An Opportunity for the Bears
Since mid-November, I have often discussed sentiment in the stock market. Plainly put, investors have been very confident to the point of being greedy and giddy to an historic extreme. We last saw that behavior in January 2018 which led to a 13% stock market decline to resolve the condition. Of course, there were other factors that led to that decline, like some cracks in the market’s foundation, something I am not seeing today. When I have a little more […]
Read More
Date: January 13, 2020
Early January Indicator Calls for More Upside While Oil & Gold Hit Peaks
With the much ballyhooed Santa Claus Rally out of the way which I really reduced to meaningless in the grand scheme of things, the media has turned its attention to the Early January Indicator (EJI). As Yale Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac fame discovered, as goes the first five days of January, so goes the rest of the year. Since 1990 when the EJI is positive, stocks end the year higher 78% of the time versus 74% for any random […]
Read More
Date: January 9, 2020
Santa Called. Bulls Excited on Wall. Could There be a Fall?
Although it wasn’t much for the bulls to celebrate, Santa Claus did call to Broad & Wall. The last five days of 2019 plus the first two days of 2020 finished slightly in the green for the &P 500 by 0.34%. The media would have you believe that this 7 day trading period now holds untold fortunes for stock investors versus any old random year. That’s simply not the case, even when giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt […]
Read More
Date: January 6, 2020
A Little Taste for the Bears – Santa Still in Play
Stocks roared out of the gate to begin 2020 and it certainly felt like the masses were buying hand over fist. However, let’s remember that this is a holiday-shortened week and I don’t think everyone is back to their normal schedules. With stocks closing at their highs for the day, it’s very unlikely that any peak of importance was seen. Several times last week I mentioned my last 5 and Santa Claus Rally research. The last 5 was reduced to […]
Read More
Date: January 3, 2020
My New Year’s Message
With the end of 2019 signaling not only year-end but also the conclusion of a decade, I am reminded of something my grandmother said to me every year sine I was 7. Besides letting me know not to waste my younger, more active years, she always told me that the older you get, the faster time goes by. It took me a long time to really understand and grasp that. I remember lying on the floor in the kitchen growing […]
Read More
Date: January 2, 2020
3224 the Key Number for Santa
Friday’s action in the stock market wasn’t the victory the bulls were claiming. After another higher opening, the bears made a tiny stand and managed to fend off higher prices for a few hours. That’s about all you can say besides there were more stocks declining than advancing. I know; I am grasping at straws into year-end. However, make no mistake about the historic sentiment readings we are currently seeing now. This is the polar opposite of what we saw […]
Read More
Date: December 30, 2019
All Looks Terrific But Be Careful
I hope everyone had a great Christmas, Hanukah, Kwanzaa and Boxing Day! As I wrote about the other day, the Santa Claus Rally and last five days of the year are not the absolute layup the pundits keep predicting. In strong years, the last five days trade is not even a coin flip, however, Santa still comes calling about 70% of the time. That puts added bullish weight on the first two days of 2020 if the last five of […]
Read More
Date: December 27, 2019
The Masses are Wrong! The Truth About Santa and the Last 5 Days of 2019
Let me begin by wishing all those who celebrate a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukah! Historically, the last two weeks of December is one of the most favorable times of the year and that lasts through early January. The traditional Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is scheduled to begin on Christmas Eve and last until the close on January 3rd. In other words, the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year. Remember the old […]
Read More
Date: December 23, 2019
Stocks CREEP Higher – Waiting on Santa
Let’s start this article with the big picture. The bull market is alive and reasonably well and will live on into 2020. Next year will likely present some challenges, but we will cross that bridge when I start to work on my 2020 Fearless Forecast. One thing is for absolute sure in my opinion; there will be fireworks in 2020! For roughly a month, mostly on the blog, I had been discussing a stock market that was a little ahead […]
Read More
Date: December 22, 2019
2019 A LOT Different from 2018 – Fedex Vomits on Itself
Stocks have really quieted down of late, but the bulls have been relentless. Each and every day seems like a slow drift higher. What has historically been a very reliable soft patch into mid-December is not arriving in 2019 or if I wanted to claim victory like those who can never be wrong, I would just say the two-day decline early in the month was it. That’s not exactly what I was looking for, but you always have to roll […]
Read More
Date: December 18, 2019
Bulls Powering Through Short-Term Fatigue
With the Fed, UK elections, tariff deadline and impeachment seemingly all out of the way, stocks continue to forge ahead, even in the face of some short-term fatigue. That’s obviously bullish in and of itself. As I mentioned last week, it is very tough to see any kind of measurable selling this late in such a strong year. Something would really have to come out of left field. I have spent a good deal of time on small caps of […]
Read More
Date: December 16, 2019
Small Cap Value FINALLY Breaks Out – Stocks Tired
Going in to this week, the markets had four big issue to deal with. The Fed, UK election, Dec 15 tariffs and impeachment. I really thought one of the first three would have caused one of those 1-3 day shakeouts into the usual mid-December low this or next week. That certainly hasn’t been the case and as I have said all along, I think impeachment is a just a media distraction and nothing to take seriously for the economy nor […]
Read More
Date: December 13, 2019
Fed to Stand Pat – Still Operating on Powell’s Dramatic Change
What to Expect Today The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to do absolutely nothing today at 2:00pm regarding interest rates. The market is expecting nothing and nothing it will get. Any other action would be a total and complete shocker. In fact, at this point, the market isn’t pricing in any FOMC action until the very end of 2020 where a rate cut is expected. Keep in mind that market expectations even a quarter out don’t amount to […]
Read More
Date: December 11, 2019
Small Stocks Continue to Look Interesting
For the past few weeks, I have been mentioning the action the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks. Along with the S&P 400 index of mid cap stocks, this group has been lagging the returns of the more popular Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. I continue to believe the Russell’s fortunes are changing, if only for a short period of time. Below is a chart I have shown a few times before. It’s the Russell 2000 with the […]
Read More
Date: December 9, 2019
Was That All?
On Wednesday, I wrote that stocks were supposed to bounce and not to be surprised if they regained all they lost a few days earlier. However, the odds did not favor the whole pullback/consolidation being over. I am still in that camp although with this morning’s much stronger than expected employment report and the pre-market surge, I guess I have to be open to the notion that the little bout of weakness is over. We will certainly see in the […]
Read More
Date: December 6, 2019
3 in a Row for the Bears as ISM and Trump Give Aid
The bears are on a three day winning streak with Tuesday scoring the most points and the chorus growing louder that this is anything but a harmless little pullback. On Monday, the media chalked up the decline to the ISM survey which was disappointingly weak. If that was truly the case, why did bonds also sell off? If the economy was weakening, shouldn’t bonds have rallied? My good friend, Tony Dwyer (@dwyerstrategy), offered that the media reported a disappointing number […]
Read More
Date: December 4, 2019
Lots of Action Across the Board – Stay Alert
Welcome back from Thanksgiving! I hope you had a safe, fun and meaningful holiday!! For me, I was very thankful to be alive after my mid-May mishap. As usual, I will have the various details of the Schatz Thanksgiving feast in an upcoming Street$marts. With 11 full months in the books, December trading starts today. The last month of the year is typically a very bullish one, especially when it begins in rally mode. 2018 was certainly an outlier that […]
Read More
Date: December 1, 2019
Bullish Week Coming. Healthcare Leading
Stocks are set to open higher to begin Thanksgiving week where we only have 3 1/2 days of trading. This week is typically a good one for the bulls. Last week, the stock market treaded water and the bears definitely had a chance to make some noise. I doubt they will have the same opportunity this week unless a piece of random news hits out of nowhere. As you know, I have been neutral to a little negative in the […]
Read More
Date: November 25, 2019
Bulls Biding Their Time
Stocks continue to trade very quietly lately. It seems like every day there is a narrow range from high to low. And that’s okay. Although I have had short-term concerns for the past few weeks, the bulls have done an amazing job of thwarting each and every little attack by the bears. As I have said a number of times, stocks will either mildly pull back or move sideways for several weeks. Right now, the latter is the preferred scenario, […]
Read More
Date: November 22, 2019
Bulls Still in Charge, But
As stocks headed into November the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 were all at or very, very close to all-time highs. I know this comes as no surprise to my readers as I have written about my upside projections over and over and over. Dow 28,000 was next, a target I began discussing at the end of 2017. Five straight closes above that level will open up my long, long, longstanding target of Dow 30,000, a pie in […]
Read More
Date: November 21, 2019
