Is the Rally Over???
Here is a very quick and timely update to start the week. Time to be on our toes. I will have more tomorrow or Thursday, but there may be a change afoot. Stocks did not end the day well on Friday. No big deal. They were up slightly but gave up big gains. That’s normally not unusual except that it was into a holiday weekend. That’s atypical. While the rally off of the lows has been significant it has lacked […]
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Date: February 20, 2018
Two Scenarios Updated. Put Up or Shut Up
I had hoped to have a full canaries in the coal mine done today, but I failed (or lied as some could say) as I am only half done. It’s okay, though. Stocks are behaving exactly according to the footprints I first offered 10 days ago, making life a little easier, for now. And regardless, I am still forecasting Dow 27,000 next quarter with the chance of 30,000 later this year. Below you can see the original chart with the […]
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Date: February 20, 2018
A Friday Bottom Is In!
People seemed to like starting with the conclusion, so let’s do it again. Stocks put in a short-term bottom on Friday Yes, that happens on Fridays S&P 500 successfully revisited Monday’s overnight low Volatility declined even as stocks were lower Just as I was hitting send last Friday, the stock market began to rescue itself from the depths of despair for the second time in one week. That was right about the time so many pundits and reporters were boldly […]
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Date: February 12, 2018
What If I am Wrong?!?!
A very long market week is coming to an end. Stocks could not hold on to the rally on Wednesday morning which led to spillover selling on Thursday that accelerated sharply into the close. After a decent morning for the bulls, sellers came in again into lunch on Friday and it looks like the market will need another reversal set up to stem the tide. That could include another ugly morning on Monday or Tuesday, but doesn’t necessarily have to. […]
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Date: February 9, 2018
Stocks Following Map So Far. Range Established for Feb. Dow 27,000
My last two updates focused on the stock market’s mini crash and the reliable historical pattern that typically ensues, including what I saw as the somewhat predicable Turnaround Tuesday where stocks reverse early losses after selling off sharply on Friday and Monday. I was looking for that “woosh” lower early Tuesday and while down 600 wasn’t the magnitude I wanted to see, it was enough to flush out the remaining sellers and entice some buyers in. The worst may be […]
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Date: February 8, 2018
1987 Again? Post Crash Playbook. Turnaround Tuesday
I am going to do something different today and start with my conclusion and work somewhat backwards. The bull market remains intact and fresh all-time highs should be seen next quarter. Buying into sharp downdrafts, while emotionally very difficult, should be rewarded over the intermediate-term. Like a snowball rolling downhill, whatever this decline is going to end up being labeled, the market is right in the middle of the highest speed and maximum acceleration. As with the snowball, it is […]
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Date: February 6, 2018
Post Mini Crash Stock Market Playbook. All-Time Highs Around the Corner
The Dow Jones Industrial Average “crashed” 666 points on Friday, at least that’s how the media portrayed it. And it’s on track to open another 1%+ lower this morning. In 1987, 666 points would have been more than 25%. In 2018, that’s all of 2.5%. 2.5% moves used to mostly occur monthly and certainly quarterly. During extreme periods of volatility, like 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009 and 2011, a 2.5% move would barely get noticed. Today, it’s BREAKING NEWS. Why??? Recent […]
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Date: February 5, 2018
And Stocks Go Down AGAIN
More than a week ago, I started discussing the idea that a trading range was setting in with modestly lower and higher prices as the range. For a few session, stocks blew right past that idea. Before today, the stock market had very, very quietly pulled back for four sessions without much fanfare except for some weak internal readings. That all changed as a solid employment report with finally some real wage growth further spooked the bond market, sending yields […]
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Date: February 2, 2018
Fed Statement Day Disappoints. Defensive Groups Lead.
Fed statement day was certainly atypical and a volatile affair. Early strength was sold into which accelerated after the 2pm announcement. And Just when it looked like the bears would turn the day into a rout, the 3pm bell rung and the bulls came roaring back to life. What was most interesting was that while the Fed didn’t say much in their statement and actually was slightly more positive on the economy, it was the defensive groups, like REITs and […]
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Date: February 1, 2018
Stocks Can Go Down?!?!
On Monday we learned that stocks can actually decline in 2018. On Tuesday, we are about to find out that stocks can go down on back to back days and accelerate lower. People seem to have forgotten that! With a trading range/pullback setting in, I am looking at Dow 25,800 as a logical downside target, but of course, we could go a bit lower. Semis, banks and discretionary are acting well and transports aren’t horrendous. There is news just out […]
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Date: January 30, 2018
