Stocks Were Looking for an Excuse to Pull Back
While stocks had another nice run last week, they didn’t exactly close Friday with much strength. That’s not surprising given how most of the major stock market indices were pushing up against all-time highs. So many times, we will a see security come back up and say hello to a previous important peak, only to watch it pause or mildly pullback first. The weekend news about Iran or Yemen conducting drone attacks on Saudi refining facilities was just what the […]
Read More
Date: September 16, 2019
Bears Continue to Laugh & Scoff and Be Embarrassingly Wrong
When listening to the pundits and reading my Twitter feed over the past month or so, it has been fairly negative which it has basically been for the majority of the bull market with few key exceptions like January 2018. Whenever I prepare for a media segment, I usually start by saying that no one has been more bullish than I have on balance for the entire bull market. Most of my quantitative, upside price targets for the Dow were […]
Read More
Date: September 13, 2019
Bears Getting Impaled
The bulls have been relentless of late, which should certainly not surprise anyone who reads this blog. I have been emphatically bullish, especially on semis and defensives, and looking for Dow 28,000. I can’t find many or really any others who have been as uniquely bullish as I have been. I don’t count anyone who believes that you should always be positive on the stock market because it will reward you over the very long-term. That’s a cop out. But […]
Read More
Date: September 12, 2019
The Myth of September’s Gloom
As the calendar turned to September, the media was in their usual tizzy because historically, the month has the worst performance of any during the year. The problem with making very general statements is that context is ignored. It wasn’t long ago when all the headlines were about how strong the month of December was and everyone was all bulled up because stocks had corrected 10% in October and November. Then stocks collapsed in December like hadn’t been seen since […]
Read More
Date: September 9, 2019
Bulls Look to Maul Bears as Semis Remain Strong
At the end of last week I wrote about the bulls’ inability to sustain a breakout above the recent range as prices briefly popped above the highs but reversed to close lower. Given my continued bullish outlook, I wasn’t worried and I am still not concerned. This morning, pre-market indications look for the bulls to attempt a full-fledged assault higher and break through the month long trading range as you can see below using the S&P 500 futures. For more […]
Read More
Date: September 5, 2019
Bulls Poke Above Range Without Follow Through
The final day of the week and the month and I think all those investors supposedly in The Hamptons can get back to lounging on the beach or partaking in the nightlife. Not I. It’s been a month full of physical therapy, acupuncture and lots of walking and throwing with the kids when I wasn’t in the office. And to the disappointment of many, the bull market didn’t end in August and the economy didn’t recess. The trading range continued […]
Read More
Date: August 30, 2019
Where’s the Worry About Inverted Yield Curve and 10 Year Plunge?
While the past few days did nothing to clear up the four-week trading range, I still give the nod to the bulls as I have been saying for weeks. That’s regardless of whether stocks first poke through the bottom of the range or not. I do find it funny that yields on the 10 year bond hit fresh lows on Wednesday and stocks did not collapse as some media analysts have been selling as a tried and truism lately. One […]
Read More
Date: August 29, 2019
I Didn’t See That Coming!
Last Friday, I wrote about not expecting much or really anything new from Jay Powell when he spoke at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole. While I was spot on about that, I absolutely did not see the tweetstorm from the President, basically threatening economic martial law, let alone questioning if his appointed Fed Chair was an “enemy”. A bit of a head scratcher. All of that led to the markets becoming unglued the rest of the day, except […]
Read More
Date: August 26, 2019
Powell’s Much Ado About Nothing While High Beta Percolates
Markets were on pause mode on Thursday as everyone awaited Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech from Jackson Hole on Friday morning. Most of the stories I have read and media interviews I have seen had a very binary outcome from Powell’s speech. It was “all or none”. I don’t agree. I think he is going to straddle the line as much as possible and say very little in the way of new or market moving information.The key will be not […]
Read More
Date: August 23, 2019
Bulls Look to Trap Bears – Semis the Key
The bulls had the chance. They could have really squeezed the bears. But they weren’t totally ready just yet. Tuesday’s afternoon selloff looked on the ugly side, but in reality it just kept the stock market in the same range it has been in all month. I want to see a daily close in the Dow above 26,500, S&P 500 above 2945 and NASDAQ 100 above 7800 to confirm the bull are readying a run to the old highs. These […]
Read More
Date: August 21, 2019
