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Category: Paul’s Insights

Another Shot Down & Rally

The stock market had a very rough end to the week, falling more than 5% from Thursday’s high to Friday’s close, ending with a 2.5% down day on Friday. That’s significant. Let’s unpack each number a little. Thursday to Friday collapses usually lead to one more big decline on Monday. There have only been a few instances to the contrary. However, down 2.5% Friday usually lead to a rally above Friday’s close with in the next week. The S&P 500 […]   Read More
Date: April 25, 2022

1994 & 2018 Still Offer the Best Clues on What Lies Ahead – Dow 40,000

A new video is posted. 1994 & 2018 Still Offer the Best Clues on What Lies Ahead – Dow 40,000   Read More
Date: April 24, 2022

Still Sloppy, Choppy & Frustrating

Stocks staged an impressive rally on Turnaround Tuesday, however we still did not see volume in stocks going up overwhelm that in stocks going down. The price action was strong and leadership was powerful. But remember, it was one single day. And for those operating on the thesis that this is a bear market, those kinds of rallies can and occur often. I am not one of them, but it should be said. Buying strength and selling weakness is tough […]   Read More
Date: April 20, 2022

Bulls Approaching The Danger Zone

Because of the holiday-shortened week last week, I wasn’t planning on a Thursday update, but I quickly cobbled one together. In my haste, I did not wish everyone celebrating, a Happy Passover and Easter. I hope yours was meaningful if you observed. Going without gluten for 8 days doesn’t make Passover a favorite. However, as I do every year, I ate pizza and/or pasta at least once a day for 7 days leading up to the holiday so I would […]   Read More
Date: April 18, 2022

Strong Seasonals & HOTTTT Inflation

Today is the day before Good Friday which is a seasonally strong day for stocks with surprisingly low downside when the bulls do not show up. Additionally, Monday is tax day which is also a strong seasonal day for stocks. The only 1%+ down days (2) in the past 20 days occurred with the S&P 500 below its average price of the last 20, 50 and 200 days. Today, the S&P 500 lies in between the 50 and 20/200. A […]   Read More
Date: April 14, 2022

Inflation Has Peaked

After a textbook thrust off of the March lows the stock market has not behaved well this month. Recall that the masses were beating their chest how strong April usually is for stocks. The last two days have not been pretty for the bulls, especially in the NASDAQ 100, and they do not have much leeway left for stocks to not turn ugly again. The bulls need to step up in the here and now which the odds still favor. […]   Read More
Date: April 13, 2022

Markets on Defensive – Oil Bear Market Rages On

Stocks return from the weekend the same way they began the weekend, on the defensive. After closing above the highest levels seen in February and sucking in investors, the stock market promptly reversed and is now pulling back again. The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 are mild so far, but the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 are deeper and more concerning. The technology sector just trades very heavy as interest rates continue to soar on the long […]   Read More
Date: April 11, 2022

Brainard Should Resign

Yesterday, I wrote about the little pullback in stocks. That was before Fed head Lael Brainard threw a big bucket of cold water on the markets. Brainard is usually in the dovish camp and was often mentioned as a replacement for Jay Powell if the liberals had their way with President Biden. Recall, she was widely considered as the front runner for Secretary of the Treasury if Hillary Clinton won in 2016. She’s certainly no hawk when it comes to […]   Read More
Date: April 7, 2022

A Little Pullback for Stocks

It wasn’t the ending UCONN Nation was hoping for in Minneapolis, but the best team all year with the best player all year won the national championship. UCONN was a M.A.S.H. unit all season and that carried right into the final buzzer. With another array of high school All-Americans coming to Storrs in a few short months, I have no doubt the team will be in Dallas this time next year. FYI, I am scheduled to join Maria Bartiromo on […]   Read More
Date: April 5, 2022

Late Day Plunge to End The Month & Quarter

Greetings from the Ice Box of America, Minnesota, where it is surprisingly sunny and nice. I can’t decide if ice fishing, curling or the Mall of America is our on the docket for the weekend. With the month and quarter-end on Thursday we certainly saw some portfolio games in the last hour although they were not of the usual bullish variety. Check out the right side of the chart below. You can see the late day plunge that was essentially […]   Read More
Date: April 1, 2022