Dizzying Week Ahead
With the biggest earnings week of the season including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and UPS, the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and first look at Q2 GDP on Thursday, this is going to be a super busy week. Heading into the weekend, S&P 4000 or so looked to be a logical pause point for the stock market as I wrote here. Stocks have had a nice bounce off the June bottom and a breather will not be the worst thing in […]
Read More
Date: July 25, 2022
Bulls Firmly in Control But 4000 Should Start Pause
The stock market is having a good week. The nasty reversal on Monday didn’t even give the bears satisfaction for 24 hours. It turned out to be a trap and stocks immediately soared higher again. Below is an update of the chart I posted last week with price filling in for where I had my light blue lines to generally forecast the next few weeks. S&P 4000 is within reach and that would fill the remaining gap left from the […]
Read More
Date: July 22, 2022
Finally a Surge in Buying Interest
Don’t look now, but the bulls have scored two big up days in the last three days with an intervening reversal on Monday. We are finally seeing a surge in buying interest as the many of the major indices attempt to exceed their late June highs. If successful that would be higher highs and higher lows. If I am wrong and the bear market is about to resume we should see immediate failure by the bulls. The S&P 500 is […]
Read More
Date: July 20, 2022
The News is Awful
The news this week has been putrid, like Tiger Woods’ golf at the British Open. CPI was hot. PPI was hot. Talk has turned to a full 1% rate hike by the Fed on July 27th. Bank earnings hasn’t been very good so far except for Citibank. Yet, as I write this before lunch the S&P 500 is down a little more than 1% this week. The NASDAQ 100 is down even less. With all that bad news, the casual […]
Read More
Date: July 15, 2022
6 Smart Strategies for High Net Worth Retirement Planning
High net worth (HNW) families such as yours face unique challenges, and opportunities, in the years leading up to retirement. You require sophisticated planning that addresses the complexities that inevitably accompany affluence, from tax strategies to estate plans. It’s critical to partner with the right professional financial advisor, someone with the knowledge and experience to customize solutions for your unique circumstances. And a friendly, caring attitude wouldn’t hurt, either. Here are six elements of an overall strategy that map out […]
Read More
Date: July 14, 2022
Feeling HOT, HOT HOT
On Tuesday I saw a tweet quoting someone in the Biden Administration as saying that today’s inflation data had “stale” energy prices in it. To me that meant he had already seen the report and was prepping the markets and people for a hot CPI today. The stock market hung in nicely on Tuesday until the lunchtime lull turned into the afternoon plunge. All in all, it still wasn’t an awful day. The government released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) […]
Read More
Date: July 13, 2022
Staving Off Recession, For Now
On Friday the government released June employment data and revised prior months with real data, not the algo they use in real time. The economy created 372,000 new jobs well beyond expectations of 250,000 new jobs. However, April and May were revised lowed by 74,000. Wages gained 5% year over year. All in all this was another stellar report on the surface. However, markets now seem to be in the good news is bad news regime as a stronger economy […]
Read More
Date: July 11, 2022
Time for a Pause or Mild Pullback?
The stock market has had a nice little rally over the past week. It still needs to clear some upside to see that defined higher highs and higher lows, but let’s not be greedy here. The rally hasn’t exactly been powerful or overwhelmingly strong. So far, it just looks like a bounce from A low but not THE low. These bounces can persist for days, weeks or months depending on how long it takes for investors to believe again. I […]
Read More
Date: July 8, 2022
Taking Stock as Q3 Begins – The Single Most Important Sign
As July, Q3 and 2H 2022 begin the financial markets remain volatile and likely to stay that way throughout Q3. Over the past month or so, I have been encouraged by the behavior in sectors that peaked first and led the decline, namely, software, biotech, innovation and China. Those groups continue to lead the nascent rally. As I keep mentioning, I love bonds, especially on a risk-adjusted basis through year-end. The rally off the low has been strong and certainly […]
Read More
Date: July 6, 2022
2022 a Redux of 2008?
A new video has been posted. Is 2022 a Repeat of 2008?
Read More
Date: July 5, 2022
Overusing “Good Riddance” & Inflation of July 4th Travel
Almost every month in 2022 I have used the words “good riddance” as the new month began. I used it when Q1 ended and now I am saying GOOD RIDDANCE to June, Q2 and 1H 2022. None have been easy. As the calendar turns to July, there are a number of seasonal crosscurrents. During the second year of first term presidents, the stock market remains unappealing during the summer and often sees a major bottom in September or October. The […]
Read More
Date: July 1, 2022
Bears Come Out of Hibernation
After we finally saw a nice week for the bulls last week, the bears decided enough was enough and sold the opening in a big way on Tuesday. I expect chatter to quickly turn to whether a new leg lower for the stock market has begun and how much deeper the bear market can go. The best things you can say about Tuesday are that small and mid cap stocks did not lead the market lower and the NYSE A/D […]
Read More
Date: June 29, 2022
Why “Set It and Forget It” May Be the Wrong Investment Strategy
Please don’t shoot the messenger, but I’m here to tell you that, while setting it and forgetting it (SIFI) can sometimes be a generally helpful strategy, it is not ALWAYS best. In this article, I’ll describe how SIFI works and seven ways it falls short, especially if you manage your portfolio on your own. I’ll finish by showing how a fiduciary advisor can provide the benefits of SIFI without the downsides. What Is Set It and Forget It Investing? […]
Read More
Date: June 28, 2022
The Pummeled are Leading
The bulls finally won a week. It took four weeks for a victory, and they were able to recover the full losses from the week before. That was no easy task! The stock market remains in bounce mode and the bulls should have more firepower to use in the coming days and weeks. Keep in mind that this is the last week of June and the end of Q2. Although there are significant losses in both stocks and bonds, we […]
Read More
Date: June 27, 2022
A Bull Market in Bears
Well look at that, three days this week the stock market is gapping up at the open. I would be surprised if the bears were able to thwart the bulls at all today. What a difference from a few weeks ago when it gapped down four straight days and in much greater magnitude. The bull have had a nice week. It’s the first up week of what has been a brutally tough month (and quarter and year) for the bulls. […]
Read More
Date: June 24, 2022
Wednesday a Key Day – Extreme Bearish Sentiment
The markets returned from the holiday weekend with an absence of sellers. The bulls had a big day although not as strong as price indicated. By that, I mean the number of stocks going up on the day and the volume associated with those stocks was not as powerful as price said it should be. Yes; I could be nitpicking, but after such a significant decline I want to see more progress. Interestingly, I read a thread on Twitter about […]
Read More
Date: June 22, 2022
The Big Mistake Richard Made Managing His Retirement
We’ll call him Richard so as to not embarrass him. Richard is a great guy, but sometimes he can’t seem to get out of his own way. Richard’s made many mistakes over the years, including: Buying a timeshare Investing in a family member’s startup Taking Social Security benefits before age 70 Failing to diversify his stock portfolio But the biggest mistake in Richard’s personal finance strategy was to utilize the services of a broker-dealer. B/Ds tend to focus more narrowly […]
Read More
Date: June 21, 2022
This Year Ain’t Easy But It’s NOT 2008
FYI. The financial markets are closed on Monday in observance of Juneteenth. Stocks ticked ever so slightly higher to close another very challenging week for the bulls. It was also a quarterly expiration of futures and options which likely exacerbated the decline. From March 29th to May 12th the stock market experienced one of the strongest selling waves ever. More recently, the stock market saw four straight 1% down days ending on June 13th, also rivaling other periods for strength […]
Read More
Date: June 20, 2022
***SPECIAL Fed Update – The Fed Can’t Win – The Final Countdown***
The stock market model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a bigger move. Given the recent decline there could be a little more juice in that trade, but it would have been better had stocks fallen into Tuesday’s close. I joined my friend Tim Lammers and the morning team on Fox61 today to offer a primer on the Fed meeting and correct one of the biggest myths about the Fed. You can watch HERE. Driving […]
Read More
Date: June 15, 2022
Not The Scenario I Wanted – Answering Your Questions
***Please note that I have started and stopped this update a number of times since I am on the road, so please forgive the pieces that may be a little stale*** I want to start off by addressing a comment and answering a few questions. First, a number of folks emailed why I didn’t send out market updates last week. I did. I just didn’t send notification to the entire list. Remember, I try to publish on the blog on […]
Read More
Date: June 13, 2022
