Bulls Have Room to Run
Having turned negative on stocks on April 21, I warned last week that our models were close to turning positive again. What I didn’t realize at the time was that it was going to happen just a few hours later and confirmed on Monday. If you recall, I wasn’t expecting anything major on the downside, just some normal and healthy weakness, or a pause to refresh before heading higher again. I did believe that it would be the largest pullback […]
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Date: May 27, 2016
Bears Still in Control but Bulls Getting Closer
As you know from the suddenly negative piece below, I temporarily abandoned my bullish stance on April 21. At that time, we significantly raised cash, hedged and/or purchased securities that don’t perform with the stock market. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20160501.pdf At that time and every week since on www.investfortomorrowblog.com, I did not believe that stocks were on the verge of collapse or that a new bear market was unfolding. It just looked like a normal, healthy and much needed pullback that should end […]
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Date: May 20, 2016
Plodding through the Pullback
Not much has changed this week. As has been the case since April 21, I am still looking for lower prices, but nothing dramatic. The selling has been orderly and constructive. The NYSE advance/decline remains very strong and healthy, not what you typically see during bear markets or large declines. High yield (junk) bonds, which we have owned for months, continue to behave very well with oil stable and rising. The major stock market indices are only a few percent […]
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Date: May 18, 2016
“Bounce” Teetering
The “bounce” I mentioned here remains alive although it is living on borrowed time. I continue to believe the ultimate low remains in front of us. Retail and consumer discretionary stocks have been the latest to take it on the chin with a slew of poor earnings from Macy’s Nordstroms, etc. This sector is one of my key vital four groups and it’s important for the bull market’s health to keep the majority of them moving forward. While I do […]
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Date: May 13, 2016
Here Comes the Bounce
The major stock market indices staged an impressive comeback on Friday as they all reversed early losses to close nicely higher. Given the very orderly pullback along with some modest losses of roughly 3% except in the NASDAQ, the odds now favor the bulls stepping up right here for at least a short-term bounce. Should the bounce materialize, the next question will be if it’s a bounce all the way to new highs or just back towards 18,000 before rolling […]
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Date: May 9, 2016
Crushing the Doubters
I know I must sound like a broken record, but boy, have the bulls been tough to fight. Just when the bears think a deeper pullback has started, the bulls step up again and power stocks higher. After an unexpected turnaround on Monday from the early weakness after the lack of OPEC production cuts, stocks are pausing once again. Earnings season is in full swing and we have heard time and time again how this is the worst earnings since […]
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Date: April 20, 2016
All-Time Highs On the Way, But…
After a 24 hour trip to Houston, I am happily back home.Thanks to the Houston MTA for hosting me and inviting me to speak at their chapter meeting. I really enjoyed my time there. It was also good to see clients, colleagues and friends, all in 24 hours! When I look back over my posts since the bottom, there has been one common theme. The bulls are in control. Higher prices to follow. Expect brief and mild pullbacks. Continue to […]
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Date: April 14, 2016
Give the Bears a Break
Last Friday, I wrote about stocks looking a little sleepy, but that higher prices would eventually prevail. For the 6th time since the rally began on February 11th, the stock market is pulling back. It’s normal, healthy and expected. No need to panic. The bears should be out in force shortly with calls of another correction or resumption of the bear market. But let’s give them a break; they have had so little to celebrate for almost two months. The […]
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Date: April 5, 2016
History Says Higher, but Stocks a Little Sleepy
Stocks ended the quarter just shy of fresh highs and booked a huge 6%+ return for March. Historically, that portends more upside over the first week of April. Speaking of April, it is one of the strongest months of the year. Most of the long-term studies I have done and read indicate higher prices 6 and 12 months out. On the flip side, stocks have looked a little sleepy over the past two days and today is the monthly release […]
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Date: April 1, 2016
Bye Bye March & Q1
Last day of the month. Last day of the quarter. What a ride it’s been although if you fell asleep on New Year’s Eve and woke up today, you might conclude it was a quiet three months with the Dow up a few hundred and points and the S&P up 1%. As we all know, it was anything but dull. March is on pace to return more than 6% after an historically weak start to the year. This kind of […]
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Date: March 31, 2016
