Might the Bears Growl a Little?
It’s strange waking up to see the NASDAQ 100 futures down 100+ points. I quipped on Twitter the other day that the new norm was seeing them up 100+ every morning. Let’s keep this all in context. The index is up 4% over the past 5 days and 14% over the past month. It’s up 40% over the past 6 months. It’s been one helluva run! The Fab Five Plus stocks which make up a good portion of the index […]
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Date: September 3, 2020
Bulls Refuse to Give Up Ground
As you know, I have written many pieces lately about my concerns around the NASDAQ 100 and Fab Five plus a few stocks. Between “everyone” loving those few stocks and the indices hitting new highs with more stocks declining than advancing and overall sentiment on the giddy side, there has been no shortage of cracks in the market’s foundation. Yet what has happened? The bulls have run right over the bears each and every time. The NASDAQ hasn’t had even […]
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Date: August 31, 2020
2009 Argues for Much Higher NASDAQ 100
As I tweeted the other day, the powers that be at Dow Jones have completely turned the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average into a manipulated farce. They threw out three low priced stocks and added three high priced stocks. I speculate that this was all about Apple’s 4:1 stock split. Remember that the Dow is a price weighted index. That means that every 1 point move in a Dow stock now equals roughly 7 Dow points. When Apple was $500, […]
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Date: August 26, 2020
Everything is Hunky Dory – Apple a Selling Opp
Market action is definitely feeling like 1999/early 2000 when the hot NASDAQ stocks were melting higher right out of the gate every morning. More importantly, there were so many days with horrid market internals and prices just kept going higher. Last Friday may have been the most egregious since the bull market began in March. On the NYSE there was almost two stocks declining for every one stock rallying. That behavior usually occurs on a one percent down day. Instead, […]
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Date: August 24, 2020
Price Action Like the Dotcom Era
A quick update as we have seen so much more of the same this week, but even more exaggerated. The NASDAQ 100 and the Fab Five plus Nvidia have powered ahead without taking the vast majority of stocks with them. The price action looks like late 1999 and early 2000 with the index scoring new high after new high with more stocks down than up and the amount of shares trading in stocks going down swamping those in stocks going […]
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Date: August 21, 2020
Thank You Warren Buffett
It’s hard to argue that the dog days of summer are here. Like so many other expressions (sick as a dog), I had no idea where they came from until Google and Wikipedia were invented. Now I feel so informed. The major stock market indices have really gone to sleep over the past week. It’s been so quiet. Thankfully, Warren Buffett provided a little excitement after the close on Friday when he disclosed a purchase in Barrick Gold, an industry […]
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Date: August 17, 2020
Common Questions About a SEP IRA
Your standard IRAs and 401(k)s hog a lot of the attention when it comes to defined contribution retirement plans. While these can be terrific vehicles for creating a long-term nest egg, we don’t want to discount another effective option, the SEP IRA. At Heritage Capital, we’re often asked about the SEP IRA, which can be a low-cost alternative to other employee retirement plans. Can I convert a SEP IRA to a Roth IRA? Can I roll a SEP IRA into […]
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Date: August 17, 2020
More Warning Signs – More the Bulls Just Run Over Them
I use the high yield bond market in a number of ways at the firm. It’s an asset class that’s used in five of our models as well as a vital canary in the coal mine. This week, Ball Corp., issued a 10 year high yield bond with a coupon (yield) of just 2.875%. That’s under 3% for a junk bond and bordering on insane! If you want to gauge the appetite for risk and yield, look no further. Now, […]
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Date: August 14, 2020
Is Big Tech Cooked? Nifty Fifty May Guide Fab Five
It’s certainly no secret that I have been negative on big tech and concerned that the epic run relative to the rest of the stock market exceeded even the Dotcom Bubble levels. This has been the case for the past month. The only thing that has changed lately is that the broader stock market, which peaked on June 8th, has stepped up to lead. That was one of the outcomes I have mentioned. Dow Industrials, S&P 400, Russell 2000, banks, […]
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Date: August 12, 2020
***End of Q2 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very brief quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to delete now. First off, I hope you are continuing to stay healthy and sane. I am going to do something different to open this report. Why not? It’s 2020 after all. I want to answer the single most asked question by an exponential factor from clients, prospects and the media. Why have […]
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Date: August 10, 2020
