Fed Trend Shines But I Have Concerns
The worst kept secret was that the Fed was going to speed up its plan to taper asset purchases and that was announced on Wednesday. Jay Powell conducted the perfect press conference for the stock market and the bulls went home with huge smiles on their faces. I tweeted a few times and posted here that the FOMC trend was as strong as it ever gets for buying -.50% weakness in the morning and selling at the close. That tidy […]
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Date: December 16, 2021
Fed Announcement Day – Bulls On Their Heels
The FOMC concludes their two-day meeting today where they are expected to announce a faster taper plan with more interest rate hikes in 2022. This is something that should have been started 15 months ago when the inflation genie was fully out of the bottle. Jay Powell & Company are now fighting a different and tougher fight that will likely lead to an economic slowdown during the second half of 2022. My readers are certainly not surprised. After all, I […]
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Date: December 15, 2021
Inflation Peaking – Bulls Need to Step Up This Week
Last Friday the government released the Consumer Price Index which showed the highest inflation since 1981, 6.8%. I don’t think anyone in the U.S. would deny that inflation has been strong and rising for more than a year. Heck, it has been a theme of mine since the summer of 2020. As usual, the Fed has been behind the curve, insisting that it was “transitory”, whatever that really means. Powell & Company assured the country that it was nothing to […]
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Date: December 14, 2021
Bulls Best Not Fail Here
After two strong days for the bulls, the stock market took a breather on Wednesday and Thursday with the now important Consumer Price Index scheduled to be released on Friday morning. It should be a market mover and I am most keen on seeing reaction from long-term treasuries. Although it is a powerfully bullish time of year and the bulls certainly proved their mettle off of the recent lows, it would be significantly bearish for stocks to fail right here […]
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Date: December 10, 2021
Bulls Dominate
Well, well, well, the bulls certainly made some noise over the first two days of the week. I imagine the bears were not too concerned after Monday’s big bounce, but Tuesday likely induced the pain trade and forced many to reign in their bearishness. And if you recall from Monday’s post, that was precisely when there was a surge in bearish sentiment from the AAII survey. In the NASDAQ 100, a chart I posted the other day, price was right […]
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Date: December 8, 2021
Bears Surge – Stocks Still Looking For a Low
On Friday, yet again, the employment report laid a big egg as the economy created 210,000 new jobs versus the 600,000 that was expected. That is not good folks. However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, even though the labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%. Those are both good signs. Yep, it’s as clear as mud. My thesis has been that November, December and into Q1 2022 would see a sharp increase in economic activity and strong jobs numbers. […]
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Date: December 6, 2021
Stocks Bounced and Declined – What Now? Omicron Not to Blame
Let me start out by reiterating what I have been offering for the past 5 weeks. Inflation is in the process of peaking. In late October with the good folks at Yahoo Finance, I was very firm about looking for inflation to peak between November and March. Few have joined my party which is A-Okay with me. It won’t even make my top 10 list of concerns for 2022. And with that, supply chain issues are no more by the […]
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Date: December 3, 2021
Bounce Coming, Bottom Not In & Inflation Peaking
On Monday as stocks looked to surge and recoup some of what was lost on Friday, I offered that the bounce would likely be underwhelming and I thought new lows would ensue at some point over the coming week or two. I didn’t think that would happen the very next day, but the market gods don’t always deliver in the manner I expect. Regarding Tuesday, it was an ugly day with almost 90% of the volume trading on the down […]
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Date: December 1, 2021
Friday’s Drubbing – Silver Linings & Where Stocks May Bottom
Following up from yesterday’s video, the stock market seeks to bounce back from Friday’s holiday-shortened, 2% drubbing. Yes, no matter how the bears slice it, the decline remains only 2% and a stone’s throw from all-time highs. The bears think this is the beginning of the end for the bull market and a collapse lies in wait for 2022. The bulls find the decline “curious” and interestingly timed along with the utter collapse in oil. One thing I have very […]
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Date: November 29, 2021
The One Mistake Jack Made that Ruined his Retirement
They say we learn from our mistakes, but when it comes to retirement, the lesson may come too late to be of any value! With that in mind, here’s an opportunity to learn from someone else’s – a cautionary tale about the importance of a second opinion and switching financial advisors. An investor, who I’ll call “Jack,” was a mid-level manager at a large Fortune 500 company. He liked his company but admitted that it didn’t offer much advice on […]
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Date: November 29, 2021
Two Hole-In-Ones – In One Week
Today and Friday are super strong days on a seasonal basis for stocks. That’s how it is every year around Thanksgiving although certain setups make the days stronger or weaker. With pre-market futures indicating a moderately lower open, we will see if the bulls borrowed some positivity on Tuesday. I do not sense a big down day regardless. There is certainly enough bearishness around and it seems to be growing. The other day I mentioned the calls for global collapse. […]
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Date: November 24, 2021
A 30-50% Collapse?
Greetings from the left coast where I am in the process of traveling home from a mystical and magical week at Pebble Beach with friends. Having not been there for 31 years, I was at a loss for words to describe how amazing it felt to be back at the greatest golf resort on earth, not to mention playing golf with and socializing with a good number of PGA and LPGA pros. If only my golf game cooperated! Looking back […]
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Date: November 22, 2021
Inflation Building to a Peak – Stocks Euphoric
Hopefully, you have seen my thesis that inflation is in the process of peaking. Notice, I didn’t say it peaked. The process has begun. That’s high conviction and what I going with until proven otherwise. If I am correct we will see this unfold in various sectors and asset classes, like commodities, industrials, materials, energy and bonds. For the past week I have not had strong conviction that the mild, barely discernible pullback was over and I still don’t. Sentiment […]
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Date: November 17, 2021
Inflation Peaking – Sentiment Greedy, Giddy & Euphoric
The bulls enjoyed a nice bounce back on Friday from the minuscule pullback last week. While it’s not my highest conviction play it certainly looks like there should a bit more downside to come, and preferably before the holiday. As I mentioned last week, sentiment is getting to the point where is about as euphoric, greedy and giddy as it ever gets, rivaling several spots in the post-2008 bull market as well as the Dotcom era. But before you assume […]
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Date: November 15, 2021
Inflation Peaking
Markets have been super quiet over the past few days. We have seen the pause and mild pullback I wrote about, but there should be more to it. Sentiment is back in the greedy, euphoric stage, but let’s remember that frothiness usually needs some structural damage before we see real weakness. Economic and earnings data continue to support my theme that the economy is re-accelerating strongly. Inflation data is the hottest in 31 years which also is right in line […]
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Date: November 12, 2021
Pullback Coming But Bears Won’t Be Happy
Let’s talk pre-Thanksgiving turkey. From October 12 through November 8, the S&P 500 has basically gone straight up with one noticeable down day on October 27. That’s only one real down day in 18. That would be called a powerful and momentum driven market. Momentum dies hard. Strength begets strength. Eventually, the bulls just get exhausted and stocks pull back because there’s no buying power available. That’s the likely scenario here. Stocks will just mildly pull back with little notice. […]
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Date: November 10, 2021
Goldilocks Is in the House – No Concerns Anywhere
Listening to the media on Friday, you would think that the powerful employment report caused a major surge in stock prices. It was literally a parade of bulls with many being asked if things could ever get better. We now have the “perfect Goldilocks environment for stocks”. Oh boy. Uh oh. 20 months ago with the Dow Industrials at 18,000 almost no one wanted to invest. As stocks rallied and rallied and rallied, more and more investors hopped on board […]
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Date: November 8, 2021
The Headline Jane Believed and How It Affected Her Financial Future
In my experience as a financial advisor for more than 30 years, I’ve learned that many investors, even confident, successful, high net worth investors, learn by example, like we do in the rest of our lives. Unfortunately, many times, this example is a mistake they make themselves. With this in mind, I’d like to tell you about “Jane,” a well-educated woman I met before the pandemic who agreed to let me share her story. Some mistakes can be quite costly, […]
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Date: November 8, 2021
Even I was Surprised
It’s jobs Friday and the report did not disappoint. As you already know from this Yahoo segment on October 28, my high conviction thesis has been that U.S. economic growth re-accelerates strongly in Q4 and Q1. I hadn’t seen anyone else with this call in October. Additionally, earnings also surprise to the upside for Q4. In turn, this would also keep the bull market running powerfully into 2022 with the rising tide lifting most boats. I know I have been […]
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Date: November 5, 2021
No Surprises
There have no surprises this week, at least not for my readers. The Fed announced its overdue plan to reduce asset purchases. Check. The Russell 2000 finally scored a new all-time high. Check. The Dow Industrials hit my upside target of 36,000. Check. The other major stock market indices continued to make new highs. Check. The rising tide has lifted most ships. Check. The rally since late September has been powerful and relentless. Starting on September 20 and ever since, […]
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Date: November 4, 2021
