2009 Still Giving Us Clues as Pullback Continues
After last Thursday’s drubbing, the bull did what they have done every time they have been threatened since the new bull market began in March. They rallied the stock market. On Friday, we saw a huge up opening that could not hold. Bears came in and sold the market into negative territory, only to see the bulls rally it back after lunch. This is classic sign of volatility and that there is a fierce fight going on. There are […]
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Date: June 15, 2020
Heritage Capital Launches New Website
Heritage Capital is pleased to announce the launch of our new and improved website! The new site went live on June 10. The fresh look and feel make it easier to find information, read about timely and important topics and contact us when you have a question. If you haven’t had a chance to check it out yet, please do. The easy-to-access navigation gives a clearer message of who we are, what it’s like to work with us and how […]
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Date: June 15, 2020
Market Got Its Excuse to Sell Off
Sorry for the delayed post and missing yesterday. We are migrating to a new host and new website and I got a little sidetracked. I am excited for our new website, www.investfortomorrow.com as well as a much better host. Truth is, if the new company, Digital Ocean, can even fog a mirror, they will be better than where we were for the past decade plus. I can’t even count how many times my email would go down or they would […]
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Date: June 11, 2020
Comparing This Bull Market Launch to 2009
Another new week begins, another pre-market rally in the stock market. I have to continue to say that the strength of the move is beyond unbelievable. I thought it was “unprecedented” until I looked deeper. When the trading range broke last month and I was expecting a possible fakeout, even if I was wrong, I didn’t think stocks would power ahead unabated like this. While people talk about this being “unprecedented”, that’s simply not true. When new bull markets launch, […]
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Date: June 8, 2020
WOW!
That was not supposed to be the headline for this morning. After yesterday I figured the employment numbers would be grim, but stocks would rally again because let’s face it; stocks have rallied on all bad news and pretty much all news. When the May employment report was released at 8:30am this morning, I thought it was a typo. I am sitting there watching it with an incredulous look on my face saying that it had to be wrong. How […]
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Date: June 5, 2020
Trading Range Ends But Bears Fail to Seize Control
Last week I updated my multi-month thesis that the stock market was in a trading range and to be on the lookout for a fake move whichever end was broken first. You can see that depicted in the chart below as stocks broke above the horizontal, blue line. So many times in history, the more obvious a pattern is in the markets and the more widely followed, the more likely the market is to confound the majority. It happens often, but for […]
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Date: June 3, 2020
Sentiment Percolating
Starting in the middle of November 2019, stock market sentiment went from bullish to giddy and then greedy before all was said and done. It had done that before in early 2017, 2018, mid-2011 and clearly during the Dotcom Bubble in 1999 and 2000. Sentiment alone is not a reason for markets to turn although we usually see that ingredient at extremes. Sentiment is also not a perfect timing tool. Remember the old adage that markets can stay irrational longer […]
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Date: June 1, 2020
Initial Jobless Claims – A Look Since March
Thursday is upon us and weekly jobless claims will be reported at 8:30am. The stock market has met every horrific report with intense buying. Many forget that the single worst week has been right around the market bottom on March 23. Since then, weekly new claims have plummeted, but I guess that between PPP and businesses staying open, there are only so many people who could additionally file. The real number is continuing claims which looks like it’s plateauing because […]
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Date: May 28, 2020
More Good News as the Trading Range Breaks Higher
As I mentioned in Friday’ post, not much happened last week after Monday’s sharply higher open. Stocks essentially treaded water and bullishly digested the gains. You could also say that has been the case since mid-April in the major indices with the exception of the NASDAQ 100 which is in a world of its own. Below is the Dow Industrials and you can see the trading range I have been discussing bound by the two horizontal blue lines. A few comments […]
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Date: May 26, 2020
Trading Range Continues. Bonds Thumped. Bulls to Win Today.
As I have been writing about, until proven otherwise which would mean I am wrong, the major stock indices with the exception of the NASDAQ 100 hit a ceiling last week and appear to be in a trading range bound by Dow 25,000 and roughly 22,000. On the S&P 500 that amounts to 2930 and 2630. The NASDAQ 100 is trading like it’s 1999 and all is very well in the world. The longer the range continues, the more significant […]
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Date: May 7, 2020
