New Highs Abound But a Few Cracks Developing
Suffice to say that the bulls have basically stampeded any and all attempts to take stocks lower since mid-August. However, for most of that period, the market’s foundation was rock solid and bears were just fighting against strong momentum. Recently, that has changed. Because I have been traveling since late last week and a bit on the sick side, I haven’t spent the time to create the charts to support my point. The Dow, S&P 500, S&P 400 and NASDAQ […]
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Date: November 6, 2017
Q3 GDP Sees Another Resurgence & Energy Looking Sweet Again
On Friday, the government released a first look at Q3 GDP which I had been looking in the 3% range before the hurricanes hit. It wouldn’t have surprised me if that number was a quarter to half point lower. However, even with the hurricanes, the resilient U.S. economy still grew by 3%. All year, I have written about the economy accelerating to the upside in Q2 and Q3 with the election as the catalyst. Way too many people underestimated the […]
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Date: October 30, 2017
Pullback in Motion. Dow by Itself.
The Dow has now seen three straight days of negative behavior but the index remains a whisker from new highs. The big picture reveals some almost precedent setting behavior in the Dow as more stocks are closing lower than higher as the Dow was hitting all-time highs. That’s not your typical sign of strength. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 are a little weaker with the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 a little more so. The pullback I have been […]
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Date: October 26, 2017
Stocks Continue to Creep But Best Opp for Pullback is Now
It’s really the same old story as we begin the new week and the final full week of October. The intermediate and long-term continue to look strong as they have for days, weeks, months and quarters. Nothing has changed. The short-term is the time frame where it’s neutral at best. I have said all month that the bulls need a little rest, but they haven’t seemed to care. Today, as I look at the five major stock market indices, the […]
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Date: October 23, 2017
Bulls Running Like Pamplona
This is looking more and more the running of the bulls in Pamplona. They just stampede anyone and everyone in their way. After the two strongly positive seasonal trends ended after the first week of October, there was sufficient evidence that stocks were due for a pause to refresh or modest, single digit pullback. That’s what I was looking for. Nothing big. Nothing significant. Nothing really actionable. Just your garden variety reset. Stocks came out of the gate to the […]
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Date: October 20, 2017
Banks & Transports Still Tired. Modest Pullback Here.
Last Friday, I discussed what appeared to be tired behavior in the banks as they were selling off on good earnings news after rallying sharply into earnings season. Citigroup and JP Morgan were the examples. This morning, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley beat earnings expectations, yet reaction has been muted with the former opening sharply higher and then selling off while the latter is hanging tight. I would not be surprised to see Morgan Stanley buck the trend in the […]
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Date: October 17, 2017
Banks Selling the News. Transport Close By
Earnings season is now in full swing which means that every morning. pre-market, you will find a slew of companies reporting as well as offering guidance or forecasts about the future. That creates a much higher level of single stock and sometimes single sector overnight risk. Right now, the major banks are reporting, after experiencing a near vertical ascent into Q3 quarter end. The last time I wrote a specific article about the banking sector, it had just touched a […]
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Date: October 13, 2017
3 Reasons Stocks Will Peak Right Now
Good Monday Morning! Huge weekend if you are a sports fan although the decision making of my Yankees’ and Cowboys’ manager and coach likely just ended their seasons. At that level, the margin for blunders is razor thin and both Girardi (4 stupid decisions in 40 min) and Garrett (one giant brain freeze) cost their teams. While I have never been in their shoes, it’s the same thing I face each and every market day. Over the past 29 years, […]
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Date: October 9, 2017
Three Big Short-Term Changes Today
Looking at the economic news of the day, jobs created in September actually declined for the first time since 2011. On the surface, that would be shockingly disappointing and brings in calls for recession. However, all of the drop from the expected 100,000 created will be attributed to the hurricanes. The unemployment rate surprisingly fell to 4.2% from the expected 4.4%. Until the economies in Texas and Florida get back to somewhat normal behavior, job numbers are going to be […]
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Date: October 6, 2017
Beware of October in Years Ending in “7”
While I often write about seasonality, in the grand scheme of things, it’s really only a slight head or tailwind. For those who do not know what seasonality is, it is using a period of time in history to see what trends have occurred the majority of the time. For instance, Sell in May and Go Away, is a seasonal trend for stocks to be weaker from May through October and stronger the rest of the year. The day before […]
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Date: October 2, 2017
