Powell Hangover Continues
The risk markets continue their post-Powell decline from Friday. The S&P 500 has just about reached its short-term downside target of roughly 3950, but we have not seen a solid attempt at a low just yet. Last week I was concerned about the poor action in junk bonds and that continued this week, so much so that we were forced to unwind our various positions at the same time as we were reducing stock market exposure. August ended up playing […]
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Date: August 31, 2022
Powell Pours Cold Water on The Markets
On Friday, I came in with a very specific plan for the day. I was looking to be a seller overall, but I really wanted to see how the markets reacted to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech rather than what he actually said. First, I was surprised at just how hawkish and stern his remarks were. I kept waiting for the “but” or “however” which never came. He never even hinted at the elusive soft landing like we saw in […]
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Date: August 29, 2022
All Eyes on Powell
Today is the big day when we hear Fed Chair Jay Powell speak from the KC Fed’s symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. I wonder if he will take the beautiful hike to Jenny Lake or visit the Million Dollar Cowboy Bar in town? I love Jackson. It’s such a great place although the rich and famous seem to have discovered it this century and prices have skyrocketed. Disappointingly for the bulls, markets have rallied into his speech. I would have […]
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Date: August 26, 2022
Skunked
It was a fantastic start to my evening. We finally got some rain. The Yankees were up 2-1 over the Mets. My good friend got some really great, I mean generational news. Then the Yankees blundered followed by a loud scream at the house. Not one, but both dogs got sprayed by a skunk. Not our first skunk rodeo. We cordoned them off in the mud room, the dogs not the Yankees who eventually won. Off to the store I […]
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Date: August 24, 2022
Pullback Area About To Be Reached – Banks Trying
Boy, when the S&P 500 crashes into its average price of the last 200 days that is really like a 12 foot thick, impenetrable concrete wall that no market can even get through. Those nasty bears. Yes, I am of course being sarcastic. The Dow Industrials, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 did not even flinch on their way through those respective levels. With today’s sharply lower open on the heels of a very heavy day last Friday, the stock market […]
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Date: August 22, 2022
Stocks Regain Half of Bear Market – New Highs Ahead?
Earlier this week I wrote about the stock market visiting the Magical and Mystical level of the average price of the last 200 days. I was a bit snarky and sarcastic as I usually am when pundits make asinine comments and claims. In any case, I wrote that the “obvious trade is to suck money in and then quickly pull the rug”. Judging by the last two days and what looks to be a weak opening and options expiration, that’s […]
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Date: August 19, 2022
The Magical & Mystical 200 Day Moving Average
On Monday I wrote China Stinky and said that we need to see how markets react to the news rather than accept the news at face value. And wouldn’t you know it, U.S. stocks surged higher after opening lower in the face of all that bad news. Let me get my shocked face, said me with full sarcasm. Can we rewind all those bearish pundit interviews before 10am on Monday? Of course the media won’t hold anyone accountable. On Tuesday […]
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Date: August 17, 2022
China Stinky
The new week begins with news that China’s economy isn’t as robust as thought. Who really knows what goes on over there. They are never forthcoming will data so this likely means it’s kind of stinky now. While that news hit the pre-market let’s remember that it’s not what the news is, but rather how markets react. Have you heard that before? When I look at the Chinese stocks and ETFs of which we own KWEB, they all seem to […]
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Date: August 15, 2022
Face Ripping Rally
On Wednesday before the government released the first of two inflation reports I wrote If I am Wrong the Rally Has Ended. I try to be crystal clear on my thesis. I wrote that “I do not believe the rally has ended…” There was no wavering. But I always try recognize how and when I could be wrong. I was surprised at the number of emails asking me why I thought the rally was over. I never said I thought […]
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Date: August 12, 2022
If I am Wrong the Rally Has Ended
The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has basically gone nowhere in 7 trading sessions. Bulls say it is a sign of strength that all the negative headlines have been unable to shake the market lower. Bears looks at that dark blue horizontal line below and conclude that stocks failed to close above it and are now vulnerable. Although I do not believe the rally from the June 17th bottom is over, I am certainly aware of a […]
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Date: August 10, 2022
