Bulls Fighting to Begin the Year But Apple, Apple, Apple
After opening down 400 points on the first trading day of 2019, the bulls fought back really hard to erase 100% of that loss by the close and eke out a small gain. That was very impressive. Leadership came from the most beaten down sectors from 2018, energy and financials. That’s not surprising. So many investors sold those names during Q4 for tax loss reasons as well as window dressing to make their portfolio holdings look better than they actually […]
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Date: January 3, 2019
Big Gains to Close the Year But the Bulls Remain on Their Heels
Welcome to 2019! I hope you had an enjoyable and safe New Year’s. We had an absolutely wild and crazy one. It was one for the ages! I think my wife and I were fast asleep by 11pm although I am told that the kids were up until 1am. It’s good to be young. We were in Vermont and had some folks over for a very low key evening as yet another non snow producing winter storm came through as […]
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Date: January 1, 2019
Bulls and Santa Claus Making a Stand. One Indicator for the All Clear
December has already set all kinds of precedents going back to the 1800s, including depth of decline, speed of decline, length of decline and intensity of decline. Remember, stocks just don’t decline all that often in December, ESPECIALLY during a mid-term election year where Q4 and December has almost always been like shooting fish in a barrel. I had to go all the way back to 1931 to find anything remotely similar, but let’s face it, price analogs that old […]
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Date: December 30, 2018
Crushing the Doubters
I know I must sound like a broken record, but boy, have the bulls been tough to fight. Just when the bears think a deeper pullback has started, the bulls step up again and power stocks higher. After an unexpected turnaround on Monday from the early weakness after the lack of OPEC production cuts, stocks are pausing once again. Earnings season is in full swing and we have heard time and time again how this is the worst earnings since […]
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Date: April 20, 2016
All-Time Highs On the Way, But…
After a 24 hour trip to Houston, I am happily back home.Thanks to the Houston MTA for hosting me and inviting me to speak at their chapter meeting. I really enjoyed my time there. It was also good to see clients, colleagues and friends, all in 24 hours! When I look back over my posts since the bottom, there has been one common theme. The bulls are in control. Higher prices to follow. Expect brief and mild pullbacks. Continue to […]
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Date: April 14, 2016
Give the Bears a Break
Last Friday, I wrote about stocks looking a little sleepy, but that higher prices would eventually prevail. For the 6th time since the rally began on February 11th, the stock market is pulling back. It’s normal, healthy and expected. No need to panic. The bears should be out in force shortly with calls of another correction or resumption of the bear market. But let’s give them a break; they have had so little to celebrate for almost two months. The […]
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Date: April 5, 2016
History Says Higher, but Stocks a Little Sleepy
Stocks ended the quarter just shy of fresh highs and booked a huge 6%+ return for March. Historically, that portends more upside over the first week of April. Speaking of April, it is one of the strongest months of the year. Most of the long-term studies I have done and read indicate higher prices 6 and 12 months out. On the flip side, stocks have looked a little sleepy over the past two days and today is the monthly release […]
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Date: April 1, 2016
Bye Bye March & Q1
Last day of the month. Last day of the quarter. What a ride it’s been although if you fell asleep on New Year’s Eve and woke up today, you might conclude it was a quiet three months with the Dow up a few hundred and points and the S&P up 1%. As we all know, it was anything but dull. March is on pace to return more than 6% after an historically weak start to the year. This kind of […]
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Date: March 31, 2016
And the 5th Pullback since The Bottom Ends
On March 21, I penned a piece calling for the 5th pullback since the rally began. I used words like “brief” and “mild” to describe what I thought was coming before the next rally began. As with the previous four pullbacks, all we saw was essentially two days of slight weakness before the bulls roared back. And roar back they did. Right before Janet Yellen released her speech on Tuesday, I did an interview with CNBC India regarding the Fed […]
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Date: March 30, 2016
The 5th Pullback Since The Bottom is Here
Repeating what I said on Friday, stocks now have a mild headwind post the Fed announcement which last through this week. Couple that with the fifth short-term overbought market since the rally began on February 11 and you have the ingredients for a small pullback or pause to refresh. The rally isn’t over. Three of the four key sectors (except banks) are dominating and can still be bought on weakness. While all of the major indices remain strong, I am […]
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Date: March 21, 2016
