Bears Still Struggling to Make Progress
Happy snow day to those of you in the northeast! For several weeks, there have been all kinds of studies which indicate that the risk/reward for stocks is skewed to the downside over the coming weeks and few months. The same can be said of some daily studies. When I say skewed, I mean favors a typical and normal pullback of 2-5%. Yet each time the bulls look tired, they somehow prevent the bears from making any progress. In the […]
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Date: February 9, 2017
BONUS Surprise: Inner Circle Shakeup
Bonus #2 – Inner circle shakeup Given how Donald Trump’s campaign went and how much turnover there was at the top, that theme continues straight to the 2018 mid-term election. At least 3 cabinet members will be replaced by then and another one or two from the rest of the inner circle. Some will be asked to leave while others will become frustrated with either the president or acrimony in Congress. Steve Bannon, Kellyanne Conway, Sean Spicer, Wilbur Ross, Steve […]
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Date: February 8, 2017
BONUS Surprise. Janet Yellen Reappointed Fed Chair
#9 – Janet Yellen reappointed Fed Chair Donald Trump attacked and criticized the Fed and Chair Janet Yellen during the campaign. He blamed her and them for many of our economic woes along with the stock market being on the edge of a cliff about to plummet. Once 20,000 was hit, Trump changed his tune dramatically, exclaiming how great it was to achieve that milestone with more upside ahead. As Yellen’s term as chair expires at the end of 2018, […]
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Date: February 7, 2017
Donald Trump is a One Term President But…
1 – Donald Trump is not on the ticket against the Democrats’ candidate in 2020 I find it very hard to believe that Donald Trump will want to run again in 2020. While 74 is by no means old, he will have literally done it all by that time. I think there is a binary path to his party’s nomination in 2020. First, things go so well that Trump opts to leave on top, securing his legacy with the country […]
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Date: February 6, 2017
Bulls Win Big on Friday But Still Not Ready
Very nice day for the bulls on Friday as the monthly jobs report was really the Goldilocks scenario. Not too strong and not too weak. The U.S. saw decent growth with some mild revisions lower but almost no wage inflation which caused expectations for a March rate hike by the Fed to decline to roughly 20%. I would not hang my hat on the Fed staying put in March. There are many data points between now and then and I […]
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Date: February 6, 2017
Trump and Putin Have a Falling Out
2 – Trump and Putin have a falling out This is probably the least surprising of all on the list. One of my theories is that Trump has been so pro-Putin because Obama and Hillary Clinton were such adversaries of Russia. It was yet another good way to differentiate during the campaign. The U.S. and Russia’s interests are so inversely aligned that it would be almost impossible for the two countries not to have a falling out by 2020. I […]
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Date: February 6, 2017
Moderate Justice Chosen for the Supreme Court
3 – Moderate Justice chosen for the Supreme Court Whether Donald Trump has a fight with the GOP or not or if the President finds common ground with the Democrats, a moderate Justice for the Supreme Court will be nominated from one of the judges whom the GOP already approved of at a lower court. All indications are that Trump’s first nomination to the bench, due in early February, will have similar views to that of Antonin Scalia whom he […]
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Date: February 3, 2017
Trump and Chuck Schumer Kumbaya
4 – Trump and Chuck Schumer kumbaya As recently as 2011, Donald Trump may have been or was aligned with the Democrats. He and Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, used to be pals in New York City. If President Trump and the GOP have a falling out, it’s very likely that Chuck Schumer and some of the Democrats will fill that void, especially if it’s during a period where a Supreme Court Justice vacancy needs to be filled. If you […]
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Date: February 2, 2017
Trump and the GOP Fall Out of love
5 – Trump and the GOP fall out of love It was a vicious campaign that saw allegiances move all over the place. In the end, after attacking a good number of his fellow candidates, Donald Trump reconciled in one way, shape or form with every single one of them. Given Trump’s personality and populist and nationalistic tone, there is a good chance that Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell and the GOP end up at odds with President Trump over the […]
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Date: February 2, 2017
Not All Cabinet Nominees Confirmed
6 – Not all cabinet nominees confirmed Another surprise that seems counterintuitive since the Senate is controlled by the GOP. No president since Ronald Reagan saw all of their cabinet nominees confirmed. Every single president had at least on nominee who was rejected, John Tower in 1989 under Bush 41 or withdrawn, all of the rest since Clinton. In fact, Clinton, Bush 43 and Obama all had at least two nominees withdraw their name. While Betsy DeVos seems to be […]
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Date: February 1, 2017
Strong Fed Trend Active Today
It doesn’t feel like it’s been six weeks since the December meeting when the FOMC raised interest rates 1/4%, but it really has. Can we get time to stand still for a month or so in order for us all to catch up? With President Trump occupying the headlines on a daily basis, Janet Yellen & Co. must be ecstatic that they out of the limelight and crosshairs for that matter. Today concludes the Fed’s two day meeting and expectations […]
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Date: February 1, 2017
Bear Market in Stocks by 2020
7 – Bear market in stocks by 2020. The U.S. stock market has been driving ahead since March 2009. From a low of 6500 in the Dow to 18,300 on Election Day, Barack Obama has seen one of the best stock markets of any president in history. It’s a bit ironic that the president who most railed against wealth inequality enjoyed one of the greatest booms ever and couldn’t really celebrate that. Bear markets come in two forms: with and […]
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Date: January 31, 2017
Economy Sees Recession During the Next Four Years
The Friday before the election, our quantitative election model forecasted that Donald Trump was going to be the 45th President of the United States. I didn’t believe it myself, yet I didn’t question whether the model was broken. After all, it’s accuracy rate has been higher than 80%, correcting predicting every election since 1996. After a barrage of media interviews where some questioned whether I was just a shill for Mr. Trump, the election came and he was in fact […]
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Date: January 31, 2017
Top 8 Shocking Surprises Plus 2 Bonuses Under Donald Trump
The Friday before the election, our quantitative election model forecasted that Donald Trump was going to be the 45th President of the United States. I didn’t believe it myself, yet I didn’t question whether the model was broken. After all, it’s accuracy rate has been higher than 80%, correcting predicting every election since 1996. After a barrage of media interviews where some questioned whether I was just a shill for Mr. Trump, the election came and he was in fact […]
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Date: January 31, 2017
Dow 20,000 Already Forgotten
Last week, the Dow hit my longstanding target of 20,000, first given on CNBC’s Squawk Box in 2010 just after I forecast that the Fed’s balance sheet would hit a staggering $5 trillion. If we see 5 consecutive closes above 20,000, the next upside target will be created. Since Dow 20K, it’s been even more Donald Trump and politics on the financial channels. I think the Q4 GDP report is now totally forgotten. Market sentiment had become a little frothy […]
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Date: January 30, 2017
Dow Breaking Out & Q4 GDP Miss the Last
After hitting yet another one of my upside targets, 20,000, the Dow has yet to pause. Five straight closes above 20,000 will open up new upside targets before the bull market ends. As you can see below, the Dow has been consolidating sideways since early December. That’s often referred to as a flat top or box. When prices finally exceed the flat top, they oftentimes see a spurt in the same direction. Although momentum is on the side of the […]
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Date: January 27, 2017
Bulls Wake Up and Attack
No sooner did the ink dry on Monday’s piece than the market quickly tossed aside my thinking for a bit more of a pullback before racing to new highs. Since December 13, four out five of the major stock market indices have been digesting post-election gains and pulling back in a very orderly fashion. Only the NASDAQ 100 has really moved meaningfully higher. After a morning of selling on Monday, the bull pushed stocks higher into the close. On Tuesday, […]
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Date: January 25, 2017
“Buy the Election, Sell the Inauguration”
That’s been a popular refrain over the past week as stocks continue in stall mode, basically since December 13. In fact, the Dow and Russell 2000 are now down on the new year. Only the NASDAQ 100 which I thought would go from laggard to leader has had the power to forge ahead in 2017. However, that index is now looking a bit tired and in need of a little rest which won’t be so bad. For most of the […]
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Date: January 23, 2017
Bulls & Bears Even But Opex Tilts Down
Bulls and bears come into the new week on equal footing, both still fighting it out in the trading range. The bulls have done nothing wrong to indicate anything more than a 3-5% pullback and the bears will have a lot to prove at that point. Since early December, the small cap Russell 2000 has lagged and the bulls are getting to that point where it’s time to step up. Clearly, the unpopular NASDAQ 100 has been the leadership index. […]
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Date: January 17, 2017
Bears Need to Act Quickly, But Bulls Won’t Make It Easy
After Thursday’s morning sell off the bears finally had something to latch on to. All they needed was to stave off any bull attempt to rally into the close so the bears could try and follow through on Friday morning. However, as pundits called for more weakness, stocks rallied all afternoon and into the close. Unless the bears can make some serious noise on Friday and undercut Thursday’s low, it looks like Dow 20,000 will be tested over the coming […]
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Date: January 13, 2017
