Bears Knocking on Door Again
The major stock market indices are under pressure for the second day in a row, potentially threatening to close below last Friday’s low which is a line in the sand I spoke about on Monday. We will see what happens after 4pm. The selling continues to look orderly and there is not much internal damage being done to the market so far. Semis and banks concern me the most as the bull market can survive without either but not both. […]
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Date: May 4, 2016
Bulls then Bears and Finally Bulls
The stock market had a nice little reversal on Friday as the bulls fended off morning weakness to close well off the lows. While I remain in the pullback camp and see lower prices ahead, the bulls should have enough ammunition to mount a small rally here. If Friday’s lows are closed below anytime this week, I would become slightly more concerned than I already am regarding the short-term, but I don’t think that’s the most likely scenario here. On […]
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Date: May 2, 2016
Apple’s Collapse as the Market Bears Reign
Just over a week ago and one day after most of the major market indices peaked, I posted a piece entitled Reigning in Bullishness where for the first time since the rally began in February, I tempered my enthusiasm. I couched my negative comments with more sanguine words that I absolutely do not believe the bull market has topped. This looks like a routine, normal and healthy pullback, but also the deepest decline since the rally began. It’s been a […]
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Date: April 29, 2016
The “Secret” Reason Yellen Doesn’t Want to Raise Rates. Special Fed Meeting Update
I believe there is a “secret” behind the Fed being slow to hike short-term interest rates. I will get to that in a minute. Today’s Meeting Let’s start with non-controversial items first. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee concludes their two day meeting with an announcement at 2 pm that interest rates will not change today. That’s what the markets are expecting. There has been all kinds of hot air coming from several Fed officials that rates need to rise […]
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Date: April 27, 2016
Apple & The Fed. A Volatile Concoction…
The FOMC begins their regularly scheduled two-day meeting today. Typically, stocks are quiet with a small upward bias. However, Apple reports earnings after the bell and that almost always provides some movement as the tech behemoth has an outsized weighting in the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ 100. I have absolutely no opinion on how their earnings will be and I really only care about how the market reacts anyway. The fact that it has sold off into earnings gives […]
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Date: April 26, 2016
Reigning in Bullishness
It has certainly been one sensational run for the bulls since February 11th. Hopefully, you have not only enjoyed it but profited from it as well. I know I could not have pounded the table any harder at the bottom to buy at a time when CNBC and Fox Business only paraded the doom and gloom crowd with calls for a new bear market and a repeat of 2008. And while I do not believe the final highs are in, […]
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Date: April 21, 2016
Crushing the Doubters
I know I must sound like a broken record, but boy, have the bulls been tough to fight. Just when the bears think a deeper pullback has started, the bulls step up again and power stocks higher. After an unexpected turnaround on Monday from the early weakness after the lack of OPEC production cuts, stocks are pausing once again. Earnings season is in full swing and we have heard time and time again how this is the worst earnings since […]
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Date: April 20, 2016
All-Time Highs On the Way, But…
After a 24 hour trip to Houston, I am happily back home.Thanks to the Houston MTA for hosting me and inviting me to speak at their chapter meeting. I really enjoyed my time there. It was also good to see clients, colleagues and friends, all in 24 hours! When I look back over my posts since the bottom, there has been one common theme. The bulls are in control. Higher prices to follow. Expect brief and mild pullbacks. Continue to […]
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Date: April 14, 2016
Give the Bears a Break
Last Friday, I wrote about stocks looking a little sleepy, but that higher prices would eventually prevail. For the 6th time since the rally began on February 11th, the stock market is pulling back. It’s normal, healthy and expected. No need to panic. The bears should be out in force shortly with calls of another correction or resumption of the bear market. But let’s give them a break; they have had so little to celebrate for almost two months. The […]
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Date: April 5, 2016
History Says Higher, but Stocks a Little Sleepy
Stocks ended the quarter just shy of fresh highs and booked a huge 6%+ return for March. Historically, that portends more upside over the first week of April. Speaking of April, it is one of the strongest months of the year. Most of the long-term studies I have done and read indicate higher prices 6 and 12 months out. On the flip side, stocks have looked a little sleepy over the past two days and today is the monthly release […]
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Date: April 1, 2016
Bye Bye March & Q1
Last day of the month. Last day of the quarter. What a ride it’s been although if you fell asleep on New Year’s Eve and woke up today, you might conclude it was a quiet three months with the Dow up a few hundred and points and the S&P up 1%. As we all know, it was anything but dull. March is on pace to return more than 6% after an historically weak start to the year. This kind of […]
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Date: March 31, 2016
And the 5th Pullback since The Bottom Ends
On March 21, I penned a piece calling for the 5th pullback since the rally began. I used words like “brief” and “mild” to describe what I thought was coming before the next rally began. As with the previous four pullbacks, all we saw was essentially two days of slight weakness before the bulls roared back. And roar back they did. Right before Janet Yellen released her speech on Tuesday, I did an interview with CNBC India regarding the Fed […]
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Date: March 30, 2016
The 5th Pullback Since The Bottom is Here
Repeating what I said on Friday, stocks now have a mild headwind post the Fed announcement which last through this week. Couple that with the fifth short-term overbought market since the rally began on February 11 and you have the ingredients for a small pullback or pause to refresh. The rally isn’t over. Three of the four key sectors (except banks) are dominating and can still be bought on weakness. While all of the major indices remain strong, I am […]
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Date: March 21, 2016
Still Laughing at the Bears
Yet ANOTHER solid week by the bulls! Chatting with my peers who also pounded the table to buy at the Jan and Feb lows, we all find it amazing how revisionist history is playing out and suddenly those who were the most bearish at the bottom and during the rally are now supposedly fully invested. Incredible how price movement along can change investor sentiment! I feel for those who have largely ignored scoffer at this historic rally. One thing about […]
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Date: March 18, 2016
***SPECIAL Fed Meeting Alert… A March Surprise?***
Whether you like Dolly Parton’s, “Here You Come Again”, Kenny Loggins’, “This is It”, or Europe’s, “The Final Countdown”, it’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day again. Boy did those 6 weeks fly by. And the markets have basically done a 180 since January 27 with the Dow going from vertically down to up and advancing from 15,940 to 17,250. Yellen’s Cover for Standing Pat is Gone After raising rates in December, the Fed prepared the markets for four […]
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Date: March 16, 2016
FOMC & Options Expiration the Themes for the Week
The Dow, S&P 500 and S&P 400 enter the new week at their highest levels of 2016. That surprised me when I did my weekend review. I would bet that most people think stocks are much lower than they actually are. Last week was another big victory for the bulls, much to my delight. Day in and day out since February 11, investors have disavowed and laughed at this rally. However, all we have seen in historic participation and strength […]
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Date: March 14, 2016
Bears Left in the Dust
While I did not see the magnitude of the January decline, I did call the January bottom in real time as the internal or momentum low. From there, I saw a reflex rally for a few weeks that would be followed by another decline to revisit or retest the same levels seen in January before a much better, stronger and more long-lasting could begin. While the bears screamed about further collapse and bought more bottled water and canned goods, I […]
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Date: March 9, 2016
2008 Price Analog Put to Bed
In the past few issues, I discussed a widely followed price analog to 2008. Countless times, I have pounded the table that 2016 is ABSOLUTELY NOT 2008. Price was just following that path, but I expected the analog to break down much sooner than later. Over the past few weeks, it certainly has as you can see below. The January decline in 2016 mirrored that of 2008, almost to the day, as did the rally out of the January low. […]
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Date: March 8, 2016
Market Stretched in Short-Term But Intermediate-Term Remains Bright
During strong initiations off a bottom, price just powers higher seemingly day after day without much pause. The most beaten down stocks rally the most and the bears claim it’s all “short covering” and doomed to fail. But it doesn’t. Slowly,one by one, the bears stop disavowing the rally and become silent. Each short-term overbought condition hears some renewed calls for more downside, but typically there’s nothing more than a few day pullback of 1-3%. Since the current rally began […]
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Date: March 7, 2016
GOP Ganging Up on Trump… AGAIN
One of the great things about flying JetBlue is that every seat has a TV so I was able to watch the GOP debate on one channel and the UCONN men’s game on another as I flew to Reno. Boy was that debate painful! Did anyone learn anything new? It is clear to me that the Rubio and Cruz camps got together and agreed to a moratorium on attacking each other so they could collectively attack Donald Trump. They must […]
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Date: March 4, 2016
