A Few Green Shoots But For How Long?
What a week it has been! And there is still one day left although I will go out on a limb and say that Friday will look nothing like Wednesday or Thursday. On Wednesday the Fed raised rates by 1/2%, something everyone knew was coming. In my special Fed piece, I said that we would see a juiced post-2pm rally because of the selloff leading up to the meeting. Juiced was an understatement. Stocks soared in the last two hours […]
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Date: May 6, 2022
***Buckle Up Boys & Girls – Special Fed Meeting Update***
The model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Given the correction there is extra juice behind the model for post 2pm. Stocks are supposed to rally and I will add the word “strongly”. Today is the Fed day everyone has been waiting for. The day the Fed finally takes real action to combat inflation and slow down an economy that shrunk by 1.4% in Q1. Yes. You read that right. Jay Powell & […]
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Date: May 4, 2022
Lots of Market Worsts
Horrible week Horrible month Horrible year Lots of Market Worsts A new video is posted.
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Date: May 2, 2022
Negative GDP Growth Already?
Coming in to 2022 one of my main economic themes was slowing growth without recession. That would be accompanied by decelerating earnings growth and finally a blink by the Fed late in the year. On Thursday we got a first glimpse at Q1 GDP which came in at -1.4%, well below estimates of +1%. Yes; I know that people will rationalize it away because it was “inventory”, but facts are facts. I did not see the economy shrinking this early […]
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Date: April 30, 2022
OUCH!
Coming into the week after a drubbing last Friday there were strong winds blowing to begin the week. History suggested more selling on Monday with a likely attempt by the bulls to step and turn things around on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the opposite happened and Tuesday pushed prices to bottom end of the danger zone. Most of the major stock market indices are getting very close to the lowest levels seen in February and March. Frankly, that is not good for […]
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Date: April 27, 2022
Another Shot Down & Rally
The stock market had a very rough end to the week, falling more than 5% from Thursday’s high to Friday’s close, ending with a 2.5% down day on Friday. That’s significant. Let’s unpack each number a little. Thursday to Friday collapses usually lead to one more big decline on Monday. There have only been a few instances to the contrary. However, down 2.5% Friday usually lead to a rally above Friday’s close with in the next week. The S&P 500 […]
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Date: April 25, 2022
1994 & 2018 Still Offer the Best Clues on What Lies Ahead – Dow 40,000
A new video is posted. 1994 & 2018 Still Offer the Best Clues on What Lies Ahead – Dow 40,000
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Date: April 24, 2022
Still Sloppy, Choppy & Frustrating
Stocks staged an impressive rally on Turnaround Tuesday, however we still did not see volume in stocks going up overwhelm that in stocks going down. The price action was strong and leadership was powerful. But remember, it was one single day. And for those operating on the thesis that this is a bear market, those kinds of rallies can and occur often. I am not one of them, but it should be said. Buying strength and selling weakness is tough […]
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Date: April 20, 2022
Bulls Approaching The Danger Zone
Because of the holiday-shortened week last week, I wasn’t planning on a Thursday update, but I quickly cobbled one together. In my haste, I did not wish everyone celebrating, a Happy Passover and Easter. I hope yours was meaningful if you observed. Going without gluten for 8 days doesn’t make Passover a favorite. However, as I do every year, I ate pizza and/or pasta at least once a day for 7 days leading up to the holiday so I would […]
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Date: April 18, 2022
Strong Seasonals & HOTTTT Inflation
Today is the day before Good Friday which is a seasonally strong day for stocks with surprisingly low downside when the bulls do not show up. Additionally, Monday is tax day which is also a strong seasonal day for stocks. The only 1%+ down days (2) in the past 20 days occurred with the S&P 500 below its average price of the last 20, 50 and 200 days. Today, the S&P 500 lies in between the 50 and 20/200. A […]
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Date: April 14, 2022
