Heading into the Weekend
Some of the pop in volatility this week is starting to be wrung out as the markets close the week. On Thursday we saw a nice reversal across the board, however the internal numbers were nothing to write home about. Additionally, I would have much preferred to see the lows from at 2015, if not December 2014 breached before the reversal took hold. That would have given a good flush to weak handed holders. For now, the major indices remain […]
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Date: January 30, 2015
Fed Day Model and Trend
The FOMC concludes their two day meeting today, surviving the “epic” and “historic” blizzard. The model for the trading day is to see stocks in a plus or minus range of 0.50%, but generally we see mildly rising prices until 2pm and then increased volatility with an upward bias to the close. The Fed trend is to be long the stock market from yesterday’s close to today’s close based on a variety of historical factors. That trend has an accuracy […]
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Date: January 28, 2015
Bears to Pounce at the Open
Stocks look to open sharply lower this morning on a variety of news events, although none that are singularly that bad. Greece is in the headlines yet again and frankly, if they are going to exit, let’s just get it over with. Their economy and market is not even a rounding error in the grand scheme of things, but a Grexit will open the door to the southern European countries saber rattling about an exit if they are not bailed […]
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Date: January 27, 2015
Lots of News This Week
While last week was certainly news filled, this week will be even busier as the northeast plans for another snowmageddon. At the bus stop this morning, our new neighbors who are from Dublin talked about the more than 10 cases of water they bought. When I stopped laughing, I asked them what they planned to do with all that water. And while they were at it, I asked them if they also bought canned goods and ammo! That conversation gave […]
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Date: January 27, 2015
Draghi & ECB Deliver
It’s a very busy week for the markets and economy coming off the ECB’s long anticipated announcement of Euro QE last week. On the one hand I thought it was smart to leak the $50B euros per month plan so that markets could digest it ahead of the official statement. It was also a great move to then exceed the number that was leaked by $10B euros. On the other hand, I am not in favor of this piecemeal approach […]
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Date: January 26, 2015
7 Years Ago
As I drove home from Vermont today on Martin Luther King Day, I thought about past MLK Days, which is something I would normally do to pass the time away. My two boys were in the back seat napping and listening to music and I had Sirius on in the background. I vividly recall MLK Day 1994 as it was the single coldest day I have ever skied at Mount Snow, -25F with 20 mph winds that made it feel […]
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Date: January 20, 2015
Early Warning System & January Barometer
With the first five days of January officially in the books, the Early Warning System (EWS) pioneered by Yale Hirsch is flashing a positive sign for the rest of January as well as 2015. The theory says that as go the first five trading days of the new year, so goes January. And as goes January, so goes the year. With help from my friend Carter Worth of Stern Agee (Carter did the heavy lifting and I peppered him with […]
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Date: January 12, 2015
Another “V” for the Bulls… Must Run from Here
As I have written before, since mid 2012 the stock market has seen more “V” bottoms than in all previous years combined. “V” bottoms went from being very rare to becoming the norm. With each successive low, investors are changing their buying behavior to accept the “new” behavior as the norm. In my view, this is setting up the masses for yet another 2000-2002 or 2008 style wealth decimation. So now that we have yet another confirmed “V” bottom, which […]
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Date: January 9, 2015
Waiting for Warm & Fuzzy
The “traditional” Santa Claus Rally ended in the red for the stock market and that’s not a warm and fuzzy sign heading into 2015. Through the first 3+ days into 2015, small cap stocks are not leading their large cap brethren and that’s not a warm and fuzzy sign. Stocks sold off hard to begin the year and that hasn’t been a warm and fuzzy sign. Today, the bull are trying to make a stand after seeing yet another 5% […]
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Date: January 7, 2015
First “Key” Day of 2015
It’s only the second trading day of 2015, but I am going to get a little dramatic and say for the short-term, it’s somewhat of a key day. The second trading day of the year is seasonally a very strong one. Given the 1%+ down day to end 2014, there is a trend to see significant strength during the first week of the New Year to counter that unusual down day. Today is also the end of what many refer […]
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Date: January 5, 2015
Don’t Count the Bulls Out to Begin 2015
Welcome to 2015! Wishing you and your family a very Happy, Healthy, Safe and Peaceful New Year! Stocks finished 2014 with a whimper rather than a bang as the lack of liquidity allowed sellers to move prices sharply lower on Wednesday. The last two days of December have become somewhat of a headwind lately, but that weakness is supposed to be reversed next week. As bullish as I was over the past few weeks on the small cap Russell 2000, […]
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Date: January 1, 2015
Homestretch
This is it. Three more trading days and 2014 will be in the books as they say. Just 8 trading days ago, the bears were beating their chests yet again about how the bull market ended or the stock market was in 10%+ correction or a whole host of other nonsense. I wrote it right at the October bottom and I did the same thing 8 days ago; the bull market is old yet alive and weakness should be bought […]
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Date: December 28, 2014
Santa Ain’t Messin’ Around
The stock market bottom this week wasn’t as pessimism laden as the one in October, but it was certainly fun nonetheless! And just like I did in October, I gave readers a few days notice to prepare for the low. Frankly, this was easy. While it was a slightly soft seasonal time, the market sold off a few percent more than it should have which is part of the reason the rebound has been so robust. December is a haven […]
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Date: December 19, 2014
Santa Claus is Starting to Call… Right on Time
Over the past few weeks as stocks declined I remained firm in my forecast that Santa Claus would pay the markets a visit as he typically does in bull markets. One by one, I heard from people why this year was different, why stocks are already in a bear market, why oil would consume the market. I targeted this week and early next for the low as history suggests and for the rally to begin. Yesterday was also a very […]
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Date: December 18, 2014
Fed & Yellen on Hot Seat Today
The Federal Open Market Committee (Fed or FOMC) concludes their two day and final meeting of 2014 on Wednesday with their announcement at 2pm and subsequent press conference with Janet Yellen. Interest rates will not be raised. Market watchers will parse the statement to see if Yellen & Co. remove the “considerable time” phrase for low interest rates from the release, signaling that rates may increase sooner than later. Should those words continue in the statement, I would expect stocks […]
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Date: December 17, 2014
Santa Claus Rally Just Around Corner
Big picture. Late October through mid January is the strongest seasonal period to invest in stocks. That’s fact. Over a similar but slightly different period, the semiconductors are the strongest group to invest in. Just since the October bottom, they are up 27% and I am very glad we own them in our sector program. They made up for some crummy positions we have held during the same time. Early December shows some slightly negative seasonal headwinds, like we are […]
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Date: December 10, 2014
Feel is not Real
I have been playing golf for the better part of of 40+ years and I have taken my fair share of lessons. I can’t tell you how many times I have commented to my teacher that something “doesn’t feel right” or this “feels weird.” And each and every time the response has been the same; “feel is not real.” If you typically walk with a slight hunch, try walking really tall to understand what I mean. It feels funny, but […]
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Date: December 8, 2014
The Greatest Financial Experiment Ever
This article is a follow up to emails I received after my segment on CNBC’s Squawk Box last week regarding the unexpected news from Japan. Here is the link. Japan in Recession… Who Cares Japan has been in the news of late with the unexpectedly poor economic report indicating their economy has fallen back into recession. As I discussed last week on CNBC as well as Yahoo Finance, it really doesn’t matter at this stage. Japan has embarked on the […]
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Date: December 1, 2014
Holiday Tailwind then Headwind for Stocks
Historically, this is a quiet week for the markets with an upward bias. In other words, stocks usually drift higher without much fanfare. The market looks a little tired, but reaction may have to wait until after the country stuffs itself with food, football and fun. To begin the new week after the holiday, stocks usually experience a headwind where mild weakness is seen. Of course, since early 2012 most of the negatives suggested by history have been thrown out […]
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Date: November 25, 2014
Dow 20,000 and How We’ll Get There
My longstanding target of Dow 18,000 is now within a day or two reach if the bulls can muster the energy by Thanksgiving. If not, they may to wait until later in December. As you have read for several years, the bull market is old, but alive and should live on until enough people throw in the towel and stop predicting doom and gloom on every single digit pullback. If and when the Dow closes above 18,000 for a week, […]
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Date: November 21, 2014
