Not Looking Like a Full-Fledged Correction
On the surface Friday looked like one of the those “puke” days when anything and everything go down. It was an ugly day, but I didn’t see evidence of investors in full panic mode nor selling at any price just to get out and relieve the pain. Friday looked like the makings of an internal or momentum low where selling and would be at its worst for this decline. Of course, one day later, it’s only a guess until there […]
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Date: February 3, 2020
Trading Range Being Established
As I have been discussing, the stock was longing for a reason to decline and it seems to have found it in Coronavirus. Whether it was that or something else, stocks were much in need of a pullback. As you know, sentiment had reached the frothiest of frothy levels, but the foundation remained solid. That usually leads to your garden variety short, sharp pullback, to at least get sentiment back to neutral. I don’t think we have the set up […]
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Date: January 31, 2020
Media Day, Fed, Coronavirus & More Today
I am excited to join Yahoo Finance’s On The Move from 10:20am to 10:30am discussing the Coronavirus’ impact on the markets and if the worst is behind the markets. After that, the TD Ameritrade Network is next to give a market update and offer some stock picks. I have to admit; it’s been tough to find fresh ideas after such a strong rally since October. I keep waiting and waiting for the traditional energy names to set up, but that’s […]
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Date: January 29, 2020
The Excuse to Go Down
Last Friday, after what seemed like Coronavirus avoidance, stocks reversed sharply to the downside. Been there before. Got a tee shirt. One day patterns look amazing on a chart when they work, but foolish when they don’t. Today, it looks like we will see a nasty down opening which most are blaming on the spread of the virus over the weekend although some have wrongly opined that this is all about Bernie Sanders’ rise in Iowa. That’s just nonsense. Markets […]
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Date: January 27, 2020
Bulls Ignoring Corona et al
Good Friday Morning! Sorry I have been AWOL this week. Between the holiday on Monday and being in Boston on Wednesday, my schedule has been jam packed. Amazingly, with full on impeachment and the Coronovirus, stocks did not even hiccup this week. And that’s still with an historic level of greedy sentiment that just keeps on getting more extreme. One thing is for sure and that’s something I have said forever; price is the final arbiter. That means that nothing […]
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Date: January 24, 2020
Investor Behavior is now Very Dangerous
It seems like every single day stocks up higher, pullback and then rally into the close. It’s been one of those truly historic runs since December 3 where you would be hard-pressed to find any weakness. Those heavily invested are just sitting back, enjoying the gains and smiling. Those on the outside looking in are very frustrated and anxious to buy any discernible pullback at all. While we mark all of our strategies on a daily basis, I rarely give […]
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Date: January 17, 2020
That Was Quick
On Monday I wrote about a low risk opportunity for the bears with very well defined risk. Market sentiment had reached an historic extreme as investors had become beyond bullish and giddy. They are downright greedy. Market greed isn’t corrected quickly nor painlessly. It normally takes a sharp decline in stocks to create some fear and panic that things have changed. The problem with playing this is that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. With that […]
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Date: January 15, 2020
An Opportunity for the Bears
Since mid-November, I have often discussed sentiment in the stock market. Plainly put, investors have been very confident to the point of being greedy and giddy to an historic extreme. We last saw that behavior in January 2018 which led to a 13% stock market decline to resolve the condition. Of course, there were other factors that led to that decline, like some cracks in the market’s foundation, something I am not seeing today. When I have a little more […]
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Date: January 13, 2020
Early January Indicator Calls for More Upside While Oil & Gold Hit Peaks
With the much ballyhooed Santa Claus Rally out of the way which I really reduced to meaningless in the grand scheme of things, the media has turned its attention to the Early January Indicator (EJI). As Yale Hirsch of Stock Trader’s Almanac fame discovered, as goes the first five days of January, so goes the rest of the year. Since 1990 when the EJI is positive, stocks end the year higher 78% of the time versus 74% for any random […]
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Date: January 9, 2020
Santa Called. Bulls Excited on Wall. Could There be a Fall?
Although it wasn’t much for the bulls to celebrate, Santa Claus did call to Broad & Wall. The last five days of 2019 plus the first two days of 2020 finished slightly in the green for the &P 500 by 0.34%. The media would have you believe that this 7 day trading period now holds untold fortunes for stock investors versus any old random year. That’s simply not the case, even when giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt […]
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Date: January 6, 2020
A Little Taste for the Bears – Santa Still in Play
Stocks roared out of the gate to begin 2020 and it certainly felt like the masses were buying hand over fist. However, let’s remember that this is a holiday-shortened week and I don’t think everyone is back to their normal schedules. With stocks closing at their highs for the day, it’s very unlikely that any peak of importance was seen. Several times last week I mentioned my last 5 and Santa Claus Rally research. The last 5 was reduced to […]
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Date: January 3, 2020
My New Year’s Message
With the end of 2019 signaling not only year-end but also the conclusion of a decade, I am reminded of something my grandmother said to me every year sine I was 7. Besides letting me know not to waste my younger, more active years, she always told me that the older you get, the faster time goes by. It took me a long time to really understand and grasp that. I remember lying on the floor in the kitchen growing […]
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Date: January 2, 2020
3224 the Key Number for Santa
Friday’s action in the stock market wasn’t the victory the bulls were claiming. After another higher opening, the bears made a tiny stand and managed to fend off higher prices for a few hours. That’s about all you can say besides there were more stocks declining than advancing. I know; I am grasping at straws into year-end. However, make no mistake about the historic sentiment readings we are currently seeing now. This is the polar opposite of what we saw […]
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Date: December 30, 2019
All Looks Terrific But Be Careful
I hope everyone had a great Christmas, Hanukah, Kwanzaa and Boxing Day! As I wrote about the other day, the Santa Claus Rally and last five days of the year are not the absolute layup the pundits keep predicting. In strong years, the last five days trade is not even a coin flip, however, Santa still comes calling about 70% of the time. That puts added bullish weight on the first two days of 2020 if the last five of […]
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Date: December 27, 2019
The Masses are Wrong! The Truth About Santa and the Last 5 Days of 2019
Let me begin by wishing all those who celebrate a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukah! Historically, the last two weeks of December is one of the most favorable times of the year and that lasts through early January. The traditional Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is scheduled to begin on Christmas Eve and last until the close on January 3rd. In other words, the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year. Remember the old […]
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Date: December 23, 2019
Stocks CREEP Higher – Waiting on Santa
Let’s start this article with the big picture. The bull market is alive and reasonably well and will live on into 2020. Next year will likely present some challenges, but we will cross that bridge when I start to work on my 2020 Fearless Forecast. One thing is for absolute sure in my opinion; there will be fireworks in 2020! For roughly a month, mostly on the blog, I had been discussing a stock market that was a little ahead […]
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Date: December 22, 2019
2019 A LOT Different from 2018 – Fedex Vomits on Itself
Stocks have really quieted down of late, but the bulls have been relentless. Each and every day seems like a slow drift higher. What has historically been a very reliable soft patch into mid-December is not arriving in 2019 or if I wanted to claim victory like those who can never be wrong, I would just say the two-day decline early in the month was it. That’s not exactly what I was looking for, but you always have to roll […]
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Date: December 18, 2019
Bulls Powering Through Short-Term Fatigue
With the Fed, UK elections, tariff deadline and impeachment seemingly all out of the way, stocks continue to forge ahead, even in the face of some short-term fatigue. That’s obviously bullish in and of itself. As I mentioned last week, it is very tough to see any kind of measurable selling this late in such a strong year. Something would really have to come out of left field. I have spent a good deal of time on small caps of […]
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Date: December 16, 2019
Small Cap Value FINALLY Breaks Out – Stocks Tired
Going in to this week, the markets had four big issue to deal with. The Fed, UK election, Dec 15 tariffs and impeachment. I really thought one of the first three would have caused one of those 1-3 day shakeouts into the usual mid-December low this or next week. That certainly hasn’t been the case and as I have said all along, I think impeachment is a just a media distraction and nothing to take seriously for the economy nor […]
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Date: December 13, 2019
Fed to Stand Pat – Still Operating on Powell’s Dramatic Change
What to Expect Today The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to do absolutely nothing today at 2:00pm regarding interest rates. The market is expecting nothing and nothing it will get. Any other action would be a total and complete shocker. In fact, at this point, the market isn’t pricing in any FOMC action until the very end of 2020 where a rate cut is expected. Keep in mind that market expectations even a quarter out don’t amount to […]
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Date: December 11, 2019
