued reporting about the major problems inside PIMCO and the challenges Bill Gross faces. Thanks for the various quotes. PIMCO’s Got Bigger Problems than the Tabloid Drama We’ve Been Reading about Lately Some Still Wary on Gross’ Shakeup at PIMCO More Troubles for PIMCO in Wake of El-Erian Exit Advisers Ratchet up Scrutiny of PIMCO
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Date: March 28, 2014
Routine & Healthy Consolidation in Play
Last Friday, we saw the S&P 500 tick at all time highs for a few seconds. That’s anything but unexpected and certainly not newsworthy. What was “different this time” was that it was the only major index to score new highs before they all reversed sharply to the downside. That made calling for an overall market pullback fairly easy. Over the past few days, the high flying, momentum driven tech stocks, like Google Netflix and Amazon have come under strong […]
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Date: March 26, 2014
Dr. Copper May Be Terminally Ill, But…
What should be big news isn’t getting that much play and that’s the total collapse in copper prices, mostly due to China’s weakening economy. Copper has long been called Dr. Copper or the commodity with a PhD in economics because it was a good forecasting tool. Since late 2010, that all changed and it’s likely because of China’s influence on that market. Copper has completely collapsed on a short-term basis, semi-collapsed on an intermediate-term basis and is on the verge […]
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Date: March 23, 2014
Ben Bernanke Cringing
New Fed chair, Janet Yellen, presided over her first FOMC meeting this week with her first press conference yesterday afternoon. In short, as much as I supported her for the position, it’s crystal clear that she is no Ben Bernanke and has much to learn. On the positive side, she was very calm and took time to give thoughtful and detailed answers. I especially liked when she stated that the glide path to tighter monetary policy was going to be […]
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Date: March 20, 2014
Janet Yellen’s First Fed Statement Day
My how time flies! We just said goodbye to Ben Bernanke and hello to Janet Yellen and now it’s time for Fed day again. It is widely expected that the FOMC will taper another $10 billion to $55 billion per month in quantitative easing as it continues down the path to wrapping up QE by the end of the year. There is also an expectation that the Fed changes their interest rate scenario from quantitative to qualitative with Yellen giving […]
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Date: March 19, 2014
