The Bears Are Wrong
With the French elections going the way of the Euro bulls and corporate earnings continuing to exceed expectations and the high level details of Trump’s tax plan released, the stock market had itself a nice little run on Monday, Tuesday and half of Wednesday before getting a little tired. What a difference a week makes. The bulls made some solid ground with NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 seeing all-time highs and the S&P 400 only a whisker away. The Dow […]
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Date: April 27, 2017
Reality over Rhetoric. Bulls are Large and in Charge
I have long said and continue to reiterate on a regular basis that it’s not so much what the news is, but rather how the markets react. Clearly, the markets celebrated the French election results as the two main political parties were cast aside. Independent, Emmanuel Macron and nationalist, Marine LePen will face each other in a runoff on May 7. It doesn’t matter if you love or hate either candidate nor what they stand for, much like we saw […]
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Date: April 25, 2017
Sector Canaries Healthy with Some Small Wounds
Turning to the four key sectors I follow, we don’t have as strong a picture as the major indices, but they are still okay. Semis are first and they have been the strongest for some time, almost too strong, but that’s a topic for a different piece. While they have yet to eclipse their Dotcom bubble high from 2000, they continue to make new highs for this bull market. Banks are next and after a dizzying pace following the election […]
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Date: April 11, 2017
Sector Leadership Immunizes Stock Market from Bear Market
On Friday, I wrote about the Russell 2000 and what a potential breakout could mean for the stock market. At the open today, this index hit a fresh all-time high. Before breaking out the balloons and party streamers, let’s see if it can close at new highs and not give back too much over the coming days. With the Dow closing above 20,000 for five straight days I will have a new target very shortly that looks to be several […]
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Date: February 13, 2017
Bulls Win Big on Friday But Still Not Ready
Very nice day for the bulls on Friday as the monthly jobs report was really the Goldilocks scenario. Not too strong and not too weak. The U.S. saw decent growth with some mild revisions lower but almost no wage inflation which caused expectations for a March rate hike by the Fed to decline to roughly 20%. I would not hang my hat on the Fed staying put in March. There are many data points between now and then and I […]
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Date: February 6, 2017
Dow Breaking Out & Q4 GDP Miss the Last
After hitting yet another one of my upside targets, 20,000, the Dow has yet to pause. Five straight closes above 20,000 will open up new upside targets before the bull market ends. As you can see below, the Dow has been consolidating sideways since early December. That’s often referred to as a flat top or box. When prices finally exceed the flat top, they oftentimes see a spurt in the same direction. Although momentum is on the side of the […]
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Date: January 27, 2017
Window for Decline Almost Closed
For the past three weeks, our models have been defensive regarding the stock market after the first week’s post-election surge. I often say that when certain conditions are present, a “window of opportunity” opens for a stock market decline. The longer time passes without a decline, the more likely the window will close. Today, the window is starting to close and I imagine that by two weeks from today, it will be fully closed, modest decline or not. The Dow, […]
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Date: December 7, 2016
Stock Market Yawning at Recount
After a small gain on Wednesday, the seasonality bulls got their work done on Friday as the strong trend held to form. Without any weakness leading into that trend, it made it too tough for me to play it. However, I did tweet on Friday that taking a small short position at the close for seasonal weakness on Monday seemed like a better risk/reward play. Heading into the new week, we have to be on the lookout for the typical […]
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Date: November 28, 2016
Seasonals Favor Bulls into Weekend
Today and Friday are well known and widely followed seasonally strong days for stocks. That doesn’t mean we should just blindly buy and hope things work out. Stocks have been almost straight up since the election so you can certainly argue that a lot of fuel has been used up, including the last two days. As I mentioned on Monday, if the stock market was down on Tuesday I would have wanted to be long on Wednesday and Friday. That’s […]
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Date: November 23, 2016
Bulls Not Done
The bulls came back from the weekend in a good mood as stocks are rallying into lunch on Monday. While banks are taking a little breather, commodity-related sectors are leading with energy, metals & mining and materials all doing well along with some of the beaten down Hillary sectors, utilities, staples and telecom. High yield bonds are finally showing some oomph and emerging market countries are bouncing. The NYSE A/D Line is showing decent participation. I won’t rehash all the […]
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Date: November 21, 2016
