Tech Back, Market Rangebound
Greetings from 38,000 feet where my wife and I are returning from a long weekend in CA for a wedding and some work. While the weather was cooler than normal, we still had golden sunshine every day and the sun got the best of me even though I wore sunblock 50. It was good to get away, but I always look forward to going home to my kids, my pets and my bed. The markets look to be picking up […]
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Date: May 24, 2021
They Don’t Make It Easy
The NASDAQ 100 came roaring back to life on Thursday. If you follow me on Twitter you saw that I tweeted about starting to see embryonic signs of this developing in real time on Wednesday. We started wading back into tech at that point, but I do not sense this is a multi-month opportunity just yet. In the short-term I can say that stocks revisited their low points from a week ago and they are trying to build a a […]
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Date: May 21, 2021
Is This The Big One? I am Coming Elizabeth!
When I left off, I opined that the pullback could be over and new highs would be up next. The only thing that bothered me was how stocks closed last Wednesday which would have been the low. After a few days of rally, the bears came back to work on Tuesday and Wednesday morning looks to be weak, at least early on. Ideally, I would like to see last Wednesday’s low prices exceeded and then have the bulls step up. […]
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Date: May 19, 2021
What Have I Done? 5 Retirement Decisions that are Permanent
It’s unfortunate, but as a financial advisor in New Haven County, I often talk to retirees after they’ve made a mistake with their retirement plans. Even more unfortunate, certain decisions cannot be undone. While there’s usually an opportunity to make up for a bad decision, it can be expensive both in time and money. It’s my personal goal to try to reach as many pre-retirees before these mistakes are made. Proper research and the help of a qualified financial advisor […]
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Date: May 17, 2021
Pullback Over – All Time Highs Up Next
Sorry I missed the Wednesday update folks. It has been crazy busy with client updates, onboarding new clients and speeding to watch the kids’ baseball and softball after market close. Oh yeah. And the markets have been giving us so many opportunities of late. I am also about to start my travels again, so I apologize in advance for what may be an irregular publishing schedule for some time. As most of you know, however, I spend all my time […]
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Date: May 14, 2021
Calendar Quiets – NASDAQ 100 Still Under Pressure
Last week at this time, the market was enjoying one the strongest seasonal days of the year in the first day of May. The ensuing four days of mild weakness looked good until Thursday and Friday when the bulls decided they had enough. The new week begins with some very, very mild seasonal weakness on the calendar. Nothing that will weigh too heavily. After that the seasonal trends are quiet. Looking at the major indices, we have the Dow Industrials […]
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Date: May 10, 2021
Mild Pullback Continues
The first trading day of May lived up to its billing as an up day. Additionally, the subsequent week is following history as a patch of seasonal weakness. It’s nice when the market follows history so well. For the past week, I have written several times about the stock market being tired and overdue for a pullback. That mild bout of weakness is here, but its magnitude depends on which index you view. The Dow Industrials have been the strongest […]
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Date: May 6, 2021
#1 Question Asked Since the Pandemic: Am I Invested Correctly Post-COVID-19?
Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic caused many investors to alter their portfolios, often not to their long-term benefit. It’s certainly understandable to have wanted to do something in response to this unprecedented catastrophe. The problem is, as is often the case, that emotional responses often lead into unwise financial moves that must be corrected before they do permanent harm. This is especially true when it comes to retirement planning for high net worth individuals, because the more you’re investing, the more […]
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Date: May 4, 2021
LOTS of Seasonal Factors of Today & Month
Today is the first trading day of May. I wish someone told Mother Nature that as I had on long underwear and two fleece layers at my son’s baseball games on Saturday. Yet on Sunday, I had shorts and a tee shirt on as we did yard work all afternoon. Spring in New England. Stocks did not close April well, but they still finished sharply higher for the month. April was definitely a fun month all around with tech leading […]
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Date: May 3, 2021
Stop Touting the News
I can’t keep track of how many times I have said, it’s not what the news is, but rather, how stocks react. If there is one adage that has served me incredibly well in my 32 years in the business, it’s that one. Yet people continue to do the “but, but, but”. The market is usually right. Those who make it a methodology to fight it often end up in failure. There has been a dizzying number of Q1 earnings […]
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Date: April 30, 2021
Fed Day is Here and I am Not Celebrating
It’s Fed day and these meetings should all take on some significance going forward as Powell et al should begin to hint at less accommodation. However, the Fed learned their lesson in 2013 with the Taper Tantrum and will make sure the runway is long and clear. Although I have so been enjoying the fruits of their labor since last April and I assume clients and investors have as well, if I sat in Jay Powell’s seat, I would already […]
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Date: April 28, 2021
New Bulls Die Hard
While Friday was a really nice day for the bulls into about 3:30, the bears did manage to make a little noise into the weekend. Still, there were several constructive elements to the day. Market internals were strong and sector leadership was good. Additionally, the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 which had been lagging continued their recent wake up to power higher. Over the last week or so, I have offered that the stock market could begin a series of […]
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Date: April 26, 2021
Biden’s Cap Gains Plan a Disaster
I love when people ask me what could derail the market, any market for that matter. Lately, I have said it won’t be COVID or a third world nation with nukes. However, it could certainly be a monetary policy pivot shift by the Fed or definitely be a fiscal or tax policy change in DC. On Thursday we learned about the Biden administration’s proposed seminal change in capital gains taxes to a maximum of 43.40% for the highest income earners. […]
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Date: April 23, 2021
Time for the Bulls to Step Up
Stocks have now seen back to back down days with pre-market activity pointing to red this morning. The themes have been the same with the small cap Russell 2000 leading the way lower since it peaked on March 15. Remember that the other major indices saw their highs last week. Today should be an interesting day. With a lower open anticipated, I would be a buyer of things that have been hit harder of late, even if only for a […]
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Date: April 21, 2021
How Do You Eat an Elephant?
We begin the new week with 7 yards of fresh mulch still sitting in my driveway, down from the 8 that was dumped on Saturday. It’s a big pile. How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time. How do you spread all that mulch? One wheelbarrow at a time. As I tell my kids when they complain about helping, that’s why we had you guys, to be put to work. For the past few weeks, stocks have […]
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Date: April 19, 2021
Retirement Planning Connecticut: Staggering Benefits and Retirement with Your Spouse
Some say that a part of the American dream is for a couple to retire at the same time and enjoy their Golden Years doing everything together. The American reality may be something different. How to arrange your finances so that you, as a couple, don’t outlive your money and still have an enjoyable retirement lifestyle can be a complicated process. You cannot ignore the psychological effects that can accompany retirement, effects that can multiply if you both retire at […]
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Date: April 19, 2021
Two Small Cracks in the Pavement
The bulls just won’t give up. It’s been super impressive with some of the most powerful momentum I have ever seen. But, it’s not unprecedented. When I look more closely I can find a few small cracks in the pavement which I will review today. As you know, I start my analysis with the major stock market indices. They are mostly in gear to the upside. However, the Russell 2000 which is for small companies is lagging behind. Below on […]
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Date: April 16, 2021
Big Market Day – Hard to Find New Buys
It’s such a big day today. First, we have one of the highest profile IPOs of all-time coming out today on the NASDAQ in Coinbase, the cryptocurrency supermarket. All I hear are people just gushing about the company and saying that no one should worry about its Dotcom’esque valuation. One analyst is calling for $600 while a pundit was in the four figures. Good thing we don’t have epic greed and euphoria! Q1 earnings season also kicks off today with […]
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Date: April 14, 2021
Bulls Large and In Charge as Inflation Runs HOT
Friday was yet another win for the bulls although the market’s internals were nothing to celebrate. They weren’t negative, but they were less than inspiring. This has been an on again, off again thing, but I won’t start to worry unless it becomes consistent. When I look at the indices the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 are behaving the best, followed by the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 400. The Russell 2000 (small caps) is lagging and looking like it wants […]
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Date: April 12, 2021
Tech Back In Vogue as Earnings Season Set to Begin
Stocks and the financial markets continue to behave well. While we remain in the world of epic greed and euphoria it is still balanced off by a solid market foundation and upward momentum. Eventually one will fade which will lead to an outsized move in one direction. My strong sense is that it will be the latter and a 10%+ correction will ensue down the road. Although April is only a week old we have seen a reversion back to […]
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Date: April 7, 2021
