No Surprises
There have no surprises this week, at least not for my readers. The Fed announced its overdue plan to reduce asset purchases. Check. The Russell 2000 finally scored a new all-time high. Check. The Dow Industrials hit my upside target of 36,000. Check. The other major stock market indices continued to make new highs. Check. The rising tide has lifted most ships. Check. The rally since late September has been powerful and relentless. Starting on September 20 and ever since, […]
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Date: November 4, 2021
Stocks Ain’t Done – Lots of Clowns Pretending to Know – Fed to FINALLY Taper
Let me start off by sharing a fun, engaging and informative interview I did with the good folks at Investors Hub. The Federal Reserve is currently meeting and we are finally going to hear about the long-awaited, surprise to no one, way overdue plan to taper asset purchases. This should have started over a year ago when inflation was in its infancy. Of course, my readers began hearing about inflation in the summer of 2020 as the train was leaving […]
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Date: November 2, 2021
Afternoon Swoon – Bears Lining Up
Greetings again from 32,000 feet! After a super turbulent flight down, I landed and my license was gone. Yes, somehow between Hartford and Fort Lauderdale it disappeared. And even though I had a picture copy, they would not let me rent a car. 40 minute long story short where I started making all these alternative plans and had my wife on the phone calling Hartford TSA while I called JetBlue, I found my license in my sneaker, the one on […]
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Date: October 28, 2021
New Highs Continue as Forecast – Always a Concern
Greetings from 34,000 feet! 17 years ago, I swore I would never take a red eye flight from CA and I haven’t since. Taking a 6am is equally unappealing. Arriving at the airport at 5am, I found a literal sea of people and chaos. No matter which line you chose they were all backed up the length of the terminal and out the door. 50 minutes to get through security using TSA Pre-Check is unacceptable and insane. While in line, […]
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Date: October 25, 2021
New Highs, New Highs, New Highs BUT Junk Not Along for the Ride
The Dow Industrials sit at all-time highs. The S&P 500 has rallied for 7 straight days and is at all-time highs. The S&P 400 just hit all-time highs. It has been a fun run when most did not expect it. Wait until the Russell 2000 small caps get their tail in gear to the upside. That’s coming. If I had to poke holes in my bullish thesis I would talk about the chart below which is a popular high yield […]
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Date: October 22, 2021
Bulls Charging, BUT…
It has been a nice and fun run for the bulls since the middle of last week. The major stock market indices have all rallied 3-4%. It’s good that they are in sync. However, (Geez Paul, can’t you just leave it at that?) the daily number of stocks going up versus going down has been a bit of a stinker for the past four days. I would have liked to see very broad participation, especially in a rally so young. […]
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Date: October 20, 2021
***Q3 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. I would rather have been wrong on my forecast and perfectly right on our models. How’s that for a sentence to begin my Q3 report? Over the past few months, I have concluded every single client meeting with my thoughts that gains in […]
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Date: October 19, 2021
When The Ducks Quack, Feed Them
My oh my. What a difference a few days makes. We went from hearing all about 1970s style inflation, supply chain woes and challenged Q3 earnings to partying like it’s 1999, all in one week. Well, good luck to those schizophrenic investors. As my friend and Twitter queen, Helene Meisler likes to say, “nothing like price to change sentiment”. As you know, I have been firmly positive, whether or not the major stock market indices would see one more decline […]
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Date: October 18, 2021
Bulls Roar Back, Who Knew? New Highs On Track for Q4
As sentiment in the media and pundit land was negative earlier this week, stocks roared back to life on Thursday. Of course, the pundits fell over themselves telling everyone how they bought the bottom on Wednesday and became super bulls. Numbers do not lie. That’s why managing money is different from writing a newsletter, being a pundit or yelling BUY BUY BUY to unsuspecting lemmings. Thursday was a good day for the markets, at least price-wise. The major stock market […]
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Date: October 15, 2021
All-Time Highs Still The Call – One More Decline or Not
With back to back deep dish pizza dinners at Lou Malnati’s and Giordano’s, I am back from Chicago after attending what was the best NAAIM Outlook conference I can ever recall. Simply amazing speakers and highly beneficial networking opps. A number of folks who usually come really missed out on this one. First, I want to correct a statement I made yesterday in the energy video. I said something to the effect that regardless of whether the market sees one […]
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Date: October 13, 2021
