Plodding through the Pullback
Not much has changed this week. As has been the case since April 21, I am still looking for lower prices, but nothing dramatic. The selling has been orderly and constructive. The NYSE advance/decline remains very strong and healthy, not what you typically see during bear markets or large declines. High yield (junk) bonds, which we have owned for months, continue to behave very well with oil stable and rising. The major stock market indices are only a few percent […]
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Date: May 18, 2016
“Bounce” Teetering
The “bounce” I mentioned here remains alive although it is living on borrowed time. I continue to believe the ultimate low remains in front of us. Retail and consumer discretionary stocks have been the latest to take it on the chin with a slew of poor earnings from Macy’s Nordstroms, etc. This sector is one of my key vital four groups and it’s important for the bull market’s health to keep the majority of them moving forward. While I do […]
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Date: May 13, 2016
Here Comes the Bounce
The major stock market indices staged an impressive comeback on Friday as they all reversed early losses to close nicely higher. Given the very orderly pullback along with some modest losses of roughly 3% except in the NASDAQ, the odds now favor the bulls stepping up right here for at least a short-term bounce. Should the bounce materialize, the next question will be if it’s a bounce all the way to new highs or just back towards 18,000 before rolling […]
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Date: May 9, 2016
Bears Knocking on Door Again
The major stock market indices are under pressure for the second day in a row, potentially threatening to close below last Friday’s low which is a line in the sand I spoke about on Monday. We will see what happens after 4pm. The selling continues to look orderly and there is not much internal damage being done to the market so far. Semis and banks concern me the most as the bull market can survive without either but not both. […]
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Date: May 4, 2016
Bulls then Bears and Finally Bulls
The stock market had a nice little reversal on Friday as the bulls fended off morning weakness to close well off the lows. While I remain in the pullback camp and see lower prices ahead, the bulls should have enough ammunition to mount a small rally here. If Friday’s lows are closed below anytime this week, I would become slightly more concerned than I already am regarding the short-term, but I don’t think that’s the most likely scenario here. On […]
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Date: May 2, 2016
Apple’s Collapse as the Market Bears Reign
Just over a week ago and one day after most of the major market indices peaked, I posted a piece entitled Reigning in Bullishness where for the first time since the rally began in February, I tempered my enthusiasm. I couched my negative comments with more sanguine words that I absolutely do not believe the bull market has topped. This looks like a routine, normal and healthy pullback, but also the deepest decline since the rally began. It’s been a […]
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Date: April 29, 2016
The “Secret” Reason Yellen Doesn’t Want to Raise Rates. Special Fed Meeting Update
I believe there is a “secret” behind the Fed being slow to hike short-term interest rates. I will get to that in a minute. Today’s Meeting Let’s start with non-controversial items first. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee concludes their two day meeting with an announcement at 2 pm that interest rates will not change today. That’s what the markets are expecting. There has been all kinds of hot air coming from several Fed officials that rates need to rise […]
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Date: April 27, 2016
Apple & The Fed. A Volatile Concoction…
The FOMC begins their regularly scheduled two-day meeting today. Typically, stocks are quiet with a small upward bias. However, Apple reports earnings after the bell and that almost always provides some movement as the tech behemoth has an outsized weighting in the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ 100. I have absolutely no opinion on how their earnings will be and I really only care about how the market reacts anyway. The fact that it has sold off into earnings gives […]
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Date: April 26, 2016
Reigning in Bullishness
It has certainly been one sensational run for the bulls since February 11th. Hopefully, you have not only enjoyed it but profited from it as well. I know I could not have pounded the table any harder at the bottom to buy at a time when CNBC and Fox Business only paraded the doom and gloom crowd with calls for a new bear market and a repeat of 2008. And while I do not believe the final highs are in, […]
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Date: April 21, 2016
Crushing the Doubters
I know I must sound like a broken record, but boy, have the bulls been tough to fight. Just when the bears think a deeper pullback has started, the bulls step up again and power stocks higher. After an unexpected turnaround on Monday from the early weakness after the lack of OPEC production cuts, stocks are pausing once again. Earnings season is in full swing and we have heard time and time again how this is the worst earnings since […]
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Date: April 20, 2016
