Gold’s Bearish Pattern Trying to Change
When we last left off with the gold market (and the chart below), I offered that “Unless the metal quickly regains the $1350 level, we are most likely looking at further selling and even more record setting negative sentiment before a sustainable rally can begin.” Gold continued its collapse from the time I hit the send button at $1292 all the way down to $1179 a week later. From $1179, it rallied all the way back to $1303 this […]
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Date: July 26, 2013
Fox Business Markets Now on July 25th at 1pm
I am going to be on Fox Business’ Markets Now tomorrow (Thursday July 25) at 1:00pm EDT discussing earnings, the upcoming Fed meeting and where stocks are headed this quarter. I am also going to spend some time with the folks at Yahoo Finance creating three segments. The first will be on the comparison between 1987 and the current market while the second will focus on the upcoming Fed meeting and when Bernanke & Co. will begin to pull the punch […]
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Date: July 24, 2013
Comparisons to 1987 Mount
For the past six months when asked about my outlook for 2013 I replied that I thought it would be a front loaded year with all or close to all of the gains during the first half of the year. I have and continue to compare it to 1987 without a one day stock market crash. Others have predicted that 2013 will look more like 1995, the single greatest investing year of the modern era. Now that would make me (and you) […]
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Date: July 22, 2013
Economy Still Plodding Along
Economically, as you know, my views haven’t changed since 2009. We are living the “typical” post financial crisis recovery with sub par growth and stubbornly high unemployment that sometimes teases on the upside and terrifies on the downside. Until we get to the other side of the next recession, I believe it will continue this way. I often share two of my favorite and off the beaten path indicators to look for clues as to the direction of the economy. […]
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Date: July 19, 2013
Short-Term Crossroad
Interesting crossroad for the stock market. Price action says more rally coming shortly while sentiment and internals argue for a 4-8% pullback into August. I guess both could occur in theory. With the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 hitting fresh all time highs, it will be telling to see if any more cracks appear in the market’s foundation. We’ll take a look at our regular column of Canaries in the Coal Mine shortly. Yesterday, Ben Bernanke’s much anticipated and […]
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Date: July 18, 2013
Oil Acting Up
Crude oil has very quietly rallied from $93 to $106 over the past few weeks. I am surprised we haven’t heard more from the media about it. Usually when it cracks $100, we hear how it is going to hurt the consumer and lead to recession. And all this while the dollar was strong as well. Thursday’s downside reversal was interesting, especially given how weak the dollar was and I will be closely watching to see if the bears can muster […]
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Date: July 12, 2013
Big Ben to the Rescue
It wasn’t long ago that we discussed Bernanke throwing cold water on the rally, something I thought was overblown. But on Wednesday after the markets closed, he did a complete 180 and essentially gave the crack addict more crack. While I was not at all surprised with what he said, I thought the market overreacted somewhat. Precious metals stocks and emerging markets were the biggest beneficiaries of the Bernanke Bang which should be expected given how decimated they were. Friday […]
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Date: July 12, 2013
Still in a Selling Mood
Although short, it was a good exchange on Squawk Box the other morning. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000180365&play=1 The stock market SHOULD come back from the day and a half break with the bulls pushing the Dow well above 15,000 again. We have the jobs report at 8:30am on Friday and I don’t see that as throwing too much cold water on the rally. But as I have discussed and written about for a while, I believe rallies over 15,000 are selling opportunities for now. […]
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Date: July 4, 2013
Squawk Box on Wednesday July 3 at 6:30am
I am going to be on CNBC’s Squawk Box tomorrow (Wednesday July 3) at 6:30am discussing Friday’s “much anticipated” jobs report (aren’t they all???) and my outlook for stocks. If you missed last night’s Nightly Business Report, you can find it here. http://nbr.com/2013/07/02/dont-expect-earnings-blowout-or-market-rallies-pro-says/ The only thing I forgot to mention last night when I spoke about high quality corporate bonds and floating rate was that municipal bonds have been hammered as badly as any time since Meredith Whitney’s pathetically awful call towards the end […]
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Date: July 2, 2013
Nightly Business Report TONIGHT
I am going to be on The Nightly Business Report tonight (Monday July 1st). In my neck of the woods, it’s at 6:30pm on public television, CPTV or channel 13. You can find it on your dial here, http://nbr.com/. In all likelihood we will be discussing what I see down the road as we begin the new quarter and second half of the year with earnings season beginning next week. Stocks are beginning the quarter with the bulls in charge. Will […]
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Date: July 1, 2013
Markets Stabilized… For Now
Here is the segment I did with Fox Business. I think Adam Shapiro was trying to interview me as a bull, but he ended up calling me a bear. Truth is, I am an opportunist right here and willing to play both sides of the market for a while. I think big rallies can be sold and short-term panics can be bought. http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2506211035001/markets-stabilizedfor-now/
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Date: July 1, 2013
Market angst pushes stocks into ‘pullback’ territory
Thanks to Adam Shell for the quote in the USA Today article below. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/06/24/stock-pullback-intensifies/2453507/ Adam Shell, USA TODAY 9:34 p.m. EDT June 24, 2013 Pullbacks of 5% or more are considered normal. But with stocks in an early summer swoon and angst over the Federal Reserve’s plan to pull back on stimulus, investors wonder when the selling will end. Story Highlights S&P 500 suffers first 5% dip since late 2012 as losses mount Pros debate whether the selling is […]
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Date: July 1, 2013
Just a Few Words Please
Here is the segment I did on Squawk on the Street the other day with Rich Bernstein. Rich does good work but geez, can I get a word in? http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000178049&play=1 Stocks rallied for the second day in a row and while it seems like investors have forgotten about the Fed’s tapering, I don’t believe the decline is over just yet. Another 100 points in the Dow and it will be time to lighten up again.
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Date: June 27, 2013
The Times They are a Changin’… BEWARE
The latest Street$marts has been posted. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20130623.pdf Heading to Fox Business shortly. Should be an “interesting” discussion given the volatility and fear in the martkets.
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Date: June 25, 2013
CNBC and Fox Business This Week
I am going to be on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street on June 24 at 10am and Fox Business’ Markets Now on June 25 at 1pm. Going out on a limb that the bond market just bottomed and is about to begin a meaningful rally. Bond proxies and like stock sectors to follow. Telecom, utilities, etc. Volatility should be here for a while but that’s no reason to go hide in a bunker!
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Date: June 24, 2013
And Now China
Financial markets have been hit with the double whammy. First, Bernanke described the Fed’s plan for tapering asset purchases later this year and next and overnight, China reported weaker economic data and some trouble in their banking system. The markets responded with much selling on the heels of yesterday’s sell off, taking the Dow under 15,000. The next downside target for the major stock market indices is just below their respective May lows. After that, markets are probably looking at a […]
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Date: June 20, 2013
Bernanke’s Successor
First President Obama says that Ben Bernanke has stayed on longer than he planned. Then he slaps him upside the head by saying that he has stayed longer than he was supposed. And when given the opportunity to walk that comment back, the president not only declines but also doesn’t give Bernanke any real ringing endorsement. All very interesting to say the least! Federal Reserve Vice Chair, Janet Yellen, is the odds on favorite to succeed Bernanke next year and […]
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Date: June 20, 2013
Pre Fed Chatter
As expected, here was the usual spirited discussion I had on CNBC’s Squawk Box before the Fed meeting. I firmly believe that when the Fed reduces the amount of money printing, that is a form of stimulus reduction and interest rates increase. With the Fed Funds rate at essentially 0%, Bernanke used money printing as another tool to effectively have negative rates. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100823745
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Date: June 19, 2013
OUCH!!!
Tough week for Ben Bernanke gets worse as he throws ice cold water on the stock and bond markets, hinting that the $85B per month in money printing will begin to be reduced later this year and eventually ended in 2014 with rates rising in 2015. As much as I love Big Ben, I have less confidence in the Fed’s long-term forecast than my local weatherman’s five day forecast. Bernanke can jawbone all he wants, but I for one will be […]
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Date: June 19, 2013
