ANOTHER Reversal
While stocks opened higher on Thursday, the bulls couldn’t hold on to those gains as the Trump Tariff & Trade Tantrum sprouted up again. With the G7 meeting this weekend, stocks are probably going to pause and let tensions cool off. As headlines and tweets crossed the wires, stocks gave up those early gains and for a few hours, selling was strong. Below is a chart that has become all too familiar. It’s the Russell 2000 Index of small cap […]
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Date: June 8, 2018
Bulls in Charge. Oil Corrects
With the elevator pattern broken, stocks have enjoyed a nice rally since Friday. The Dow Industrials are FINALLY getting off their rear end and seem poised to visit 25,100. All of the other major indices are well above that comparable level with the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 at new highs. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 are gearing up for new highs. Markets are much healthier with the Dow lagging than leading. Sector leadership is strong and improving. The […]
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Date: June 6, 2018
Follow Through???
Stocks ended last week with a solid up day, completing four days of down, up, down, up. The elevator ride may try to end today as stocks are poised to rise at the open. We will have to see if we get a run throughout the day or if they fade and end up in the red. With earnings season over and the biggest economic report of the month already in the books, only the inflation data are left before […]
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Date: June 4, 2018
Trump’s Foot in Tweet. Strong Jobs Report & Fed
If it’s the first Friday of the month, it’s the “all-important” jobs report. I opened Twitter to find the president tweeting about the still embargoed report and that was “looking forward to it”. Trump has many communication and information faux pas in his short tenure, but this one may be his biggest blunder. The President of the United States hinting at the content of market moving confidential information scheduled to be released is certainly precedent setting and idiotic. Anyway, as […]
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Date: June 1, 2018
Like an Elevator
Down big. Up big. It’s like riding the elevator at the Empire State Building. Italy’s banking system goes from being on the verge of collapse to all is hunky dory in 36 hours. The past few days looked a little bit like BREXIT almost two years ago. While I did not believe BREXIT was going to be a huge event at the time, I still think that Italy has the potential to be that sub prime mortgage canary in the […]
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Date: May 31, 2018
Italy Definitely Matters. Canary in the Coal Mine?
Stocks were “supposed” to rally on Friday ahead of the long weekend. While they did put in a good performance, they still ended in the red. That adds further weight on the short-term negativity of some of our models when stocks don’t behave as the odds say they should. This morning we woke up to more troubles in Italy. Anyone surprised by this hasn’t been paying attention. In my year-end report to clients as well as in my Fearless Forecast, […]
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Date: May 29, 2018
Double Reversal of the Reversal
On Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday we saw three separate reversals in the major stock market indices. First, there was a “key” downside reversal after a nice little rally, followed by back to back days of stock selling off early and closing strong. Long time market analyst, Walter Deemer, very aptly replied to one of my tweets that it’s not so much the reversal itself, but the action after those wilder, more emotional days. People love to cherry pick and and […]
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Date: May 25, 2018
“Key” Reversals. Junk Bonds Still Stink
Let’s start with junk bonds. While they don’t really stink, they are not participating at all in the stock rally. As I mention time and time again, that has little value in the short-term and no predictive power. However, it does matter, and sometimes a lot, over the intermediate-term. My fear, well I am really not scared but rather concerned, is that the final peak in high yield bonds has already been seen. If that’s the case, it doesn’t bode […]
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Date: May 23, 2018
Pause Ending?
With news out that Trump Tariff Tantrum has been delayed, stocks around the globe are rallying roughly 1%. That’s the expectation when trading begins for the new week. It will be telling to see if all five major stock market indices can score new highs for the month which would give the bulls more credibility. I would really like to see another index besides the Russell 2000 see all-time highs right now. Additionally, on the far right side of the […]
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Date: May 21, 2018
Small Caps Still Leading But…
The mild pullback/consolidation continues although you wouldn’t know from watching the Russell 2000 small cap index below. This index sits at all-time highs as seen above the dark blue horizontal line as well as breaking higher above the light blue line which has contained price since the early Q1 correction. On the surface things look really good for small caps as they are leading. However, I do think their leadership is close to ending with the other major indices about […]
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Date: May 18, 2018
