The Times They are a Changin’… BEWARE
The latest Street$marts has been posted. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20130623.pdf Heading to Fox Business shortly. Should be an “interesting” discussion given the volatility and fear in the martkets.
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Date: June 25, 2013
CNBC and Fox Business This Week
I am going to be on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street on June 24 at 10am and Fox Business’ Markets Now on June 25 at 1pm. Going out on a limb that the bond market just bottomed and is about to begin a meaningful rally. Bond proxies and like stock sectors to follow. Telecom, utilities, etc. Volatility should be here for a while but that’s no reason to go hide in a bunker!
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Date: June 24, 2013
And Now China
Financial markets have been hit with the double whammy. First, Bernanke described the Fed’s plan for tapering asset purchases later this year and next and overnight, China reported weaker economic data and some trouble in their banking system. The markets responded with much selling on the heels of yesterday’s sell off, taking the Dow under 15,000. The next downside target for the major stock market indices is just below their respective May lows. After that, markets are probably looking at a […]
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Date: June 20, 2013
Bernanke’s Successor
First President Obama says that Ben Bernanke has stayed on longer than he planned. Then he slaps him upside the head by saying that he has stayed longer than he was supposed. And when given the opportunity to walk that comment back, the president not only declines but also doesn’t give Bernanke any real ringing endorsement. All very interesting to say the least! Federal Reserve Vice Chair, Janet Yellen, is the odds on favorite to succeed Bernanke next year and […]
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Date: June 20, 2013
Pre Fed Chatter
As expected, here was the usual spirited discussion I had on CNBC’s Squawk Box before the Fed meeting. I firmly believe that when the Fed reduces the amount of money printing, that is a form of stimulus reduction and interest rates increase. With the Fed Funds rate at essentially 0%, Bernanke used money printing as another tool to effectively have negative rates. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100823745
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Date: June 19, 2013
OUCH!!!
Tough week for Ben Bernanke gets worse as he throws ice cold water on the stock and bond markets, hinting that the $85B per month in money printing will begin to be reduced later this year and eventually ended in 2014 with rates rising in 2015. As much as I love Big Ben, I have less confidence in the Fed’s long-term forecast than my local weatherman’s five day forecast. Bernanke can jawbone all he wants, but I for one will be […]
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Date: June 19, 2013
It’s All About Big Ben
The stock market rally that began last Thursday continued into the “all important” Fed meeting on Wednesday. It seems like every Fed announcement is now hailed as the most important one ever and this one is certainly no exception. To keep everyone on their toes, Bernanke & Company changed the announcement time to 2:00pm with the press conference beginning at 2:30pm. There has been a strong tendency for the market to close higher almost 70% of the time on announcement […]
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Date: June 19, 2013
Squawk Box TOMORROW at 6:30am
I am going to be on CNBC’s Squawk Box tomorrow, June 18, at 6:30am discussing the upcoming Fed meeting and the market impact their announcement could have.
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Date: June 17, 2013
Who Turned the Lights Out?
After a nice opening by the bulls on Wednesday, the bears came out en mass to print a fairly ugly day across the board except for gold and the stocks. It looks like stocks are heading back to revisit the lows from last week which should happen in the next few days. The stock market is now as oversold as it has been at any time since the November bottom. Failure to respond positively over the coming week would be […]
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Date: June 14, 2013
Where Did the Bulls go?
I did not like the action today to begin the new week. After Thursday and Friday, the bulls needed to hold serve and not let the bears see any weakness. Monday and Tuesday saw the bears take over and that does not bode well in the short-term, even though the stock market is oversold. More caution is warranted.
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Date: June 12, 2013
Bears in Full Attack Mode
Just one week ago, all the talk was about Dow 16,000 and even higher. They said the year was just like 1995. HA! Years like 1995 come along once every investment cycle, almost like we saw in 2003. The major indices were solidly red today for the second time in four sessions. Contrary to popular belief, trees don’t grow to the sky and neither do stocks! So far, this is an orderly and healthy pullback that should max out at the […]
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Date: June 7, 2013
Bears Still Fleeing Bonds et al
It’s been a relentless assault on the bond market and other interest rate sensitive instruments of late. Treasury bonds, mortgage backed securities, high quality corporate bonds, junk bonds, utilities, REITs have seen intense selling pressure that has only paused for a day here and there since late April. Telecom, REITs and high yield bond mutual funds all hit our sell triggers last month and it certainly feels like consumer staples mutual funds and a few more bond ETFs aren’t too far behind. […]
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Date: June 5, 2013
Apple Is Still Vulnerable, Could Test $250 in Bear Market
A familiar and often controversial topic over the past year or so has been my very negative forecast for Apple. As you know, we do not buy or sell individual stocks as part of our investment strategies but used to view Apple as THE market leader and now a bellwether stock. Long-term, nothing has changed in my view, but I do think a potential rally is setting up that could take the shares into the mid $500s. I will discuss […]
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Date: June 5, 2013
Why Bernanke Can’t Be Fully Transparent
After being interviewed by Melissa Francis for so many years both at Fox Business and CNBC, it was great to finally meet her in person on set. She definitely does not lob softball questions! Here is the segment from the other day. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2404884981001/why-bernanke-cant-be-fully-transparent/ Action in the stock market on Thursday and Friday was positive enough to indicate at least one more run to all time highs sooner than later. It was be interesting to what leads and lags if that […]
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Date: May 30, 2013
Bond Market Sending Warning Sign
Tuesday’s stock market rally looked better in the media than in reality. Early strength was sold and there was not much conviction from the buyers. Unless we see the bulls step up and close above Tuesday’s high, stocks look like they need a pause or pullback here. Closing below Dow 15,175 should set off even more selling while closing above 15,550 should entice more buyers back in. I am concerned here that high yield bonds have taken it on the […]
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Date: May 30, 2013
Gold Skeptics Have Peaked but Gold Prices Haven’t
The other day I spent some time with my friends at Yahoo Finance recording several segments. Here is the one I did on why I have become more bullish on gold recently after watching the metal fall from $1900 to $1320. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/gold-skeptics-peaked-gold-prices-haven-t-paul-155320270.html
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Date: May 28, 2013
Big Ben Pours Cold Water on Bulls
The stock market saw a very dramatic and emotional reversal today as fresh all time highs were seen in the morning followed by a vicious selling wave from the highs until 3:30. The hardest hit sectors all focused on dividends that would become less attractive if interest rates rose. Utilities, telecom, REITs and financials. Pundits were quick to compare today’s action to that seen at THE peak in 2007 and 2000, but I believe that is misplaced. While the price behavior […]
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Date: May 24, 2013
Fox Business and Yahoo Finance
I head to New York in the morning (Thursday) to spend some time with my friends at Yahoo Finance. As usual, you can expect another controversial segment or two from my interview with Jeff Mackey. Yahoo Finance was the first media outlet I began to warn about Apple’s stock price heading for a 50%+ decline and that long-term forecast remains the same. However, something may be changing over the short-term… Besides visiting Yahoo and meeting with clients, I am also […]
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Date: May 22, 2013
Stocks Surge Higher With Authority
All of the major stock market indices saw more all time highs but this time it looked like a serious bull rush with the market opening flatish and pushing higher and higher all day. Some of the “old” defensive leaders came back to life like healthcare, consumer staples and utilities. This market is beginning to feel like a melt up which usually sees even more vertical gains, but which also ends in ruins. In my 2013 forecast, I called for […]
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Date: May 16, 2013
With Trepidation, Onwards and Upwards
Here is the segment from this morning’s (May 8) Squawk Box with a really good discussion on the stock market, economy, employment numbers and the Fed. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000166972&play=1 Many of the small cracks I saw in the markets a month ago have repaired themselves with sideways action instead an outright correction. The canaries of liquidity, high yield bonds, small cap stocks and the New York Stock Exchange advance/decline line are all seeing all time highs. The Dow Jones Transportation Index has played […]
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Date: May 8, 2013
