Relentless Selling Wave Continues
It seems like every time I sit down to start a new post over the past few weeks, I am looking at the same data, indicators and price behavior. Stocks closed the day before lower and look like they have a chance to bounce but end up closing lower yet again. I thought when I started writing about relentless selling, it would end sooner than later. And here we are again; stocks fell hard on Thursday with the glimmer of […]
Read More
Date: December 21, 2018
Ugliness for the Bulls Rolls On. May Need More Panic
Most of the past few weeks when I sat down to start a new post I thought, “well, yesterday wasn’t very nice for the bulls”. Today, as I sit on the train to New York, I am thinking that Friday and Monday were downright ugly for the bulls. The bad Friday, bad Monday combination, regardless of whether this remains a bull market or not is something typically seen near lows which is where I think the market is. Similar to […]
Read More
Date: December 18, 2018
Is It a Bear Market???
In rare fashion, the bears are certainly in charge this quarter, but especially this month. Historically, it’s very difficult to see stocks under constant pressure during Q4, let alone December. The usual catalysts for decline are typically seasonally absent. While that doesn’t mean that stocks can’t decline this late in the year, a decline of the magnitude we are currently experiencing is very rare. 2002 saw a 6% decline in December and 1968 and 1957 had 4% declines, but that’s […]
Read More
Date: December 17, 2018
Ugly & Ugly
On Monday, I wrote about the fireworks I saw coming at the open and not to get sucked into the media’s and pundits’ hysteria. Smart money would be selling not buying.Well, frankly, I wish I did some selling into that bull trap as Tuesday was downright ugly and this morning is looking even uglier to begin the day. I definitely did not see a decline of this magnitude coming. As I always say with outsized opens, where stocks close matters […]
Read More
Date: December 6, 2018
Fireworks at the Open
No one was surprised that positive news came out of Trump’s meeting with Jinping over the weekend. That’s been his m.o. all along. And stocks are set to react in a big way, at least at the open, with the Dow looking up 400-500 points. After last week’s huge surge this just continues the dominance by the bulls as I have been writing about. For the Dow, the next big hurdle to clear is closing above 26,300 which was the […]
Read More
Date: December 3, 2018
Whining & Crying Over Interest Rates
After Wednesday’s huge surge, stocks were quietly digesting on Thursday, somewhat as you would expect. With the initial blastoff from the bottom over which typically lifts all ships, especially those that were hit the hardest, it’s now time to start stalking emerging leadership. I am going to reserve judgement at this point since, frankly, I do not have strong conviction other than the transports are one sector acting very well. I want to see what the defensive groups do over […]
Read More
Date: November 30, 2018
Bulls Drive Ahead But More Stocks Down
The bulls did a nice job on Monday and Tuesday after laying an egg during Thanksgiving week. I don’t think Wednesday will be quite as easy during the afternoon. While the major stock market indices scored gains on Tuesday, there were almost 700 more stocks going down than up. That’s not exactly the pillar of strength which leads to immediate gains. Frankly, it’s a little disappointing. The vast majority of our work turned positive at the end of last week […]
Read More
Date: November 28, 2018
The Makings of the Bottom
Coming back from being out of the office for over a week is never easy although I received a few emails doubting I was actually away since I sent so many updates last week. It’s not that hard when your kids like to sleep in and you don’t. I got a lot done before any of them, including my wife, starting stirring in the morning. Stocks came back from the Thanksgiving feast with the bulls firmly in charge early on. […]
Read More
Date: November 26, 2018
What Happened to the “Easy” Week?!?!
I hope you had a meaningful and terrific Thanksgiving! I cannot believe the amount of food I consumed although without the traditional bottles of wine, I guess there was a lot more room. Having been out of town since last Thursday, I am looking forward to getting home today, seeing my pets and sleeping in my own bed. This week was supposed to see a mild drift higher, especially after Monday. You know, it was one of those “easy” weeks […]
Read More
Date: November 23, 2018
Bears Maul Seasonal Tailwinds
Two weeks ago in Battle Lines Drawn, I showed four horizontal blue lines which I thought would dictate market behavior for a while. There wasn’t anything secret or proprietary about them, just four price areas that seemed to garnering a lot of attention. When the masses focus on certain prices, the market will usually do its best to exceed them and make the most people look like fools. In this case, soon after stocks exceeded the closest blue line, they […]
Read More
Date: November 21, 2018
